The benefits of low oil prices to consumers are temporary, but the harm is long-term.

The price of refined oil has finally entered the "5 yuan era". The last time the international oil price fell below $3 was in 216. The shale gas developed vigorously in the United States made great substantial progress. In order to crack down on American shale gas, Saudi Arabia immediately increased its production capacity and controlled the oil price at around $6, which was considered as the cost price of shale gas development.

In p>22, after a lapse of four years, the global economic growth slowed down. This time, Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two major oil producers, hoped to reach an agreement to cut production in order to maintain oil prices. Obviously, in the face of the menacing depressed economy, Russia rejected this proposal, so Saudi Arabia once again used oil weapons and set off an oil price war on a global scale.

normally, the plunge in oil makes us enjoy refined oil at a lower price, which is a sight that all ordinary people are happy to see. However, behind the oil crash, it has caused indelible negative effects on you, me and the automobile industry. What are the effects?

Under the economic crisis, oil has remained at a low level all the year round

If you are worried that the oil slump is just a flash in the pan, you can rest assured that Saudi Arabia and Russia are engaged in a protracted price war, so after the collapse of negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two countries have successively increased their production. Oil supply and demand began to shift from global balance to seizing market share.

In this regard, Saudi Arabia provides low-cost and high-quality crude oil to countries in Europe and Asia that use Russian crude oil at a price of $25/barrel. Not to be outdone, Russia recently stated that it can bear the oil price of $25 to $3 in 6 to 1 years, and at the same time it can bear the limit price of $15/barrel.

at the same time, due to the economic slowdown, Saudi Arabia and Russia are in crisis. The economies of OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia are stagnating, and economic and social contradictions are increasing, while Russia's economy is "underdeveloped". Russian Finance Minister Siluanov said that Russia's budget will be in deficit this year. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the economic slowdown has seriously affected economic sectors such as air transport, tourism and small enterprises, and the purchase of bulk commodities including automobiles is decreasing.

both countries hope to gain more income and higher political status by seizing the oil share. Even if it is not based on the struggle between Saudi Arabia and Russia, according to the trend of oil prices during the economic downturn in previous years, oil will eventually remain low in a short time.

under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, people are more worried about the world economy entering a recession cycle caused by the epidemic. Once the world economy enters a recession, the demand for crude oil will first drop sharply, which will also lead to a wave of continuous decline in oil prices. Compared with the economic crisis in 28, the global oil price has remained at a low level for more than one year, nearly two years, which means that this short period of time will at least exceed one year.

such a low oil price is not good for consumers, and it does more harm than good for the automobile industry. What's the matter?

Strike a blow to the new energy automobile industry

The gradual lowering of oil prices will make people stop paying too much attention to fuel economy when buying new cars. Once this happens, the sales of SUV and other vehicles with poor economy will be improved. According to data from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI), in 218, when crude oil prices fell, the average fuel economy of new cars in the United States dropped by .2 mpg to 25 mpg.

in terms of specific product sales, the sales of new cars decreased by 5%, but the sales of light trucks and SUVs increased by 5.8% and 2.2% respectively. Overall, since UMTRI began to study the average fuel economy in 27, this figure has increased by 4.9 mpg.

in the trend of lower oil prices, we should not only pay attention to people's indifference to economy, but also pay attention to the premise that the increase in SUV sales is a 5% decline in new car sales, which means that the oil price is lower, the dependence of the global economic engine on oil is weakened, the economy slows down, the consumer desire is suppressed, and it is more difficult to make money.

from the perspective of consumer demand, oil prices rise, the advantages of new energy vehicles increase, oil prices fall, and the advantages of new energy vehicles no longer exist, which also leads to a decline in people's willingness to buy new energy vehicles. The positioning between new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles has collapsed for a moment in the face of expenditure costs.

Take the current 92# gasoline 5.5 yuan /L as an example. If you fill a box of 4L Mazda 3 Angkor Sela, you can run 5 kilometers, and the total cost is 2 yuan. However, a pure electric vehicle that travels 5 kilometers, the 8-kilowatt version, and the fast charging price is generally around 1.3 yuan, will be 1 yuan each time. The expenditure gap between the two is narrowing, and the advantages of new energy vehicles are weakened due to the advantages brought by the price of traditional fuel vehicles.

5.5 yuan is actually the lowest price for two barrels of refined oil. The national control over the price of refined oil is that when the international oil price fluctuates between $3 and $13, the oil price will be adjusted with the adjustment of the international oil price. Once it is lower than $3, the finished oil price will not be adjusted. In this regard, in the face of low international oil prices and the supply of two barrels of refined oil products, many private gas stations will tend to buy smuggled crude oil overseas, thus providing cheaper gasoline and reducing the cost of consumers.

