The purchase restriction measures are mainly concentrated in several first-tier cities, as well as areas with good economic conditions and active real estate speculation in second-tier cities, which are aimed at investment demand. Therefore, the geographical composition of real estate developers' business activities is undoubtedly the key factor to be considered when analyzing the influence of the above-mentioned purchase restriction policy on the real estate components of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index.
At present, it is difficult to accurately evaluate the impact of the purchase restriction policy on the above-mentioned urban housing demand, and the daily online signing data published by local real estate departments also have different reactions. For example, Beijing basically maintained the level before the introduction of the purchase restriction policy (which is related to the snap-up before the expiration of the deed tax preferential policy), while the transaction volume on the first day of the implementation of the Guangzhou policy decreased by about 40% compared with the previous period. If the sales from the above cities decrease by 20%, the operating income of major real estate developers will decrease by about 10%, and the net profit will decrease even more.
However, the purchase restriction policy to curb demand can only be a short-term behavior after all, and it is expected that it is more likely to be cancelled before the end of the current government term (20 12). Therefore, the decline in the performance of the above-mentioned real estate companies can only be a short-term phenomenon, which is likely to be fully compensated in the market outbreak after the cancellation of the policy. What investors should really pay attention to is the emerging financial crisis of real estate listed companies. The following table lists some financial data of major real estate developers' 2009 annual reports and recent statements.
Some financial data of 2009 annual report and latest report of major real estate developers.
The information in the table shows that, except for the financial situation of China Merchants Property, the other three listed real estate enterprises are facing financial difficulties to varying degrees. Among them, the problem of Poly Real Estate is the most serious. Its net cash outflow from operating activities in recent 12 months is as high as 30 billion yuan, which is 2.2 times of its current monetary fund balance. Starting from 20 10, the quick ratio dropped sharply from 0.74 to 0.54, and the asset-liability ratio rose from 70% to 79%. As leverage cannot be increased indefinitely, if Poly Real Estate's business activities continue to maintain the current level, its current financial situation can only be maintained for one year at most. The financial situation of Vanke A and Gemdale is also not optimistic.
It can be seen that the most important impact of the above-mentioned purchase restriction policy should be the decline in the asset turnover rate of real estate listed companies, which will further aggravate their cash flow crisis. Since most of the funds of real estate developers come from bank loans except equity financing, most of the costs of the financial collapse of the former will be borne by the latter; At the same time, a large part of local government's income comes from land transfer fees. If real estate developers are short of funds, land transfer fees will be seriously affected. In addition, the failure of real estate regulation before led to the decline of government credibility. In order to achieve the goal of curbing housing prices during the term of office, it is unlikely to cancel the above-mentioned purchase restriction policy in the short term.
Therefore, in the face of the above difficulties, all the analysis points to the same conclusion: the financial difficulties of real estate developers will eventually force the regulatory authorities to let go of the refinancing of real estate listed companies, and investors in the securities market will pay for it. With the share price of a considerable number of companies falling below the price of their issuance plan (for example, the issuance plan of Poly Real Estate is not less than 17.92 yuan, and the current share price is about 15 yuan), the speculative rise of the real estate sector at present is not only driven by market funds, but also supported by the issuance conditions. In 2007, Vanke's tens of billions of additional financing will probably reappear in the market at 20 1 1, and we will wait and see.
Related reading
Real estate industry: market differentiation and strong rigid demand (20 10- 12-27)
Real estate industry: Christmas gift from the central bank (20 10- 12-27)
20 10 real estate industry daily: help to straighten out the investment logic (20 10- 12-27)
Comment on the impact of interest rate hike on the real estate market: maintain the staged opportunities in the first half of the year and judge the trend opportunities in the second half (20 10- 12-27)
Real estate industry: 65438 (2010-12-27) comments on the impact of the central bank's interest rate hike on February 25th.
Analysis of the influence of policy on real estate industry
Core Tip: The state's regulation of the real estate market mainly points to controlling speculative purchases and increasing supply, which is obviously unfavorable to the current real estate sector, so real estate stocks are under pressure.
The state's regulation of the real estate market mainly points to controlling speculative purchases and increasing supply, which is obviously unfavorable to the current real estate sector, so real estate stocks are under pressure.
