"In the past, I would raise interest rates to 4.75%-5%," Brad said after a speech in Kentucky on Thursday. "According to today's analysis, I would say that 5%-5.25% is the peak of the lowest interest rate."
"So far, the change of monetary policy stance (tightening policy) seems to have only a limited impact on the observed inflation. However, market pricing indicates that deflation is expected to occur in 2023, "Brad said, adding that the interest rate hike so far has hardly affected financial markets.
"I will leave the question of how much to raise interest rates at the interest rate meeting to the chairman of the Federal Reserve." Regarding the pace of the Fed's interest rate hike, Brad said, "If there is more interest rate hike now (65438+February), then the interest rate hike in the first quarter of 2023 will be even smaller. Or vice versa, from Dallas to the auditorium, there is not much difference between the two practices at the macroeconomic level. "
On the same day, Minneapolis Fed President NeelKashkari said that it is difficult to predict the level of interest rate hike required by the Fed for the time being, but it should not stop raising interest rates until inflation has clearly peaked.
"I need to make sure that inflation has at least stopped rising, so that it will not fall further behind the curve, and then I will advocate stopping the process of raising interest rates in the future," Kashkali said in a live webcast of the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce. "We haven't reached this level yet."
The latest data shows that the price increase in the United States slowed down in June 5438+ 10. "This provides some evidence that inflation is at least stable, but we can't over-trust the data for one month." Kashkali said.
At present, the data of interest rate futures show that the probability that the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in 65438+February is 78.2%; It is estimated that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in June 5438+February is 2 1.8%.