1, 20 17: deepen the structural reform of the supply side and do all the work well. Looking back on greeting the successfully convening of the 19th National Congress of the CPC with excellent achievements, in 20 16, we "adhered to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability, adhered to the new development concept, focused on supply-side structural reform, moderately expanded the total demand, properly responded to risk challenges, and maintained stable and healthy economic and social development". The meeting pointed out that 20 17 is an important year for implementing the 13 th Five-Year Plan and deepening the supply-side structural reform. The meeting emphasized that in 20 17, while adhering to the general tone of striving for progress while maintaining stability, we should adapt to leading the new normal of economic development, strive to improve the quality and efficiency of development, adhere to the policy thinking that macro policies should be stable, industrial policies should be accurate, micro policies should be flexible, reform policies should be realistic, and social policies should be supported, adhere to the main line of structural reform on the supply side, moderately expand aggregate demand, strengthen expected guidance, and deepen innovation drive. Do a good job in stabilizing growth, promoting reform, restructuring, benefiting people's livelihood and preventing risks in an all-round way to promote stable and healthy economic development and social harmony and stability, greeting the successfully convening of the 19th National Congress of the CPC with excellent achievements. The failure to mention specific GDP targets this year means that the government is no longer simply pursuing economic growth, but shifting from steady growth to reform and structural adjustment. All policies are based on "stability", stability is the main tone and stability is the overall situation. On the premise of stability, we should make progress in key areas and work hard on the premise of grasping the degree. At the same time of policy support, we should adhere to the supply-side reform, supplemented by moderate expansion of the demand side. According to 17, with the advancement of supply-side reform, the regulation of real estate, the prevention of financial risks, and the combination of supply and demand, there may be a stagflation-like pattern, and the economic growth rate is stable or slightly weak, but the inflation level represented by industrial products is rising. 2. Fiscal policy: active and effective, promoting the reform of fiscal and taxation system. The meeting pointed out that we should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. "Fiscal policies should be more active and effective, and budget arrangements should meet the needs of promoting supply-side structural reforms, reducing the burden of corporate taxes and fees, and ensuring people's livelihood." In terms of deleveraging, it is necessary to reduce the leverage ratio of enterprises as the top priority under the premise of controlling the total leverage ratio. It is necessary to support the marketization of enterprises and the legalization of debt-to-equity swaps, increase equity financing, strengthen the leverage constraints of enterprises' own debts, and reduce the leverage ratio of enterprises. Among them, "control the total leverage ratio", "macro-control the currency, and micro-credit policies should support the rational purchase of houses" and "reduce the leverage ratio of enterprises". From the perspective of social structure, residents have limited leverage, while enterprises are deleveraging. Therefore, on the whole, the government may increase the leverage slightly, and continue the statement of "increasing the fiscal deficit ratio by stages" in 20 16, which is estimated to be 206,544. At the same time, we believe that reducing corporate tax burden is conducive to increasing economic vitality, especially in the current situation of low return on capital in the whole society. However, the reform of personal taxes and fees is not mentioned here and needs to be promoted. In addition, the meeting also proposed to "steadily push forward the reform of fiscal, taxation and financial systems, implement the reform of the division of financial powers and expenditure responsibilities between the central and local governments, accelerate the formulation of the overall plan for the division of income between the central and local governments, and promptly put forward a plan to improve the local tax system." In February of 65438 and June of 65438, the Ministry of Finance also issued the Notice of the State Council on Implementing the Fixed Return of VAT from the Central Government to the Local Government, stating that "the fixed return will be implemented based on 20 15, and the areas linked to the increase or decrease of VAT will not be returned or deducted, and the return base will be approved by the Ministry of Finance". 3. Promoting the supply-side reform of agriculture, but it does not mean that the meeting on agricultural product inflation pointed out that since the beginning of this year, with the five major tasks of "three to one, one reduction and one supplement" as the starting point, the supply-side structural reform has achieved initial results, and the relationship between supply and demand in some industries and the concepts and behaviors of the government and enterprises have undergone positive changes. Next year, we will continue to deepen the supply-side structural reform. The meeting also proposed to further promote the structural reform of the agricultural supply side. When it comes to the supply-side reform of agriculture, the market thinks that the prices of agricultural products may also explode like coal and steel this year. We think this may have misinterpreted the original intention of agricultural