1. Speculation prevails in the real estate market.
Although the demand for real estate is increasing rapidly in the process of urbanization, the problem of overheated speculation is also worthy of attention.
1, high housing prices hinder urbanization.
There is no doubt that the demand for real estate is increasing rapidly in the process of urbanization. However, the current high housing prices limit the release of real housing demand (for example, the ratio of housing price to income in Shanghai is five times that in Tokyo).
The housing price problem not only hinders the demand of white-collar workers to buy houses, but also undoubtedly hinders a large number of farmers from entering cities and towns in the future.
2. Speculation prevails in the real estate market.
The vacancy rate of first-line real estate is high (most data think it is 50%), and the rental-sales ratio is twice the internationally recognized average standard. Facts have proved that most of the buyers who hold multiple suites at present are not out of self-occupation or long-term investment needs, but hope to obtain corresponding benefits through short-term appreciation of house prices.
Local governments and real estate developers speculate on land and real estate, which is obviously not conducive to the long-term sustainable development of urbanization, and the problem is getting more and more serious. The financialization of real estate does not meet the long-term urbanization demand put forward by management.
Second, the policy trend analysis
Before the Dubai incident (Central Economic Work Conference), the pulling effect of real estate on the economy (accounting for 25%) was the main reason that hindered the regulation of real estate. Even if the problem of high housing prices and speculation is serious, the central government's regulation of real estate is vacillating, and local governments are the beneficiaries of high housing prices, so they naturally actively support the real estate market. The main reason why the price of real estate cannot be suppressed is that real estate is the key driving force to promote economic development.
The Dubai incident shows that a single real estate pulling model is extremely risky (before the bursting of Dubai's real estate bubble, its house price was lower than that of our first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen). At present, the prevalence of real estate speculation in China has begun to occupy the space of other industries (the real estate mentioned by the Bureau of Statistics has occupied other consumption areas), which is very similar to Dubai.
Therefore, the bursting of Dubai's bubble, when swaying in the middle, can be said to be "the last straw to crush the camel."
From the perspective of policy attitude, the following points deserve our attention:
1, the tone of the central government on the real estate issue has changed greatly after the economic work conference (after the Dubai incident).
2. In a short period of time, the policy of tightening the second home loan and land transfer fee was introduced continuously, which greatly exceeded expectations.
3. The investigation of land hoarding has also been accelerated, and the critical point of major changes in the land system mentioned by the Minister of Land and Resources is of far-reaching significance.
4. After the promulgation of these policies, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also convened a meeting of 600 deputy mayors from all provinces (only 200 people attended). Its purpose is to implement and strictly implement the central real estate market policy.
We believe that the trend of real estate policy may mainly solve the problem from two angles: curbing speculation and increasing supply:
The purpose of restraining the speculative bubble is to prevent the trend of real estate speculation from deteriorating, stabilize housing prices, pave the way for the sustainable development of urbanization, and increase supply is to increase construction and promote economic recovery.
1, increase supply: curb land hoarding and speculation, increase the construction volume (recently it is rumored to promote the construction of low-rent housing through performance appraisal), speed up the circulation of homestead, and increase new land entering the market. This will not only help to stabilize prices, but also help to increase the amount of construction to stabilize economic development.
2. The second home loan may be more severe, and the property tax may be introduced. The main purpose is to prevent speculation. At the same time, the property tax objectively subsidizes the loss of local government land transfer fees and reduces the interest resistance.
Third, the expected analysis of the real estate industry
Before these policies were introduced, the market was uncertain and worried. Stocks in real estate, banking, steel and other industries are weak, and even decline in stages, generally downward. This is because the central policy tends to suppress real estate prices (everyone is actually guessing the extent), and the improvement of the down payment of land transfer fees and the strict implementation of policies are also extremely unfavorable to real estate listed companies.
Pay close attention to the new trend of 20 1 1 real estate policy.
First, closely study policy trends and guard against related traps. One of the author's fellow villagers bought a house at the beginning of the year and paid a down payment according to the policy of controlling the top 20%. As a result, because of later policy changes, the house was not bought and the down payment already paid was confiscated.
Second, which do you prefer, the long-term uncertain prospects and the current practical problems, far away from the center of the investment storm, such as the high-heat areas in Beishangguang and Hainan?