In fact, the plunge in oil directly reversed the logic of promoting new energy vehicles. Although China mainly hopes to reduce its dependence on oil and increase the utilization of coal (because China is a country rich in coal and poor in oil), domestic coal chemical enterprises have basically suffered a total loss in the face of low-cost oil, and the development of the whole industry has also fallen into a dilemma. The energy structure reform has never been able to establish a strong logic.

for consumers, the lower oil price will not choose new energy vehicles, but for the country, it means that the country is at a loss at this time point in 22.

China municipal government had hoped to implement carbon dioxide emission requirements for traditional fuel vehicles in 22, and try to increase the sales ratio of new energy vehicles and pure electric vehicles. Prior to this, the government continued to provide subsidies to new energy vehicles to help them gain price advantages.

just as the government gradually abolished subsidies for new energy vehicles, international crude oil plummeted, and new energy vehicles directly lost their original advantages in price and use cost. That is to say, low oil prices are testing whether the government will continue to subsidize new energy vehicles and maintain the smooth progress of the new energy plan, otherwise all previous efforts will be wasted.

In fact, the current economic situation and epidemic situation in China have dealt a severe blow to China's consumption desire, and people's consumption concept tends to be conservative. The government encourages mass consumption of automobiles, and neither gasoline vehicles nor new energy vehicles will be restricted. That is to say, low oil prices have hindered China's plan to promote new energy vehicles.

For the government, to continue subsidizing new energy vehicles is to increase the financial pressure. On the other hand, with the oil plummeting, it will be difficult for China to really enjoy the dividend of international low oil prices in a short time. In 214, China started the strategic oil reserve plan, and established four national oil reserve bases in Zhoushan, Zhenhai, Dalian and Huangdao, respectively, to ensure that the strategic oil reserve recommended by the International Energy Agency (IEA) is not less than 9 days' consumption.

China, which is mainly dependent on oil imports, has witnessed a continuous increase in oil imports since 25, and reached a new high in 219. In contrast, the United States has reduced its dependence on oil due to its vigorous development of shale gas, so a question arises: What should China do with the high-priced strategic oil reserves in the face of low oil prices?

that is to say, the low price of refined oil that we are enjoying now is based on the large amount of oil we bought in the past when the oil price was high. With the sharp drop in oil price, from the perspective of accounting treatment, these high-priced oils are facing huge inventory depreciation losses, and the lethality caused by such asset impairment may far exceed expectations.

according to The Paper's "84 great ships from China went to the Gulf to fish for crude oil?" There can be snapping up, but this is a fake news report. Although China has the motivation to snap up low-priced oil, the commercial inventory is at a high level, and the incremental space is limited. At present, the method adopted is to ask VLCC (a large tanker) to slow down and become a "floating warehouse" for oil storage in China.

Although the oil price is low, there is no more place to store it. It will take some time for China to enjoy the benefits of low oil price. However, it is more noteworthy that the lower oil price means that the kinetic energy of the economic engine is insufficient, and all countries will reduce their oil imports. Therefore, low oil prices often indicate economic downturn, and consumers have to suffer more from making money besides enjoying low oil prices.

Strike against alternative energy industry

Too low oil price is unhealthy. Too low oil price will encourage excessive oil consumption, and at the same time, it will hit domestic oil production enterprises. Saudi oil products are of high quality and low procurement cost. If they flood into China without price control, China's local oil companies will face competitive pressure and even close down. Shengli Oilfield, a subsidiary of Sinopec, once closed four oil fields to reduce the losses caused by low oil prices.

this is a common tactic of global oil giants.

In p>214, the international oil price plummeted, which was only aimed at the shale oil revolution in the United States to some extent. The substantial progress of shale oil has hit the interests of traditional oil-producing countries. To this end, OPEC, represented by Saudi Arabia, has burned its bridges and insisted on not reducing production when the oil price plummeted, becoming the second round pusher of the oil price collapse, making the international oil price quickly fall below the cost line of US$ 6 shale oil in early 215. The shale oil producing areas in the United States began to fall into losses. As the oil price continued to fall, many shale oil companies would be eliminated. When the international oil price fell below $3, the number of shale oil drilling platforms started in the United States decreased sharply. According to the data, the number of crude oil drilling platforms started in the United States decreased by 64% compared with a year ago.

