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The impact of long and short positions opening and closing in futures on trading volume and positions

In the technical analysis of futures graphics, the cooperation between trading volume and open interest is very important. Correctly understanding the relationship between trading volume and changes in open interest can more accurately grasp the graphic K-line analysis combination, which is conducive to an in-depth understanding of the market language. The following is an analysis of the four dynamic situations in which trading volume and open interest match.

1 Trading volume gradually increases, and positions also increase simultaneously.

This situation is most common in futures trends. It mostly occurs at the beginning of a unilateral market, when the price trend is in turmoil. The serious differences between the long and short parties about the market outlook have resulted in a competition for funds in the market. However, the price has not yet formed a unified consolidation range at this time, and the price fluctuations are rapid and frequent, giving short-term investors enough room to make profits. At this time, the expansion of trading volume is due to the accumulation of short-term funds in and out, while the expansion of positions shows the accumulation of long and short energy. In this case, you can feel the changes in the strength of the long and short forces from the market, and at the same time, combined with the previous market trend, you can judge the direction of the market change.

2 The trading volume gradually decreases and the open interest gradually increases.

This situation is often a precursor to the coming of a big market. At this time, the combined effects of the power of both long and short parties and external factors in the market make the market reach a dynamic balance. The decrease in transactions is due to the gradual equilibrium of the price fluctuation range, making short-term funds unprofitable. However, the increase in positions means that the differences between the long and short parties have increased, and the capital confrontation has gradually escalated. Since the outcome of the disagreement was not clear, the long and short positions refused to give in to each other and increased their positions one after another. No party was the first to break the deadlock, and the transactions gradually decreased, waiting for the final breakthrough. The subsequent trend of this situation is very fierce, and false breakthroughs rarely occur. Once it breaks out, at least an intermediate market should appear, so investors should do a good job in fund management.

3 The trading volume gradually increases and the position gradually decreases.

This situation generally occurs during a period of market relay, and is accompanied by the phenomenon of long kills and empty kills. Since the market is favorable to one of the long and short parties, the opposite party flees one after another, and its positions gradually decrease. However, the rapid movement of prices provides a good opportunity for short-term speculation, so short-term funds actively intervene, and the transaction volume does not decrease. Sometimes the increase in short-term positions conceals the exit of long-term funds, resulting in a less obvious trend of reduction in positions. In this case, there may be a mid-term rebound. Due to the sharpness of the rebound, it often gives people the feeling of a trend change, but the original trend will still maintain.

4 Trading volume gradually decreases, and positions gradually decrease.

This situation often occurs when a market wave gradually ends. The simultaneous contraction of trading volume and open interest proves that both the long and short parties or one of them has lost confidence in the market outlook, and funds are gradually withdrawing from the market. If this situation continues to develop, it will provide favorable conditions for new funds to intervene and become a precursor to market changes. Since the trading volume and positions are relatively small, the market is easily affected by external factors, and price fluctuations are very random, which will cause unnecessary losses to investors.

It can be seen from the above situation: trading volume is the basic driving force for market development. When trading volume increases, price changes tend to be active, and when trading volume decreases, price changes tend to ease; open interest is the internal driving force for market development. , increasing positions is the beginning of a market, and reducing positions is the end of a market.