At gas stations in the Washington area these two days, people often hear complaints about rising gasoline prices. You know, for a country where every two people own a car on average, the fluctuation of oil prices has always been closely related to the hearts of consumers. According to the latest data from the American Automobile Association, the average price of gasoline in the United States has increased by 19% in the past three months. Last week, the national oil price rose again, setting a new record set a week ago, reaching $65,438+$0.74 per gallon, the highest price of gasoline since 1986. Today, in Los Angeles and San Francisco, California, the average price of gasoline has reached $2 2. 15 and $2.35. On March 17, 2004, the U.S. Department of Energy reported a decrease in gasoline stocks in the United States. This is the seventh time in eight months that the Department of Energy has reported a decline in gasoline reserves. Some analysts predict that during the peak period of oil consumption in the United States this summer, the national average gasoline price may exceed $2 per gallon, which is obviously a great challenge to consumers' psychological endurance.
Thorsten Fischer, an economist in Economy.com, Pennsylvania Economic Research Institute, said that compared with 2002, American consumers spent $40 billion more on gasoline and natural gas for heating in 2003 because of rising energy prices. After weighing their money bags, Americans may have to re-plan their monthly domestic budgets.
Why is the price of gasoline soaring in the United States? The obvious reason is the shortage of global crude oil supply. At present, the price of crude oil has risen to $38 per barrel, which is the highest price of crude oil since 1990 10+06. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is unwilling to increase the crude oil production quota, and major oil companies have not increased their production while increasing their demand. Some analysts believe that the global economic recovery has increased the demand for oil, and the increased demand for energy in some emerging economies such as China and India has also aggravated the global energy shortage. All this may partly explain why gasoline prices in the United States continue to rise. However, other factors can not be ignored, such as the lack of confidence in oil industry investment caused by the fear of terrorism, the depreciation of the US dollar against other major currencies, and the huge profits made by the energy industry over a long period of time.
Monopoly management of oil refining industry
However, what is most noteworthy is the situation of American oil refining industry. After years of insufficient investment, the average production load of the refining industry has reached more than 90%. In the face of rising energy demand, the capacity of oil refining industry to expand production has been stretched. In recent 20 years, American states have promulgated more and more extremely strict environmental protection laws and regulations, which greatly restricted the development of oil refining industry. Because there is no guarantee of profit, the oil refining industry is unwilling to invest more money to expand production capacity even when the existing equipment is running at full capacity.
On the other hand, the scarcer energy is, the more profitable the refining industry is. According to the data of UBS Group AG, a world-renowned financial service company, in the last week of February, 2004, the refining profit of the refining industry was 6.74 dollars per barrel, while the average profit per barrel five years ago was only 4 dollars. In California, the oil refining industry has more profits. At the end of February this year, the profit was $65,438+$03,78 per barrel, almost twice the profit of $6.76 per barrel five years ago.
The lack of competition in the oil refining industry is the common sense of some liberals. After several merger waves, several large companies in the oil refining industry gradually controlled the main market. They know very well that scarcity is precious. The increase in output will inevitably lower prices and profits. According to an energy report by Washington-based liberal group "Public Citizen", at present, the five major oil refining companies control 5 1% of the domestic production in the United States, while the top 10 oil refining companies control 77% of the production. This is much higher than ten years ago, when the output controlled by the five major companies was 33%, and the output controlled by the largest company 10 was 54%. For ordinary people, monopoly can only be endured.
Of course, the oil refining industry also has its own difficulties. Even if they are willing to expand production, the investment is amazing. Because of the strict environmental protection policy, it takes more than 2 billion dollars to build an oil refinery in the United States. Even so, it may be opposed by the local people, and everyone seems to have such a mentality. Why did you choose to build an oil refinery near my home? As we all know, oil refineries destroy the surrounding landscape and increase the smell in the air.
Another phenomenon in the oil refining industry is that some small oil refineries have closed down. For example, Shell Oil Company plans to close a small oil refinery in Bakersfield, California on June 5438+ 10 this year, even though California is the most energy-intensive place in the United States. Shell explained that the underground crude oil reserves there could not guarantee production. However, Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon recently sent a letter to the Federal Trade Commission, questioning Shell's explanation. He asked whether the closure of the refinery "will further lead to anti-competitive problems in the west coast gasoline market, such as raising prices by limiting supply."
The chain reaction of soaring oil prices
In the United States, oil prices are a barometer of the operation of economic wheels. The rising price of gasoline and other energy sources will soon lead to a series of price increases from steel and fertilizer to various agricultural products. Recently, some analysts pointed out that the rise in energy prices has affected consumer confidence and affected the decline of the stock market. More seriously, it also restricts the further recovery of the manufacturing industry. At present, the aviation industry in the United States is the most affected. If oil prices continue to rise, several airlines may have to declare bankruptcy. In other words, if you are engaged in these related industries now, I am afraid you will face a double blow. On the one hand, household expenditure is rising, on the other hand, one's "rice bowl" may be lost.
John brown, CEO of British Petroleum Group, said in Washington on March 23rd that from now until 20 15, the oil industry must invest 2 trillion US dollars in exploration and production to meet the world demand for oil and gas. And this investment is equivalent to 2000 dollars a year. Brownie pointed out that in recent years, the average annual investment in the oil industry is only $654.38+060 billion. He believes that the best way to solve the energy problem in the world today is to develop crude oil resources outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The deep-sea areas of Russia, the Caribbean, West Africa and the Gulf of Mexico are expected to become important crude oil and natural gas producing areas. He also said that the cooperation of the local government is also crucial.