Then, because the current pig cycle is about to bottom out, the market is bullish on the future pig price trend, and the stock of fertile sows is increasing instead of decreasing. There are more and more phenomena of "binary fertile sows" snapping up in the market, and some pig farms even have the phenomenon of "business turning to mother".
In the supply and marketing of live pigs in the domestic market, due to the bullish market environment, the number of live pigs is gradually shrinking, the breeding end is waiting for the price to be sold, the sentiment of holding down stalls is prominent, the procurement of slaughterhouses is more difficult, the management and control of large pig enterprises are obvious, and the phenomenon that downstream traders raise prices to collect pigs is enhanced. Under the performance of "grabbing pigs" many times in China, the price of live pigs in the market is "unstoppable" and the price of pigs has risen to a new stage!
According to the data, the domestic pig price has risen to 7.9 yuan/Jin, and will soon surpass 8 yuan/Jin. However, in the north and south of China, the pig price in many places in the north has gradually entered the "8 yuan era", and even in the low-priced area of Heijiliao, the pig price has risen to 7.5~7.7 yuan/kg.
Pig prices in most areas of South China, Sichuan, Chongqing and East China have entered the "8 yuan era", and pig prices in Guangdong and Guangxi markets in South China have further increased. Because Guangdong faces difficulties in importing live pigs from other provinces, local farmers are in a bad mood, and pig sources from slaughterhouses to factories are losing money. Supported by the favorable market, some high-priced pig sources increased by 9.3~9.5 yuan/kg, and pig prices increased by 10 yuan. Will the price of pigs rise above 10 yuan/Jin?
Personally, this round of pig prices soared in a short time, from about 6. 1 yuan/kg to 7.9 yuan/kg, the bottom of pig prices moved up, and the market generally sideways 8 yuan/kg. This aspect is affected by the fundamentals of pig supply. After all, there were more losses before the breeding end and the pressure was poor. Some small-weight pigs were slaughtered ahead of schedule, and the phenomenon of secondary fattening was also silent, and the supply of pigs gradually increased. With the gradual easing of the problem of pork storage and domestic masks, terminal consumption has grown slowly, and the market price of pigs has increased significantly. However, due to the soaring futures of piglets and main pigs, this further aggravated the market sentiment of high prices. Domestic supply of pigs is insufficient, and there are even fewer pig sources from slaughterhouses to factories. Under the game of supply and demand, the pig price has shown an irresistible trend!
However, the price of live pigs has risen against the trend. Personally, I think that the price of live pigs still does not have the basis to rise above 10 yuan/kg in the short term, especially the two new changes in pig farms!
On the one hand, the amount of pigs slaughtered is reduced, and the pressure on the breeding end is increased. In some areas, the weight of pigs continues to increase. Although the supply of live pigs in China is decreasing, there is no shortage of pigs in the market at this stage. After the breeding end is under pressure for a short period of time, with the domestic pig price gradually rising above the cost line of autotrophic fattening, under the harsh environment of high temperature and high humidity, the pig farm may become more emotional and the market may be trampled.
On the other hand, after the Spring Festival, the domestic pig price is low, the consumption support is poor, some fresh white strips are in poor condition, and the phenomenon that fresh white strips are frozen in slaughterhouses has increased. At present, the domestic mainstream slaughterhouses have sufficient stocks of frozen pork. With the increase of domestic hog price, the market price of pork is also rising. The price of ordinary pork in some rural markets has risen to 13 ~ 16 yuan/kg, which is 3 ~ 6 yuan higher than that in early April. The sharp rise in meat prices is conducive to low-priced pork from slaughterhouses, while domestic consumption is still in the off-season, superposition, secondary fattening and pig weight gain, and the supply of pork in the market may be loose, and consumption constraints may be aggravated!
Therefore, based on the above analysis, although supported by multiple factors in the short term, pig prices will continue to rise. After this round of pig price increase, the domestic average pig price will rise to "8 prefix". However, due to the intensification of the game between supply and demand in the market, two new changes have emerged in the hog market. Therefore, there is still a risk of rising and falling pig prices. I personally predict that after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with the constraints of consumption and the further increase of temperature, the price of pigs will fluctuate and fall in the short term. It is difficult for domestic pig prices to rise above 10 yuan/kg in the short term, and the market may fluctuate sideways. In the "Golden September and Silver October" month, the price of pigs may rise above 10 yuan/kg!
Catch a pig! The rise in pig prices can't be stopped. Will it break through 10 yuan/kg? Beware of two new changes! What do you think of this? The above is the author's personal opinion, the pictures are from the internet, and the content is for reference only!
# Pig market #