It is a method to analyze the influence of actual supply and demand of commodities on commodity prices. This analytical method focuses on the implementation of national political, economic, financial policies, laws and regulations, and the direct or indirect influence of factors such as commodity production, consumption, import and export volume and inventory on commodity supply and demand.
The fluctuation of commodity prices is mainly influenced by basic factors such as market supply and demand, that is, any economic factor that reduces supply or increases consumption will lead to the change of price increase; On the contrary, any factor that increases supply or decreases commodity consumption will lead to an increase in inventory and a decrease in price. However, with the development of modern economy, some non-supply and demand factors are also playing an increasingly important role in the changes of futures prices, which makes the futures market more complicated and unpredictable. The basic factors affecting price changes can be summarized as the following eight aspects:
(1) supply and demand. Futures trading is the product of market economy and developed on the basis of spot trading of commodities. Commodity futures price is an expected reflection of the relationship between supply and demand of commodities. Therefore, the change of commodity futures price is influenced by the relationship between supply and demand of commodities in the market. When the supply of commodities exceeds demand, the corresponding futures prices fall; On the contrary, futures prices will rise. Therefore, we should pay attention to other factors such as carry-over inventory, output, production report, climate, economic situation, supply and demand of substitutes, global competition and so on.
(2) Economic cycle. In the futures market, price changes are also affected by the economic cycle, and price fluctuations will occur at all stages of the economic cycle.
(3) Seasonal factors. Many futures commodities, especially agricultural products, have obvious seasonality, and their prices fluctuate with the changes of seasons.
(4) Factors of financial market changes. In the process of world economic development, the fluctuation of inflation, currency exchange rate and interest rate has become a common phenomenon in economic life, which has brought increasingly obvious influence on futures market and commodity futures.
(5)** policy. Some policies and measures formulated by the state will have different degrees of impact on the futures market price.
(6) Political factors. The futures market is very sensitive to the change of political climate, and the occurrence of various political events will often have different degrees of impact on prices.
(7) Social factors. Social factors refer to the public's ideas, social psychological trends and the information influence of the media.
(8) Psychological factors. The so-called psychological factors are traders' confidence in the market, commonly known as "popularity". If you are optimistic about a commodity, even if there are no obvious favorable factors, the price of the commodity will rise; When bearish, there is no obvious bearish news, and the price will also fall. Another example is that some big market participants and bookmakers often use people's psychological factors to spread some news and artificially buy or sell in large quantities to seek speculative profits.