165438+1On October 25th, the central bank announced its decision to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on February 5th, 2022. After this reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is about 7.8%.
The RRR cut will release about 500 billion yuan of long-term funds. This RRR cut is a comprehensive RRR cut. Except for some corporate financial institutions that implement the deposit reserve ratio of 5%, the deposit reserve ratio of other financial institutions is generally lowered by 0.25 percentage points.
Regarding the purpose of the RRR cut, the relevant person in charge of the central bank said: First, maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, maintain a reasonable increase in the total amount of money and credit, implement a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, increase support for the real economy, and support the effective improvement of economic quality and reasonable growth in quantity. The second is to optimize the capital structure of financial institutions, increase the long-term and stable sources of funds for financial institutions, enhance the ability of financial institutions to allocate funds, and support industries and small and medium-sized enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic. Third, RRR cuts reduce the capital cost of financial institutions by about 5.6 billion yuan every year, which can promote the reduction of comprehensive financing cost of the real economy through the transmission of financial institutions.
Why is it reduced at this node?
The National Business Daily reporter noted that this is the second RRR cut implemented by the central bank during the year. On April 15, the central bank announced that it had decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points on April 25, 2022, and this RRR cut released about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds.
The RRR cut by the central bank is a comprehensive RRR cut, and the RRR cut is still 0.25 percentage points, releasing about 500 billion yuan of long-term funds.
Zhou, a macro researcher in the financial market department of China Everbright Bank, said in an interview with the National Business Daily WeChat that the central bank lowered RRR by 0.25 percentage points. On the one hand, the domestic RRR reduction space is shrinking, and the central bank cherishes the normal policy space. On the other hand, the frequent appearance of structural instruments in the past is equivalent to increasing the supply of base money and maintaining a reasonable and abundant market liquidity. At present, the domestic economy is facing a complex and changeable environment, and policies need to balance multiple goals. Monetary policy should maintain a moderate growth in aggregate, guide more financial institutions to implement structural tools, and improve the accuracy and quality of policies.
Analyzing the reasons for the RRR cut, the chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly told the reporter: "Since June 5438+00, due to multiple factors at home and abroad, the macro economy is facing certain downward pressure. This week, the the State Council executive meeting also mentioned that the economic operation in the fourth quarter is very important to the economy of the whole year. On the other hand, it is also necessary to further enhance the function of finance to support the real economy. Considering that the entire banking system lacks medium-and long-term liquidity supply, the central bank has implemented RRR cuts. "
Zhou believes: "The main reason is that domestic demand is in the recovery stage, the global demand outlook is slowing down, and the domestic macro economy is still facing downward pressure; Monthly macroeconomic data fluctuates greatly, reflecting that the foundation of economic recovery is not solid enough; It is necessary for finance to increase its support for the real economy, consolidate the foundation of economic recovery, and accelerate the return to normal. "
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhilian Finance, told reporters: "According to the report of social financing and financial statistics released by the central bank in June, the increase of social financing and loans in June decreased. Although the medium and long-term loans of enterprises have maintained a high prosperity, the growth of residential loans is weak. This reflects that the effective financing demand is still insufficient, and the macro economy is facing greater downward pressure. Therefore, China's monetary policy should be further strengthened, and it is necessary and urgent to reduce RRR. "
What role will the brigadier general play?
When talking about what role the interest rate cut will play, I think that, first, it will enhance the bank's credit expansion ability. By reducing RRR to release long-term low-cost funds, reduce the debt cost of banks, enhance the ability of credit expansion, and increase support for small and micro enterprises, weak links in the real economy, infrastructure and other key areas to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate.
Second, maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. In June, 5438+500 billion yuan MLF expired in February, which increased the liquidity demand at the end of the year. By moderately reducing RRR release liquidity, keep liquidity reasonable and sufficient.
The third is to stabilize market expectations. Recently, market volatility has intensified, and the central bank has released long-term liquidity by reducing RRR, which will help stabilize the market's expectation of reasonable and abundant liquidity. In addition, the RRR cut at the end of the year is also a concrete manifestation of the cross-cycle adjustment policy.
Dong Ximiao believes: "RRR reduction is not only a function of providing liquidity support to banks, but also has three functions in general."
He analyzed and pointed out: First, release liquidity to financial institutions and maintain a reasonable and sufficient market liquidity. This time, the RRR cut will release about 500 billion yuan of long-term funds to financial institutions; The second is to reduce the capital cost of financial institutions and enhance the sustainability of financial institutions' profits to the real economy. The RRR cut will reduce the capital cost of financial institutions by about 5.6 billion yuan every year; The third is to send a clear policy signal to guide financial institutions to better help stabilize growth, expand domestic demand, and further stabilize market confidence and expectations.
Dong Ximiao said that after the RRR cut was implemented on February 5, 65438, the bank's capital cost was reduced and the bank's motivation to reduce points was enhanced. LPR, especially the five-year national debt of LPR, is expected to fall this month. This will help to further reduce the burden of residents' housing consumption, boost residents' willingness and ability to consume housing, and help the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Ming Ming said: "This RRR cut can provide medium and long-term liquidity supply, and at the same time reduce the debt cost of banks, thus further reducing the financing cost of the real economy and exerting the function of financial stability."
What is the impact on the financial market?
In the interview, many experts also answered questions such as "the impact of the RRR cut on the financial market".
Zhou analyzed the impact of interest rate cuts from three aspects: stock market, bond market and exchange rate. In terms of the stock market, he said that from the current internal and external environment, the main contradiction of the domestic economy is insufficient effective demand, increasing financial support for the recovery of the real economy, and getting greater support for the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises, infrastructure projects, real estate and other industries, which will help boost market confidence, stimulate the vitality of micro-subjects, and promote accelerated economic recovery; Market liquidity remains reasonable and abundant, and the overall valuation of the stock market is low, which is good for market risk appetite as a whole.
Regarding the bond market, he believes that the short-term economy is still in the recovery stage, domestic support for the real economy has increased, and market liquidity is expected to remain reasonable and abundant; With the recent gradual recovery of market sentiment, it is good for the bond market as a whole; On the other hand, because the domestic economy has not deviated from the recovery track, the fundamentals do not support a sharp drop in interest rates in the bond market.
Regarding the exchange rate issue, Zhou said that the central bank's interest rate cut is good news for the RMB exchange rate, mainly because the interest rate cut has not changed the tone of sound monetary policy. At the same time, RRR cut interest rates in order to increase support for the real economy and promote the active acceleration and stabilization of the economy. The stability of fundamentals constitutes a strong support for the exchange rate. Reducing RRR to stabilize market liquidity expectations will help stabilize financial market sentiment.
Predicting the direction of monetary policy in the next stage, Dong Ximiao said: "As one of the few major economies that has implemented normal monetary policy in recent years, although China's monetary policy has increased its support for the real economy in recent years, it has always maintained a stable tone, without excessive currency and implementing easing measures such as' flooding'. In addition, the price level in China has remained basically stable. According to the data of 5438+00 in June, the CPI increased by 2. 1% year-on-year, and the inflation situation is moderate and controllable, so there will be little inflationary pressure in the future. After the RRR cut, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions in China is 7.8%, which is still at a high level. Therefore, there is still room for reduction in RRR in the future. "