1, the price of high-quality rice has some room to rise, but the market sales volume is the key.

In 20 19, the price of ordinary rice changed little, basically fluctuating around the minimum purchase price, but if you look at the market conditions in various places carefully, you will find that the regional differences are obvious.

For example, it is also japonica rice. In mid-October of 2065438+2009/kloc-0, the average purchasing price of japonica rice in Jiangsu was 1.23 yuan/kg, and that in Northeast China was 1.37 yuan/kg. Among them, the price of japonica rice in Jilin is better, reaching 1.42 yuan/kg, which is higher than that in Jiangsu.

With the changes in the domestic consumer market, consumers buy rice not only to solve the problem of food and clothing, but also to pursue quality. As long as the rice tastes good and sells well, the price is acceptable, which also provides conditions for the price increase of high-quality rice.

2. The system of buying rice in the market determines that it is difficult for rice prices to fluctuate obviously.

According to the habit of previous years, the minimum purchase price of rice in that year was generally issued in February, and the purchase price of rice in 2020 has not yet been issued. According to the situation in previous years, the purchase price in 2020 will not fluctuate greatly, at least it will not increase, and the probability of being the same as that in 20 19 is relatively high.

The purchase system of rice market began in 2004. In recent years, the cost of growing grain has changed greatly, but the price of rice has been very stable, mainly due to the influence of the entrusted market acquisition system. When grain sellers and grain merchants buy rice every year, the market price often refers to the lowest purchase price of the year. For example, in 20 19, the entrusted purchase price of japonica rice was 1.3 yuan/kg, and the price of grain collected by grain vendors from grass-roots farmers could not reach 1.5 yuan/kg, and even less could reach 1.3 yuan/kg. This change is greatly influenced by macro-control.

3. Ordinary rice is affected by high inventory, and there is limited room for growth.

Grain crops have been harvested for more than ten years in a row, and the output of early indica rice 20 19 decreased, but the annual grain output reached a record high, and the total rice output reached 419.2 billion Jin, which basically met the domestic market demand.

In addition, due to the long-term purchase system in the rice market, the enthusiasm of growers for growing grain is on the rise. During the period of 10, the planting area and output of rice have changed significantly, but they have not kept pace with the consumer market, which also makes the rice inventory high.

In order to digest the stock, temporary storage rice is auctioned every year, but the auction effect of temporary storage rice is not ideal, the transaction rate is often less than 3%, and sometimes there will be a phenomenon of auction, which means that there will be no shortage of food in the rice market in 2020, and it is difficult for food prices to rise.

4. The influence of imported grain sources still exists, and the change of domestic grain prices depends on the actual demand.

From a macro perspective, food imports will remain indispensable in 2020. Although the tariff import quota has been determined, compared with previous years, the imported grain sources will increase substantially in 2020, and some relatively low-priced rice will enter the China market, which will restrict the local rice market to some extent.

Of course, we need to treat imported rice rationally. It is unrealistic to think of not importing at all. What growers need to do is to improve the quality of rice and participate in the international market competition with high quality.

Since China's entry into WTO, the import of agricultural products represented by grain crops has not stopped. On the whole, the impact on domestic food prices is limited, and the real impact is the domestic market demand. Imported grain sources cannot shake the domestic price system.