Third, the three main points of buying a house by loan: First, the down payment ability; Second, the stability of the loan policy; Third, a loan repayment reserve of at least three years; Do these three things, and you can buy a house with a loan.
Fourth, long-term planning is very risky. Special attention should be paid to long-term planning, so should developers take land.
Fifth, houses with unclear and unsound property rights should be avoided as much as possible.
6. Investing in commercial business apartments. Many so-called property hotels or small-sized apartments are sold by rent. In fact, there is a problem that the responsible person is unclear after the delivery of the house. At present, China's relevant laws and regulations actually have a big gray area in this respect, and many rights and interests of customers cannot be guaranteed after purchase.
Seventh, we should seriously study the terms of the pre-sale contract.
Eighth, the acceptance and quality audit of the fully renovated house must be detailed.
Ninth, treat school districts with caution. At present, many consumers are most concerned about education when buying a house. The so-called school district housing facilities must be fully and solidly investigated in advance. In this regard, don't believe the charming confession of advertisements, but go to the education authorities to know the truth.
Tenth, try to avoid buying commercial housing around the "land king", because the land king is often a hyped value, which does not mean that the lot must be the best or has the most appreciation potential.
Unscramble the new trend of 20 1 1 real estate regulation and control policy.
It is said that the concept of housing is dominated by many army and air forces. I don't want to sing empty words here, and I don't want to sing too much. I just observe some recent changes in the policy level and speculate on the actions and intentions of real estate regulation through some external public news. You're right, please. If you are wrong, just listen.
First, the central government's attitude towards real estate regulation. I noticed that some time ago, there were two pieces of news worthy of attention. One is that some people in Macao say that "house prices can't be suppressed", but the official media generally don't report it. On the contrary, some websites spread the news. This can be interpreted as, as a policy maker and executor since 2003, real estate has been in today's situation, and he wants to shirk his responsibility and draw a clear line with the regulation since 20 10, that is, in case the real estate bubble is punctured. Second, President Hu clearly put forward that "real estate regulation should be strengthened", which is very important, indicating that the top decision-making level of the central government has made the worst plan for the bubble to burst, and the opinions of the top management are unified (except for some people). Later, the People's Daily's comments on property tax and the accelerated withdrawal of central enterprises from the real estate industry can all be regarded as a response to Hu Ge.
Second, the problem of vacant properties should have been solved. One of the important contents of the previous census was asking about real estate. I guess everyone will ask you whether this house is rented or bought, how many people live at home, and whether there are other properties. The census is a cover, and the most important purpose is to check the property. There are many similar situations, such as closing websites with inappropriate comments in the name of online pornography and cracking down on pornography. As for whether the house is empty or not, everyone knows it's no use wasting your breath. The life of the house itself is at most 50 years, and now these guys are working on tofu dregs, 30 years may really be the deadline.
Third, regarding the purchase restriction policy and the loan restriction policy. In essence, it is to improve the quality of bank assets. Read the following discussion.
The purchase restriction just can't buy more. For real estate speculators, a set of two sets of quotas is simply not enough. If others can't buy it, you can't sell it. In fact, this policy is very useful for small retail investors who speculate in real estate. Now it's stuck. The problem is that people who want to take over real estate speculation can't take over, and rigid demand can't take over. Everyone can't continue to play the bank. Whoever owns the house will provide it honestly.
However, for those who are very resourceful, this purchase restriction order is flawed. Some people say they can borrow ID cards or something. At this time, the loan restriction policy worked. Buy a house in cash without a loan, which is exactly what you want. After the house fell down several times, the bank kept recovering cash, and the proportion of mortgage loans was declining. Look at the recent rise in the volume and price of the second-hand housing market in some hot spots, and you will know why you can continue to trade in full swing after stopping lending. This is because public opinion is creating an atmosphere in which house prices are bound to rise, luring a considerable number of rich people to buy houses in cash and letting banks withdraw from the frontline firepower. Now it can be said that buying a house in a hot spot is basically cash. Recall the stress test conducted by CBRC at the beginning of the year, and you will know what ZF wants to do now.
Fourth, about the delisting of central enterprises. This problem has great resistance, and it is difficult for people to spit out the fat they have eaten. Fortunately, a brother said that these central enterprises are still very obedient. After all, central enterprises are their own sons and national teams. If you were a father and had something delicious, would you give it to your son or your adopted son? The truth goes without saying, is the housing market still a delicious piece of meat?
