At this stage, domestic food is self-sufficient, and successive bumper harvests ensure that food prices are basically stable, and it is difficult for food prices to fluctuate greatly. However, the price of rice is very low this year, and it is not a day or two. One year's grain price increase has affected wheat, corn and soybeans, but there is no rice.
The Spring Festival is less than 20 days away. Will rice go up before the Spring Festival? What will happen to the rice price trend after the year? Let's take a look at the rice price analysis of the Spring Festival in 2022.
The latest situation of rice market
The price of rice in 2022 is very low. Up to now, the supply of japonica rice is sufficient and the price is weak. The mainstream price is around 1.20- 1.38 yuan/kg. The price of glutinous rice has risen steadily, and some farmers are reluctant to sell it.
The listing of mid-late indica rice is coming to an end, and the purchase price is about 1.25- 1.35 yuan. As of this Friday, the purchase price of grass roots is about 1.26- 1.27 yuan/kg, and the ex-factory price of rice enterprises is 1.28- 1.30 yuan/kg.
The purchase price of individual grain depots was directly adjusted to 1.32 yuan/kg, and the previous highest price reached 1.35- 1.37 yuan/kg, so the purchaser was very cautious. Why is rice alone depressed this year?
Adequate rice reserves
In recent years, rice production is high and rice stocks are sufficient. It is understood that the company's rice inventory has reached more than 46 million tons, and there is no shortage of rice supply. In addition, this year's production area has been in good weather and the output has reached a historical record. The total output of rice has exceeded 650 million tons, and the price is hard to rise.
An increase in imports
China is the largest rice importer, importing about 4 million tons of rice every year. Rice imports have doubled this year, twice as much as last year. Due to the basic self-sufficiency, the import volume will increase again this year, which will not cause the domestic rice price to increase too much.
Will rice rise before the Spring Festival in 2022?
Up to now, the supply of japonica rice is sufficient and the price is weak. The mainstream price is around 1.20- 1.38 yuan/kg. The price of glutinous rice has risen steadily, and some farmers are reluctant to sell it.
Moreover, the mid-late indica rice market is coming to an end, and the purchase price is around 1.25- 1.35 yuan. According to the current market analysis, it is difficult to adjust the price of mid-late indica rice before and after the Spring Festival.
The output of long-grain fragrant rice is large this year, and it is unlikely that the price will rise in the short term. At present, the mainstream export price is between 1.85-2 yuan/kg.
As the year is approaching, farmers are accelerating their grain sales and eager to cash in. By the end of last year, the sales volume of rice was almost the same, and the price will go up. Now that the Spring Festival is approaching, the rice market is not driven by the Spring Festival.
Therefore, under the dual support of stock market purchase and reserve rotation, it is expected that the price of mid-late indica rice will fluctuate within a narrow range around the minimum purchase price in the short term.