A
Where can I find stocks?
The inventory of non-ferrous metals is stored in all links of the industrial chain in various forms. Taking metallic copper as an example, upstream mines will have copper mine stocks, smelters will have raw material stocks, finished products will have electrolytic copper stocks, traders will have spot stocks, all exchanges will have futures trading stocks, downstream processing enterprises will have raw material stocks and finished copper stocks, and terminal enterprises will have some finished copper stocks. With so many forms of inventory, investors are most concerned about the subject matter inventory in the futures market-the total inventory of copper plate. If the inventory is high and the inventory/consumption ratio is high, it is bad news for the market, that is to say, the goods can't be sold everywhere, so in order to withdraw funds, the smelter holding the goods may have to sell at a reduced price, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise; On the contrary, low inventory will increase price fluctuation, and speculators are willing to hoard goods to raise prices.
It can be seen that the inventory of copper plates can directly affect the price trend and the judgment of market participants, thus causing price fluctuations. Therefore, inventory is an important indicator of non-ferrous metal futures prices. If we can observe all the inventory changes of a variety, we can clearly feel the supply and demand structure and contradictions of the variety, so as to make price judgments according to the trend. Unfortunately, we can only see a small part of the inventory data. This part of inventory data is called explicit inventory, and the other part of invisible data is called implicit inventory. In most cases, the trend change of dominant inventory is consistent with that of total inventory, so dominant inventory can generally be used as a reference. Taking copper as an example, the common explicit inventory generally refers to the inventory of three major exchanges (London Metal Exchange, Shanghai Metal Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange), which can be counted as spot inventory (in-factory inventory, non-exchange trader inventory) and bonded inventory. Copper plate stocks are distributed all over the world. As far as the London Metal Exchange is concerned, it has several warehouses, and currently there are 26 warehouses in America, Europe and Asia. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is mainly distributed in the consumption areas of East China and South China.
The growth of inventory conforms to the seasonal changes of supply and demand, and the corresponding inventory is digested fastest in the peak demand season, but it increases relatively in the off-season. The inventory cycle of non-ferrous metals also conforms to the overall cycle of industrial products. The four seasons are characterized by four stages: active destocking, passive destocking, active replenishment and passive replenishment. From this dimension, we can also see the change of supply and demand, thus positioning the price. Active replenishment of inventory means strong demand, which is the process of expanding the production scale and operating rate of enterprises. If the inventory starts to rise from a low level, the inventory consumption rate is low and the price is strong; Passive replenishment refers to the fact that real demand can't keep up with the pace of production expansion, inventory consumption becomes higher and prices begin to fall. Taking the initiative to go to inventory means that the demand shrinks faster, and enterprises are forced to stop working and sell at reduced prices, which makes the inventory begin to decline. This is a process in which prices accelerate and stop falling smoothly. Passive destocking is the process of downstream demand recovery and inventory passive decline, and the corresponding price will rebound.
B
Dry-Kun transfer of colored inventory
"All the hustle and bustle in the world is for the benefit, and all the hustle and bustle in the world is for the benefit." The circulation of commodities is inseparable from the drive of interests. Due to the time problem of logistics and the inconsistency of supply and demand structure at home and abroad, the inventory of non-ferrous metals often changes greatly. The three most common changes are: from bonded inventory to domestic spot inventory, from explicit inventory to implicit inventory, and from stock exchange to stock exchange.
In fact, these three major changes are all profit-driven, which can be analyzed through import profit and loss and spot structure. These three major shifts do not exist alone, but are more complex ecological circles. Taking copper as an example to analyze these goods flowing back and forth, there are three driving interests: one is the import profit, the other is the financing profit, and the third is the profit brought by moving warehouses. The key to the convergence of the two lies in regional premium, spread, spread and price structure.
Regional premium reflects different supply and demand structures in different regions. When the spread and the spread are not obvious, the regional premium will drive the transportation from the producing country to the consumption area, and the import profit will be good, and the goods will flood into the inventory of the region in large quantities (implicit and explicit). Spread and spread will form hidden inventory and gradually form a reservoir. When the reservoir is formed, it will accelerate the circulation brought by import profit and loss, and the hidden inventory will become the dominant inventory. If the price structure is favorable, some registered warehouse receipts will go to the futures market, and at the same time, domestic smelters will also deliver some goods, making domestic hidden inventory become explicit inventory. Spreads and hidden stocks brought by spreads can be called "financing copper", and the reverse transaction of financial spreads needs to be carried out through acceptance bills. The cost of putting this part in the delivery warehouse of the exchange is high, so it can't be reflected in the stock of the exchange, and it can be sold on the disk to earn the spread between bank acceptance bills and financial products. At present, the bank is strictly audited and needs real trade documents and bills of lading as endorsements. Therefore, some domestic copper is locked in this arbitrage. As long as there is arbitrage space, the shadow inventory of packaging business provided by this part of domestic trade has been locked.