This is only one aspect. On the other hand, if the crude oil price keeps low for a long time, it will have a big impact on China's economy, because the development of new and alternative energy sources in China will suffer a heavy setback, and the energy structure transformation will be even more distant.

according to China's energy consumption plan, the proportion of non-fossil energy (hydropower, wind power, nuclear power, photovoltaic power generation and biomass energy, etc.) in primary energy consumption will increase to 15% in 22, and will reach about 2% in 23. In 218, China's consumption of non-fossil energy accounted for 14.3%. When all this is promoted step by step, the oil slump obviously poses a great challenge.

with the long-term low oil price, many alternative energy industries may gradually withdraw due to the continuous losses. With the lithium battery and hydrogen energy strategy that China is pushing hard at present, and even Japanese clean energy hybrid vehicles, a large number of enterprises may face losses and eventually go bankrupt.

If China's alternative energy enterprises close down and international oil prices return to a high level, China's energy consumption will be passive again. As a country with a dependence on imported crude oil of over 7% in the world, China's dependence on oil is amazing even if its economic growth rate drops. This oil slump is precisely because China has lost the layout of alternative energy sources, and the road to energy reform in China will be more difficult in the future.

companies that develop new technologies can't make money. Even if this technology is promising, just one "high current cost" may be forced to stop and become unsustainable.

In the 197s, including the 199s in the United States, when new energy vehicles were being vigorously promoted, Toyota, Honda and General Motors carried out a large number of projects of solar vehicles, pure electric vehicles and even hydrogen fuel vehicles in the United States and Australia. Toyota introduced Prius in 1996 and General Motors introduced Volanda in 28. The reason why these new energy technologies could not be widely popularized was precisely because once oil prices were kept low, these new energy technologies had to be adopted.

If the price of oil remains high, battery technology and motor technology, including new energy vehicles, will achieve extremely rapid development. However, oil companies clearly know that once alternative energy is mature, oil will lose its use value and its pricing power will no longer be in their own hands.

can China's new energy industry survive this round of low oil price shocks?

under the background of the current oil price of $3, it is difficult to resist the cold winter only by relying on the new energy industry itself. The government must increase its support for new energy, which is related to the life and death of the new energy industry and the layout of China's energy reform in the future. If China's new energy industry is wiped out under the impact of this round of low oil prices, it means that China's energy consumption will still be largely controlled by others in the next few decades.

At present, many new energy industries in China have made great progress and have been designated as national strategies by the government. Under the impact of low oil prices, this strategy has a deeper significance. The shale oil industry in the United States is constantly upgrading its technology and increasing its defense capabilities to survive. Therefore, after 25, the dependence of the United States on overseas oil has been decreasing. For this oil price crash, Americans are happy, and Trump even tweeted that "the reduction in oil prices is beneficial to consumers."

The double test of policy and automobile enterprises

22 is the first year of the automobile examination. After 22, China's requirements for automobile emissions are constantly strict, and in 225, it will become the country with the most stringent emission requirements in the world, and Europe has also put forward extremely harsh emission restrictions for automobile enterprises, which requires automobile enterprises to improve the research and development of new energy vehicles and introduce more new energy vehicles.

however, can this policy really be implemented in 22?

according to Forbes,? In 22, the sales of cars and SUVs in Western Europe will drop by 19% due to the novel coronavirus epidemic, while Jaguar Land Rover, the parent company of Mercedes, and Renault, the French Volkswagen manufacturer, are the most vulnerable and face the greatest risks due to their financial situation.

Ceng Qinghong, Party Secretary and Chairman of Guangzhou Automobile Group, said that due to the outbreak of new pneumonia, the company will reduce the expected target of automobile sales this year from 8% to about 3%.

Ye Shengji, deputy secretary-general of China Automobile Industry Association, said on 18th that the epidemic will have a great impact on the operation of the automobile industry in the first quarter. If the epidemic situation is effectively controlled at the end of March, it is estimated that the production and sales volume will drop by about 45% in the first quarter and 25% in the first half of the year.

with the economic slowdown and the decrease of consumption desire, the survival pressure of automobiles is unprecedented. After the oil crash, U.S. stocks took the lead in expressing their position. In just 1 days, they were blown four times, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and began to release water to ensure liquidity. However, the global stock market is still pessimistic about the future, especially in the automobile industry.

Tesla's share price, which is 9 dollars from the top, has fallen by half so far. SAIC, the domestic automobile leader, has returned to the level in 216, while Geely Group has dropped by two-thirds from 28 yuan in 217, and now it is only 1 yuan. The global market has been pessimistic about the future of the automobile industry.

On the one hand, there is a problem in the revenue of the automobile industry, and the turnover and profit are constantly lowered. On the other hand, consumers are tightening their money bags. As oil is one of the most important raw materials, the low price of oil will drive down the cost of many products. It is expected that commodity prices will be cheaper in the future, and both producers and consumers will choose to postpone production or consumption. The economy that needs to stimulate consumption will be even more depressed, and China's economy will begin to experience "imported deflation". <