supply-side reform. The supply side of agriculture is not simply and rudely eliminating agricultural production capacity, but rationalizing the relationship between price and supply and demand, including the reform of purchasing and storage system. This year, the reform of purchasing and storage systems such as corn was carried out, and farmers were subsidized instead of corn prices. Although the price of corn has increased this year, it is mainly caused by production reduction, not reform. In essence, the price of agricultural products still depends on the relationship between supply and demand. Next year, the government may continue to encourage farmers to reduce corn planting and increase potato and soybean planting. The crop structure has been adjusted. However, the improvement of breeding ability will increase the yield per mu of new seeds at present. For example, the yield per mu of American beans will be greatly increased this year. In addition, intensive rural land and mechanized planting from small farmers to large farmers will also improve planting efficiency. Therefore, agricultural supply-side reform is not the same as agricultural product inflation. At present, in agricultural products, except for oil and sugar, the fundamentals are relatively supportive of price increases, and other products do not see the basis for obvious price increases. 4. Monetary policy revisits the liquidity gate. The tight attitude shows that the keynote of the Central Economic Work Conference for next year's monetary policy is "stable and neutral". Although it is still "stable", its meaning may have changed to some extent. This time, it is mentioned that "monetary policy should remain stable and neutral, adapt to the new changes in the mode of money supply, adjust the monetary gate, strive to smooth the transmission channels and mechanisms of monetary policy, and maintain the basic stability of liquidity." Historically, when monetary policy refers to "opening the floodgates" or "opening the floodgates of liquidity", it means that monetary policy is in a tightening tone. For example, from the second half of 20 10 to the first half of 20 16, the whole year of 20 13 and the first half of 20 14, the monetary policy implementation report all mentioned "opening the floodgates". Judging from the current economic environment, PPI has been under the pressure of rapid rise recently, which has driven CPI to rise slowly, while the global inflation level and inflation expectations are also rising. Coupled with the overheating of real estate this year, monetary policy has actually been quietly tightened to combat inflation risks during the year, including the recent tight liquidity, which has pushed the overall interest rate of the market up sharply. However, the central bank has not adjusted the benchmark interest rate. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates next year, and if the number of interest rate hikes reaches 2-3 times or more, then the domestic central bank may also consider raising the benchmark interest rate moderately in the case of a stronger US dollar and increased pressure on the RMB exchange rate. But only if the economy remains relatively stable. But at present, the domestic economic fundamentals are more similar to the "stagflation" pattern. The rising prices of industrial products in the upper and middle reaches bring inflationary pressure, but in the case of real estate regulation and the slowdown of residents' leverage, the demand for downstream terminals may gradually slow down. This may be unfavorable to downstream enterprises. Therefore, it is more difficult for the monetary authorities to balance the tightness of monetary policy in the case of "stagflation", and they may be in a state of waiting and seeing. As far as liquidity is concerned, the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned "adapting to the new changes in the way of money supply". If the outflow of foreign exchange has been hedged through reverse repurchase and MLF, there may be problems such as insufficient institutional pledged bonds and shrinking LCR indicators, which will weaken the willingness to borrow funds. Even if the central bank does not raise the benchmark interest rate, the tight liquidity of the money market may be in a tight balance. In our market survey, investors also generally believe that the average repo rate in the next seven days is in the range of 2.5%-3.0%, which is higher than the range of 2.0%-2.5% this year. The recent sharp adjustment of the bond market largely reflects the tightening of monetary policy, and the interest rate level will not increase significantly next year, and may even decline to a certain extent. 5. The Central Economic Work Conference on the Regulation and Control of Real Estate mentioned that the orientation of "houses are for living, not for speculation" should be adhered to, and means such as finance, land, taxation, investment and legislation should be comprehensively used to speed up the research and establishment of basic systems and long-term mechanisms that are in line with national conditions and adapt to market rules, so as to curb the real estate bubble and prevent ups and downs. In order to macro-control the currency, micro-credit policy should support reasonable self-occupied housing purchase and strictly limit the flow of credit to investment speculative housing purchase. This means that the regulation of the real estate market will be maintained next year, speculative demand will be curbed by restricting purchases and loans, and rigid self-occupation demand will be supported. At the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 20 15, the keynote of real estate at that time was still to dissolve the real estate inventory, and mentioned "canceling outdated restrictive measures". However, the relaxation of 20 16 real estate has led to a rapid