In addition to China Stock Exchange, there are also shares of London Metal Exchange (LME) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) abroad. When the total inventory is unchanged, the inventory of the exchange also changes. However, the change of the stock of exchanges is not simply a big transfer between exchanges, but also a connection of interests. The decline of overseas LME inventory is not directly related to the increase of Shanghai Futures Exchange and COMEX inventory in the United States. As far as China is concerned, the bonded warehouse can flow into China more quickly, and LME is not qualified to deliver the warehouse in China's bonded area. Comparing the premium gap between bonded area and LME, the proportion of imports directly delivered from LME is relatively small. If the decline of LME inventory is accompanied by drastic changes in the price structure, such as the spot price is much higher than the far-month price, then the inventory is really consumed, but it is often consumed slowly before the drastic changes in the price structure. The decline of LME inventory is related to large foreign traders, that is, it is transformed into overseas hidden inventory. From the positions announced by LME, it can be seen that individual large households hold a high proportion of positions, monopolize warehouse receipts, and sometimes the cancellation of warehouse receipts can also rise rapidly. The main purpose is to control goods and squeeze empty positions, that is, to squeeze out the space for moving positions to earn profits. In fact, LME goods may not have been moved out of the warehouse, but only moved from LME supervised warehouse to non-supervised scope. This is a game of changing the left hand into the right hand, turning the explicit inventory into the implicit inventory. Similarly, when the global refined copper flows into China at a premium and the import demand in the United States rises, the change of financing cost in the United States will lead to the change between explicit inventory and implicit inventory of copper.
It is meaningless to look at the explicit inventory of the exchange alone. For the price, it depends on the overall change of increment. Dynamic inventory is a stock story driven by interests, which can help us to see the microstructure of the market and find trading opportunities and better investment targets in the futures market.
skill
Good brothers of inventory price structure
Non-ferrous markets often hear two English words: "futures premium" and "falling back". Translated into Chinese, it means "premium" or "futures premium" or "spot premium". "Premium" means that under normal supply and demand relations, the spot price is relatively lower than the futures price, and the recent contract price is lower than the forward contract price. Because the basis relationship between the near low and the far high of the contract reflects the normal position fee, it is also called positive market. "Back" means that under special circumstances, the spot price is higher than the futures price (or the contract price in recent months is higher than the contract price in forward months), and the basis is positive. In the reverse market, with the passage of time, the spot price and futures price will gradually converge to the delivery month, just like in the forward market.
C
Futures inventory that cannot be delivered to "commodities"
"There are no two identical leaves in the world", and the copper plates and zinc ingots circulating in the market are not exactly the same. The deviation of technology brings the deviation of quality. Futures is a long-term standard, and the definition of the standard will also distinguish the quality gap. Not all goods can enter the futures warehouse for delivery. If the goods are available but not delivered, what impact will it have on the price?
In order to understand the impact of delivery, we must first understand what delivery is. The delivery involved in non-ferrous metal futures refers to physical delivery, that is, when the futures contract expires, both parties transfer the ownership of the goods contained in the futures contract and settle the expired open contract. It is to transfer the property rights of copper plates, electrolytic aluminum, zinc ingots, lead ingots and nickel plates. Up to standard. If a short seller prepares for delivery, but finds that the product does not meet the delivery standard, it is bound to buy the delivery product again, which will bring about changes in the supply and demand structure of short-term delivery products. In the actual trading process, the market understands this phenomenon, and the bulls will forcibly open positions. When the metal nickel futures 20 15 was first listed, there was a storm of forced liquidation because of the delivery regulations, and the nickel price fluctuated greatly. Based on the lack of delivery products at that time and the difficulty in purchasing Jinchuan nickel, the bulls expected that it would be difficult for bears to produce standard products for delivery, so they began to raise prices. Before the delivery brand joined the exchange, domestic nickel futures rose sharply, which also formed a big price difference with Wuxi electronic disk at that time. Before the listing of nickel futures, domestic enterprises mainly hedged nickel varieties through foreign LME market and domestic Wuxi stainless steel electronic disk. Due to the shortage of nickel resources in China, the main products circulating in the market are imported nickel (mainly Russian nickel). At that time, the spot electronic disk was mainly "Russian nickel", and the domestic Jinchuan nickel had a premium of 500 yuan/ton because of its higher quality. The fundamentals of short-term nickel have not changed much. However, due to the lack of futures standards, it is impossible to deliver, and the price difference between metal nickel and Wuxi market in futures has risen from 2000 yuan/ton to 10000 yuan/ton, which is much higher than the usual price difference. This soaring situation did not gradually return to normal until the exchange increased the delivery products and talked with some bulls in the later period. However, the name "demon nickel" entered the hearts of traders from the beginning of listing and left a deep impression on the non-ferrous metal trading circle.
Deliverables and undeliverables will cause market tension, and the different quality of deliverables will also bring good trading opportunities. The goods that can be delivered will be divided again according to the quality. Zinc with better quality than metallic zinc is super-grade zinc, which is more expensive than ordinary flat zinc. In the actual trade transaction process, sometimes there is a gap between premium and the standard varieties of the exchange, and this gap will also give non-ferrous metal traders an opportunity. For example, observe the price difference of various zinc grades in the spot market, constantly find zinc with poor cost performance from the spot market and sell it to the futures market, and at the same time buy zinc with high cost performance from the futures market and sell it to the spot market to earn the price difference.
Background story
The first zinc ingot in New China
The earliest zinc smelting technology in China can be traced back to the late Ming Dynasty. The first zinc ingot since the founding of New China is the "Shanghai Zinc" brand zinc ingot produced by Huludao Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. (formerly Huludao Zinc Factory). As the originator of vertical zinc smelting in China, Huludao Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. took the lead in entering the European and American markets with its good quality in the early stage of reform and opening up, and exported to more than 40 countries and regions. Today, Huludao Zinc Industry Co., Ltd., as a large-scale heavy nonferrous metal smelting enterprise in Northeast China and North China, is widely used in metallurgy, machinery, electronics, medicine, chemical industry, military industry and other industries and sells well at home and abroad.