Data show that since 2005, China's refined oil prices have been lower than the international average, but since 10 this year, the decline in international crude oil prices and the rise in domestic oil prices have finally ended the long-term price inversion in the refined oil market. For the first time, the prices of gasoline, diesel oil and aviation kerosene in China are higher than those of similar overseas products. As a result, various financial institutions have predicted that the National Development and Reform Commission, which has been paying close attention to the international crude oil market, may cut the price of refined oil in the near future to make final preparations for realizing the market-oriented pricing of refined oil.
The surge in international crude oil prices began with the Iraq war in 2003. Worried about the decline of oil supply, the international crude oil price started, and the rapid growth of the world economy further pushed up people's expectations of oil consumption. Coupled with the substantial involvement of financial speculation, oil prices have soared, even reaching 144 USD/barrel in mid-July this year. Looking back, it must be admitted that the speculation ratio in the oil futures market is as high as 2/3, pushing up the oil price. The international oil market with relatively stable output and consumption has deviated from the spot pricing track based on the relationship between supply and demand. Several increases in production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will only lead to even crazier retaliatory speculation in the market. The major oil companies have also admitted to the US Congress that the price of crude oil has been significantly higher than its production cost, and Wall Street has become the main force in oil market pricing. However, with the expansion of the subprime mortgage crisis, more and more banks are involved, and the liquidity of the financial market is constantly challenged. The rupture of the capital chain has curbed this wave of crazy oil speculation to some extent. The price of oil has finally come down slowly.
In reality, no one can determine the reasonable range of oil prices, but the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries hinted at the possible limited production of oil last weekend, saying that the price of crude oil below $80 harmed the interests of oil exporting countries, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, as a supplier, would prevent the price of crude oil from falling further. At the same time, the U.S. government introduced the specific measures of the financial market rescue plan, and the direct capital injection into banks improved the liquidity of the financial market. The American stock market and futures market finally rebounded, and the price of crude oil rose to $80. The possible weakening of the dollar will also affect the oil price settled in dollars to some extent. Therefore, the further sharp adjustment of international crude oil prices may be just a beautiful fantasy of refined oil consumers.
On the other hand, in the domestic market, the decline in international oil prices makes the price reduction of refined oil lose its foundation. Recently, due to the lag of policy adjustment, the possibility of downward adjustment of refined oil prices still exists, but it is not so urgent. The National Development and Reform Commission may give more consideration to taking advantage of the low and relatively stable international crude oil prices, gradually promote the market-oriented pricing of refined oil products, and launch the long-awaited domestic oil futures in due course. This not only conforms to the general law of market economy, but also helps the domestic refining industry to get out of the predicament of policy loss. In addition, in recent years, policy documents on energy conservation and emission reduction have been issued from national to local governments. The increase in the purchase tax on large-displacement vehicles and the traffic control of "driving one day less every week" implemented in Beijing all reflect the firm attitude of the country on energy and environmental issues. Under such a policy background, the sharp reduction of oil prices will undoubtedly become a sudden dissonance. So we don't have much reason to be optimistic about the recent avalanche of international crude oil prices, and the decline of domestic oil prices is not inevitable. For the majority of motorists, the market may not be as sweet as expected.