rise in real estate, which has led to the current transformation into regulation, and the market has risen and fallen rapidly. It is expected that real estate sales will slow down obviously next year, and the increment of mortgage will also drop accordingly, which will also drive down real estate investment to a certain extent. This is the risk point of economic downturn next year. 6. Make up your mind to deal with some risk points and focus on preventing and controlling asset bubbles. At the meeting, it was mentioned that it is necessary to put the prevention and control of financial risks in a more important position, make up our minds to deal with a number of risk points, focus on preventing and controlling asset bubbles, and improve and enhance the supervision ability to ensure that systematic financial risks do not occur. The meeting did not clearly point out what the financial risk points were. But pointed out that there is a "batch". We believe that these risk points may include financial leverage risk, P2P, Internet financial risk, illegal real estate financing such as recent insurance placards, real estate down payment and land auction financing, and excessive speculation in some commodity futures. Recently, funds have been tightened, and financial leverage and bond leverage have been removed and standardized. It is expected that the new rules of bank financing will also restrict the rapid development of bank financing business next year. It is expected that the overall financial leverage will slow down next year, which will lead to a slowdown in currency circulation and a slowdown in currency growth, which will also restrict the financial asset bubble to some extent. 200 1-20 16 keynote of fiscal and monetary policy 200 1: adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, continue to issue long-term construction bonds, maintain necessary investment incentives ... continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, further increase financial support for economic development ... strengthen credit management, reduce the proportion of non-performing loans, and prevent and resolve financial risks. 2002: Adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand and continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. We will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and issue construction bonds of a certain scale next year. We should further make good use of national debt. Adjust and optimize the direction and structure of the use of treasury bonds, and strive to improve the efficiency of use. Concentrate on major events and ensure the investment and construction of major projects. We will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy. In 2003, we will continue to adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand and implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. In 2004, we will implement a prudent fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy (for the first time) and continue to control the excessive growth of fixed assets investment. 2005: Persist in implementing prudent fiscal and monetary policies 2006: Continue to implement prudent fiscal and monetary policies and increase support for key areas and weak links; Comprehensively use various monetary policy tools, strengthen liquidity management, reasonably control credit supply, and optimize credit structure. Attention should be paid to strengthening the reasonable guidance and effective regulation of the real estate market. It is necessary to strengthen the coordination of fiscal policy, monetary policy, industrial policy, land policy and social development policy. In 2007, we implemented a prudent fiscal policy and a tight monetary policy (monetary policy changed from tight to tight), improved and implemented macro-control policies, and maintained a good momentum of steady and rapid economic development. It is necessary to take preventing rapid economic growth from turning into overheating and preventing structural price increases from turning into obvious inflation as the primary task of macro-control at present, and do a good job in macro-control according to the keynote of controlling the total amount, stabilizing prices, adjusting the structure and promoting balance. We will implement a prudent fiscal policy and a tight monetary policy next year. Give further play to the important role of monetary policy in macro-control, strictly control the total amount and pace of money and credit, better adjust the total social demand and improve the balance of payments, and maintain financial stability and security. Strictly control newly started projects, prevent investment from rebounding, and maintain economic growth at a reasonable level. Strong measures should be taken to curb the excessive rise of the overall price level. 2008: Strengthen and improve macro-control, implement proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy (monetary policy turns to moderately loose). Strengthen and improve macro-control and implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. We will promote the reasonable growth of the total supply of money and credit, adhere to differential treatment, maintain pressure, guide and improve market expectations, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and further improve the balance of payments situation. Maintain the stable and healthy development of the capital market and the real estate market. 2009: Continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and grasp the strength, pace and focus of policy implementation. It is necessary to highlight the key points of fiscal policy implementation. It is necessary to closely follow the changes in the domestic and international economic situation and grasp the growth rate of money and credit. Actively expand direct financing to guide and standardize the healthy development of the capital market. 