Fifth, on the issue of property tax. This issue has both a realistic side and a political height. Practically speaking, the land to be sold has been sold out. It can be seen from the news of demolition in various places over the past year that people often die in demolition, but they are still being demolished. Why demolition because there is no land to sell? This must change, and taxes must be collected from existing houses to support local governments. As the other side of the political height, that is to win the hearts and minds of the people. Tell a story: "When Wu Zetian ascended the throne, she reused cruel officials. In fact, he was involved in a big cleaning. After the purge, he killed the cruel officials and became the embodiment of justice. In fact, she did it alone, but the situation is different. " Compared with ZQ, ten real estate crashes are not enough, and the property tax is likely to cause an avalanche effect. Some people say that the tax rate of real estate tax is insignificant compared with the increase of house prices, but I want to say that real estate tax has completely eliminated the motivation for house prices to continue to rise. Similar to the "530" stock market effect in 2007, only increasing the stamp duty by two thousandths crushed the crazy bull market in the stock market. Within 5 thousand, many stocks fell for five consecutive days, because everyone made a lot of money, which was typical of killing more. The higher the house price rises, the more property tax will be paid, and it will be paid every year. There must be many people who can't afford or don't want to afford a house. The housing supply in the market has soared, just like the effect of the stock market selling too much and buying too little. The transaction price keeps falling, digesting the quotation. China people's mentality of buying up and not buying down will be brought into full play, which will lead to a series of avalanches. In the case of falling house prices, it is more important to win people's support for D. At this time, D will push the role of a cruel official as a developer to the front desk as a scapegoat.
There is another saying that people move out of real estate to save the economy. Don't worry. Yi Ge said that 20 1 1 building a large number of affordable housing is actually to use affordable housing to relay investment in commercial housing construction and stimulate the economy. In fact, affordable housing is also real estate. In fact, it is not high housing prices that drive the economy, but the construction industry, service industry and financial industry in the process of construction.
The introduction of property tax does not need to be fully rolled out. As long as it is piloted, its effect can already be reflected. The reason why there is no pilot project is that the central enterprises have withdrawn from the market, the quality of bank assets has not yet been put in place, and the construction of affordable housing is not ready. Next year is likely to be a major project similar to the expansion of domestic demand in 2008, and the time will be ripe for the nationwide construction of affordable housing.
Some people may say that there are enough commercial houses now, so why do you need so many houses? Here is another story: 1933. After the New Deal, American President Roosevelt tried to stimulate the economy. He once thought of a way to hire a group of workers to dig holes in the west, and then hire a group of workers to fill the holes, and so on. Workers have to eat bread, which leads to food production and catering processing, workers have to wear clothes, which leads to textile and clothing related industries, and so on. In the same way, we can fight to stimulate the economy.
As for the formalities of collecting property tax, it is very troublesome. Please rest assured that our tax authorities in D are very efficient and no one will do anything to rob money. Anyway, just rob the house when you see it. Do you carry it? !
Sixth, on the issue of raising interest rates. Recently, in addition to raising interest rates slightly, the central bank also raised the reserve ratio three times and adjusted its monetary policy. Interest is the price of money. Once the interest rate hike affects not only real estate, but also manufacturing, commerce, household savings, etc., interest rate differentiation between industries is not feasible, which is why most of the "4 trillion" has bypassed the corner and entered real estate. China's manufacturing environment is still worrying. Next year's exports will definitely face a decline. At present, domestic demand is sluggish, so raising interest rates has never been used. In addition, raising interest rates will accelerate the inflow of domestic hot money, expand the profit space of hot money, directly increase the burden on property buyers, and cause drastic changes in the property market. If monetary policy returns to normal, interest will definitely increase, at least the real interest rate will exceed zero. However, once the interest rate is raised, it means that the action on real estate has begun, and interest rates should not be raised before the relevant preparatory work is done well.
