Today is still the May Day holiday, but for the commodity market, under the influence of multiple factors such as the situation between Russia and Ukraine and Indonesia’s sudden suspension of palm oil export business, the market trend has not become stable due to the holiday.
The latest news shows that in the Chicago futures trading market, which opened on Monday, wheat futures prices fell sharply, falling to a nearly three-week low, driving corn and soybean commodity prices lower.
It is reported that since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine has been seeking ways to transport grains to Romania’s Black Sea ports through the Danube River in order to ensure grain exports.
Just last week, a cargo ship carrying 71,000 tons of Ukrainian corn was completed in the Romanian Black Sea port of Constanta, indicating that this export channel will restart Ukraine’s grain export market.
The news also said that another 80,000 tons of grain are also being transported.
In addition, data from Brazil also shows that the country’s corn exports in the first four months of this year will reach 850,000 tons, much higher than the 20,000 tons in the same period last year, which also raises market concerns about global grain supply. Somewhat relieved.
In the palm oil market, after Indonesia announced a ban on palm oil exports, Europe conducted exchanges with Malaysia, another palm oil exporter, on the use of palm oil and rapeseed oil in biofuels.
The latest news is that in view of the current tight supply of vegetable oils in the world, Europe may limit the use of rapeseed oil and palm oil in biofuels.
Affected by this news, most EU rapeseed oil quotes fell slightly by 15-50 euros per ton, and Chicago soybean oil futures prices also fell slightly to 82.84 cents per pound.
In addition, we have also received news that due to Indonesia’s restrictions on palm oil exports, it has indirectly provided a considerable amount of labor to Malaysia. About 32,000 Indonesian workers will quickly be added to the local palm chain. , alleviating the ongoing labor shortage in the local area.
But this does not mean that the market trend is clear.
At present, South Korea has made it clear that it will implement monitoring measures on palm oil supply, and India, which is the most affected, is considering further reducing import tariffs on edible oil.
Under the double impact of Ukrainian sunflower oil and Indonesian palm oil, the price of soybean oil, the world's largest vegetable oil, has soared.
Last Thursday, the export quotation of Argentine soybean oil in South America reached as high as US$1,900 per ton, approximately RMB 12,500, a year-on-year increase of 57% and a record high.
In the same period, the quotation received for Turkish sunflower oil bidding and procurement reached US$2,010, an increase of US$115 in one month.
In addition, the United States, currently the largest grain exporter in the northern hemisphere, has recently experienced delays in grain and food transportation due to tight railcars and labor, which will have an adverse impact on the recent grain trade.
In addition, India, which has recently played an important role in easing the international wheat supply situation, is currently experiencing a heat wave for the second consecutive month as its wheat waiting to be harvested, with the temperature soaring to nearly 40 degrees Celsius, which makes the market concerned. Expectations for new season wheat production have been significantly reduced.
Monitoring data shows that as of now, the export quotation of U.S. wheat is still at 439-497 US dollars/ton, the French wheat delivery price is 437 US dollars/ton, and the price of second-class wheat in Argentina is 450 US dollars/ton. , are all at historically high levels.
In the domestic market, affected by the increase in raw material prices last year, the purchase price of Ganyuan Food palm oil increased by 43.25%, and the purchase price of Arowana palm and lauric acid oil also increased by more than 30%.
Since the end of last year, some food companies have seen a wave of large-scale price increases, but this year's strong increase may lead to further price increases in the market.
In the corn and wheat markets that we focus on, the price of wheat has fallen from a high level recently due to the launch of new grains. However, the mainstream price is still around 1.6 yuan, and some companies have made reservations for new wheat. The price is also as high as about 1.4 yuan.
It is reported that, generally speaking, new wheat will not be put into the consumer field immediately after it is launched. It needs a post-ripening period of 1-2 months, which means that the mainstream cost price of the flour market will still be Wheat of 1.6 yuan is used as the benchmark.
Of course, for many ordinary consumers, the increase in the price of steamed buns from 1 yuan to 1.5 yuan will not increase the daily expenses of the family much. The same is true for cooking oil, but the rise in corn prices may The impact is wider.
Unlike wheat, which is about to usher in new grains on the market, domestic corn is currently in a lean period, and with the end of traders’ warehouse vacating activities to purchase wheat, the circulation of domestic corn is about to officially enter the market. In the downward channel, this is also one of the main reasons why domestic corn prices have been on a slight upward trend in recent times.
From the perspective of import channels, although Chinese buyers made four purchases of million-ton corn in April, buying a total of 4.54 million tons, the theoretical cost of corn imports from the United States It has been above 3,100 yuan for quite some time, and the prices of substitutes such as sorghum and barley are also around 3,000 yuan.
Therefore, the current mainstream corn price of 1.4 yuan in North China obviously still has the momentum to rise.
The good news is that the country has made a slight reduction in the bottom price of rice auctions after May Day, which is expected to increase the substitution of rice and corn.
In addition, there are rumors that the targeted auction of rice will be restarted after May Day, but the auction floor price may be slightly increased.
Overall, the corn market, supported by imports and substitutes, should not have much problem with market supply. Only costs will face greater upward pressure.
It is reported that domestic egg prices have begun to rise, and corn oil prices have also increased in recent times. In the pig breeding market, the mainstream field of corn consumption, pork prices also seem to have entered an upward channel. middle.
It is reported that although the market still has doubts about the price of live pigs and believes that the time for reversal has not yet come, from the price point of view, it is an indisputable fact that prices have continued to rise in recent times.
According to the pig price index released by Xinmu.com, the price of pigs in Guangdong exceeded 9 yuan/jin on May 1, and reached 9.5 yuan/jin in Huizhou and other places. On May 2, the national pig price Prices are also rising almost across the board, with the average price in Zhejiang, Fujian and other places also exceeding 8 yuan.
Finally, we would like to give a simple reply to a question raised by a netizen.
Some netizens asked, "Does the decline in the operating rate of corn deep processing enterprises this year and the current downturn in the breeding industry mean that corn consumption is declining?"
We say that this kind of sluggish market performance is more of a relative situation. For example, my country's corn deep processing capacity may have been 30 million tons five years ago, but now the market demand has increased to 80 million tons. Even though The current operating rate is less than 50%, and its market consumption is still far higher than in previous years.
The same is true in the pig breeding industry. However, judging from the data we have obtained from various parties, how much the production capacity of my country’s pig breeding industry has expanded from 2019 to 2021, the current market has not yet Have unified data.