20 10: Continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and implement a prudent monetary policy (monetary policy turns to be prudent). Continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and play its role in stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, adjusting distribution and promoting harmony. Maintain steady growth of fiscal revenue, optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, and make up your mind to reduce general expenditure and practice economy; Strengthen local government debt management, and resolutely prevent blindly spreading stalls and projects at the beginning of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. It is necessary to implement a prudent monetary policy, make good use of the general gate of liquidity in accordance with the requirements of overall stability, moderate adjustment and structural optimization, and invest credit funds in the real economy, especially in the "three rural" and small and medium-sized enterprises, so as to better serve the steady and rapid development of the economy; Further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. 20 1 1: We should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Fiscal policy should continue to improve the structural tax reduction policy, increase investment in people's livelihood, actively promote economic restructuring, strictly manage fiscal revenue and expenditure, and strengthen local government debt management. According to the economic operation, the monetary policy will be pre-adjusted and fine-tuned, and various monetary policy tools will be comprehensively used to maintain a reasonable increase in the total amount of money and credit, optimize the credit structure, give full play to the positive role of the capital market, and effectively prevent and timely resolve potential financial risks. We must adhere to the real estate regulation and control policies, promote the reasonable return of housing prices, speed up the construction of ordinary commodity housing, expand effective supply, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market. 20 12: "We should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and give full play to the role of countercyclical adjustment and structural adjustment." To implement a proactive fiscal policy, we should improve the structural tax reduction policy in combination with tax reform. Governments at all levels should practise economy, strictly control general expenditures, and put money to the cutting edge. To implement a prudent monetary policy, we should pay attention to grasping the degree and enhance the flexibility of operation. It is necessary to appropriately expand the total scale of social financing, maintain a moderate increase in loans, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate, and effectively reduce the financing cost of the development of the real economy. We must continue to adhere to the real estate market regulation policy. We should attach great importance to the hidden risks in the financial sector and resolutely hold the bottom line that systematic and regional financial risks will not occur. 20 13: We should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. It is necessary to further adjust the structure of fiscal expenditure, practice economy, improve the efficiency of capital use, improve the structural tax reduction policy, and expand the pilot industry of camp reform. It is necessary to maintain a reasonable growth in the scale of monetary credit and social financing, improve and optimize the financing structure and credit structure, increase the proportion of direct financing, promote the marketization of interest rates and the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and enhance the efficiency of financial operation and the ability to serve the real economy. 20 14: We will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. A proactive fiscal policy should be dynamic, and monetary policy should pay more attention to tightness and moderation. 20 15: "Proactive fiscal policy should be intensified" and "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate". The proactive fiscal policy should be intensified, the tax reduction policy should be implemented, and the fiscal deficit ratio should be improved in stages. While appropriately increasing the necessary fiscal expenditure and government investment, it is mainly used to make up for the fiscal reduction brought about by tax reduction and ensure the government's expenditure responsibility. A prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, create a suitable monetary and financial environment for structural reform, reduce financing costs, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and moderate growth of total social financing, expand the proportion of direct financing, optimize the credit structure and improve the exchange rate formation mechanism. 20 16: We should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The fiscal policy should be more active and effective, and the budget arrangement should meet the needs of promoting supply-side structural reform, reducing the tax burden of enterprises and ensuring people's livelihood. Monetary policy should remain stable and neutral, adapt to the new changes in the mode of money supply, adjust the monetary gate, try to dredge the transmission channels and mechanisms of monetary policy, and maintain the basic stability of liquidity. While enhancing exchange rate flexibility, we should keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level. It is necessary to put the prevention and control of financial risks in a more important position, make up our minds to control a number of risk points, focus on preventing and controlling asset bubbles, improve and enhance the supervision ability, and ensure that systematic financial risks do not occur.