Seventh, the real estate regulation in the coming year. Over the past year, in various official media, the most talked about is to change the mode of economic development and accelerate economic transformation, which is actually to get rid of dependence on real estate. Cultivate new energy, new energy vehicles, new materials, etc. But in fact, saying and doing are completely different things. It is precisely because of the huge wealth effect of real estate that it has caused great obstacles to economic transformation, and private enterprises and capital continue to drill into real estate. I have been doing the Twelfth Five-Year Plan recently and have a clear understanding of this. Therefore, in order to realize economic transformation, we must restrain the wealth effect of real estate and guide social capital to invest in emerging industries that ZF hopes to develop. From this point of view, the real estate regulation and control will continue to increase in the coming year. (You can refer to the suggestions in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan of the Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee. There is still a very important time window next year, which is the last full year of the current government term. Obviously, the worst of the real estate problem cannot be left to the successor. The ideal situation is to leave a calm after the storm, which is called political legacy. However, the reform will inevitably face pain. This pain should be completed during this term, and it will take about a year to leave one. " You will also understand why some people are busy alienating each other.
Eighth, about inflation. Recently, in the official media, monetary policy has focused on managing inflation expectations. Inflation is largely a by-product of Sino-US competition. Americans hope to gain the social wealth of other countries through the appreciation of the yen and the exchange of local and foreign currencies, just as they did with the Japanese. However, we adopted the methods of external appreciation and internal depreciation to hedge this effect, which led to the flood of money. Some time ago, I noticed that deflation has appeared in developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan, that is, the price level has been decreasing; In developing countries, inflation has emerged and the price level has risen rapidly. The usual rule is that when the economy is in an upward channel, it is often accompanied by inflation; When the economy is in the downward channel, it is often accompanied by deflation. The biggest price increase this year is mainly concentrated in food, bulk raw materials, gold and real estate. Needless to say, agricultural and sideline products such as real estate and grain are mainly raised by capital speculation. Agricultural and sideline products can't be sold in the field, and the price of sales terminals such as supermarkets is high, so there is no need to ask who owns the profits. The pricing power of bulk raw materials, gold and grain is the easiest to control in the international futures market. Generally speaking, it should be deflation, declining economic benefits and rising costs. Social service operators raise prices to ensure profits, which gives people the impression of inflation, but it is essentially depressing. Combined with the previous interest rate increase, the policy is now making every effort to reduce the amount of money in the market, which is due to excessive investment in 2009.
But for us ordinary people, please look after your money bag. Once the real estate fluctuates violently, a considerable amount of money will be trapped in it, resulting in a decrease in the amount of social money and everyone is short of money everywhere. Recently, I have noticed that many banks are trying their best to collect deposits, but in fact, there are signs of this now. There is only a wall between inflation and deflation. If, in the case of economic depression, the country still invests heavily, the result will be hyperinflation, and some people will not be able to afford to eat. Don't expect food subsidies, it is impossible to send them to others so soon.
Ninth, look ahead. Follow-up policies for real estate regulation. If the housing security law is introduced, the role of the law is not to sentence people, but to clarify the responsibilities of all parties concerned, and to avoid wrangling with interest groups and changing policies. After the promulgation of this law, the real estate market will really stabilize. There will be no suppression of the rescue of the market tomorrow today. If the capital gains tax on real estate transactions is introduced, which is similar to the special stamp duty in Hong Kong now, then you can't speculate in real estate. The state has to pay more than 20% of the profits, and there is a 20% tax on the transaction link, and there are market risks. Then the state has closed the door to real estate speculation. The object and scope of property tax collection must be similar to personal income tax in the end, and everyone has a share, but it is just a matter of words.
To sum up, today's real estate is the result of the interaction of politics, economy, foreign trade, exchange rate, industrial structure and other functions, but also mixed with the background of political forces, which has involved all ordinary people, merchant groups and political forces, deeply touched the most fundamental economic interests of all social strata and is difficult to adjust. In the absence of a sound legal system, I did not make adequate institutional preparations and rashly opened Pandora's Box. What some people in Macao say is not all wrong. It is conceivable that when someone opened this box, his purpose might really be to do a big job and catch up with the beauty of the Premier League, but no country in the world has successfully stepped out of the real estate cycle. Is it okay? /kloc-after the real estate movement in 0/923, I really don't want the scene of chicken feathers everywhere like Hainan, Beihai in Guangxi and Huizhou in Guangdong to be staged in the north and south of the Yangtze River.
Finally, I hope everyone can help themselves in this storm that affects our lives. Stop obsessing about the house and ask yourself, is the value of human life only equal to the value of the house?