By the year 2000, China's grain output will reach 500 million tons relatively steadily, resulting in an oversupply of some agricultural products. Under this premise, the grain growth rate will continue to rise, and the total supply of food security may increase substantially. If the grain planting area in China is stable at16.5-1680,000 mu in 2 1 century, the total grain output (20 10) will fluctuate around 580 million tons in the future. However, it cannot be said that there will be a buyer's market with oversupply in agricultural production in China. The reason is that after entering 2 1 century, ecological balance, natural disasters and other factors exist, and indirect food consumption, food transformation and food structure adjustment of urban and rural residents will increase food expenditure or consumption. At the same time, the accelerated development of urbanization, industrialization and economic globalization in rural areas has led to the high growth of the total demand for indirect grain consumption in China, forming a mechanism that consumption deviates from the resource-based market. Driven by interests, this mechanism will reduce the investment in grain production, especially in the infrastructure and management of grain production. After the buyer's market is formed, economic globalization will make the price of grain fall and the enthusiasm of grain production decline, so we should take precautions. After China's entry into WTO, agricultural production, especially the grain market, will have a negative impact on the domestic market.
Countermeasures to ensure food security in China
(1) Changing the pattern of grain supply and demand and adjusting the grain production structure.
1, adjust the grain production structure from two levels. In the long run, China's grain production should undergo major structural adjustment. The first level is the adjustment of quality structure of the same variety. For example, the yield of japonica rice is about 15% lower than that of indica rice. If we encourage the cultivation of high-quality rice, we can not only solve the contradiction between supply and demand, but also reduce the output and promote the balance between supply and demand. The second level is the adjustment of variety structure. For example, the quality and production conditions of soybeans have great advantages for China, which can expand the planting area. At the same time, it can reduce the planting of corn, especially the high moisture corn in Northeast China. On the one hand, it can reduce the pressure on corn, on the other hand, it can increase feed protein, reduce the import of edible oil, and save some foreign exchange for the country. At the same time, do a good job in the basic balance of grain import and export.
2. Continue to protect farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain. On the one hand, the food supply is more than enough, which has a positive effect; On the other hand, China's grain production has the characteristics of large-scale operation, and the role of market economy makes the grain output fluctuate greatly. So as to provide accurate and timely information to producers; First, government departments can publish the information table of supply and demand in time, and second, further improve the grain futures trading market and trading system to protect the enthusiasm of grain farmers.
(2) Establish and improve the grain production protection mechanism.
1, the government specially regulates the grain reserve throughput and establishes a grain buffer reserve mechanism. Specifically, the agricultural tax of1000 billion kilograms can be directly converted into special reserves, and the insufficient part can be purchased from the market. In this way, the grain price system is straightened out, the burden on farmers is reduced, and the government will not increase the financial burden.
2, establish new quality inspection standards, and in line with international standards. According to the internal quality of grain in market demand, the quality price difference, seasonal price difference, regional price difference and physical price difference will be further widened to further standardize the inspection operation. Grain producers have a clear aim, put high-quality grain varieties into the national grain depot and promote the consistency of international and domestic food standards.
3. Reform the basic conditions of agricultural production and increase support for agricultural science and technology.
(3) Adjusting the domestic market and stabilizing the import and export of grain.
1, in order to make the domestic grain not fluctuate greatly, it is necessary to isolate the domestic grain market from the international grain market to a certain extent. After China's entry into WTO, all trade barriers will be taxed and isolation measures will be restricted. The following measures can be taken: (1) The import and export tariffs on grain must be unified nationwide; (2) Grain import and export trade should still be operated by state-owned grain purchase and sale enterprises; (3) The national grain reserve system can participate in international trade to some extent.
2, the appropriate increment, make up for the shortage of food in the domestic market. If the domestic grain price is lower than the international market price and there is a grain shortage, importing grain is a loss. In addition to low tariffs, the state should also give subsidies according to the difference of "international food price+tariff-domestic food price". If the price of grain in the domestic market is higher than that in the international market, grain merchants will automatically import grain. In this case, in order to stimulate domestic grain production, the state should set a target price, raise the purchase price of grain, and make the total grain tend to be balanced.
3, the domestic market price is lower than the international market, organize grain export. On the premise of food surplus, exporting food will increase domestic food prices, which is beneficial to farmers and will not lead to an increase in market food prices. At the same time, state financial subsidies can be reduced, and the core issue is to prevent excessive exports. In the case of domestic food shortage, when the domestic food price is lower than the international market, there may be two situations: first, the increase of domestic food price is lower than the international market; Second, after the state threw out grain reserves to stabilize food prices, domestic food prices were lower than the international market. In the former case, domestic food is insufficient, and reorganizing exports will aggravate the shortage and affect the stability of the grain market, and the state should take administrative measures to stop it; In the latter case, if the grain sold to stabilize food prices is bought by exporters, the purpose of stabilizing food prices will not be achieved, and the amount of subsidies will be earned by exporters, which must be solved by tariff method.
In a word, economic globalization has a great influence on domestic food security, which must be controlled by economic, administrative and legal means to achieve the goals of people's life stability, social stability and economic development.