The specific market shows that the futures price of light crude oil (WTI) in the New York Mercantile Exchange 165438+ 10 once rose by more than 6%, reaching a maximum of $84.53/barrel, and the current increase has narrowed to about 4%, reporting $82.85/barrel; Brent crude oil futures for February delivery on the Intercontinental Exchange now rose by 3.7% to $88.30/barrel, almost exceeding the $90 mark at the highest.
This Wednesday (June 5438+1October 5), the member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC oil-producing countries such as Russia will hold the monthly routine meeting of the "OPEC+"mechanism.
According to several media reports, a source familiar with Saudi energy policy revealed that Saudi Arabia, which will dominate OPEC+at that time, may push the organization to announce a substantial reduction in production.
This echoes a report last week. At that time, a person clearly pointed out that OPEC+was "very close" to announce production cuts again; The other two are more conservative, only revealing that member countries did talk about this topic, but the potential reduction in production is still unclear.
HelimaCroft, head of commodity strategy at RBCCA Capital Markets, an investment bank, said: "We also observed that oil cartels are likely to choose to cut production significantly." Last week, Croft predicted that the production reduction might be in the range of 500- 1 10,000 barrels per day, which is equivalent to about 1% of the global supply.
Sources familiar with Saudi energy policy responded that this scale reduction seems possible. In his view, the oil market has been oversupplied, and demand is still weakening due to the global economic downturn.
The oil price tug-of-war escalated.
Some media called OPEC+'s "potential" decision to cut production this week a major turning point for the organization.
Nearly a month ago (September 5), OPEC+lowered the oil production level of 10 by 654.38+10,000 barrels per day, which surprised many traders who predicted the same output, because the oil price above $90 per barrel was already squeezing global consumers.
At that time, the Saudi Energy Minister explained that this was a proactive and forward-looking decision, which showed an "attitude" of the organization-the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries focused on supporting the stable and effective operation of the market.
If OPEC+really cuts production sharply this week, it will almost mean an escalation of contradictions with the United States and other western countries. According to market analysis, Saudi Arabia seems determined to raise oil prices to more than $90 per barrel, which is unacceptable to the United States and Europe.
At present, many countries in Europe and America are facing high inflation. In order to alleviate the high price of energy, they not only sold their oil reserves many times, but even many heads of state, including Biden, went to the Gulf countries to ask for increased production.
Goldman Sachs, the top investment bank, analyzed that OPEC+production reduction will help strengthen the market's expectation of the upward trend of oil prices and help limit the decline of oil prices. Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish view on oil and its preference for long-term crude oil positions, and extended the positions to the end of the year.