2006-4- 17 19:28:06
On April 1 1, the price of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures broke through the $600 mark per ounce, and soared to $604.22 at midday that day, setting a 25-year high since 198 1. Accompanied by this, the international precious metal prices rose in an all-round way, repeatedly breaking through the psychological market price.
Affected by the international market, the domestic gold price is "rising". On April 1 1 day, the closing price of 9999 gold per gram of Shanghai Gold Exchange reached 155.05 yuan. The price of gold ornaments in various places has also risen across the board. The price of thousands of gold in Beijing has been raised from 165 yuan to 175 yuan, while in Shanghai it has risen to 180 yuan, and Guangzhou has reached the highest level in 200 yuan, both of which are the highest levels in 20 years.
A few months ago, when the price of gold hovered around $550, there were different opinions in the market. Some institutions predict that the price of gold will fall back to about $350 ~ 375 per ounce this year. However, as the gold price remained firm and broke through the $600 mark under the negative background of the Fed 15 interest rate hike, the bearish voice quietly disappeared, and most international investment institutions raised their gold price expectations one after another.
On April 13, London gold closed at $595.50 an ounce-slightly lower than the previous day's $ 600. 18. On the same day, Zheng, managing director of the Far East Region of the World Gold Council, accepted an exclusive interview with this newspaper on this round of gold price surge.
The rising market will last for a long time.
2 1 century: what is the current high point? Can we break through the price of 1980?
Zheng: I can't talk about it. Now all analysts, including foreign experts, have this view and think it will increase.
"2 1 century": in this round of rise, not only the price of gold has risen, but also precious metals such as copper, silver and platinum have risen. This seems to be different from the skyrocketing market of 1980.
Zheng: Yes. In this round of rise, the price is not only gold, but also other precious metals. The prices of raw materials, including coal and oil, have gone up. The main reason why these commodities have been pushed up is the special pursuit of these commodities by two major developing countries-China and India. Because the overall economic growth of these two countries has driven commodity prices.
2 1 century: how long do you think this rising market will last?
Zheng: Whether house prices will rise or not will ultimately depend on the changes in supply and demand. Now that demand has increased, has supply increased? Before 150, the annual output of gold was about 25 tons. Due to the discovery of a large number of gold mines and the improvement of mining technology in the 19 century, the gold output increased greatly. However, in 2004, the reserves of gold mining companies decreased from 1992 to 17, and then to 1 1. Many big miners say that their minerals will not increase in the next five to seven years, because no new big mines have been found in these years, that is, nothing new has been found, so the supply will not increase.
The expected depreciation of the US dollar is the main reason.
"2 1 century": This round of market is easy to recall the skyrocketing price of gold at 1980. What are the similarities and differences in their causes?
Zheng: The quotation of 1980 was based on the political crisis and economic recession at that time. The dollar depreciated twice at 197 1 and 1973, and then the price of gold doubled in two oil crises. In particular, the American hostage crisis in Iran at the end of 1979 and the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan triggered global political turmoil, which led to a huge demand for gold in the international market and rising prices. On the day of1980,65438+10, 18, the gold price in London was as high as 835.5 USD/oz, while the gold futures price in new york was 1000 USD/oz, reaching the highest price in gold history.
Judging from the current round of gold rising factors, it is similar to geopolitical fluctuations, which is the recent Iranian nuclear crisis.
Economically, investors expect the dollar to fall.
An important proof of the expected decline of the US dollar is that the US fiscal deficit and trade deficit have reached record highs every year, and investors have great doubts about how to solve the deficit in the United States.
2 1 century: is this suspicion enough to affect the price of gold?
Zheng: Because the deficit is too large, what may happen is the depreciation of the US dollar. The next step of devaluation is to "pass it on" to countries that buy their bonds, including China and other Asian countries. The biggest impact of the depreciation of the dollar is gold. When the dollar depreciation is expected to happen, investors will wait for gold for a long time.
2 1 century: What is the current trend of gold price and US dollar?
Zheng: Generally speaking, the interest rate of the US dollar was higher in the past, which was not good for gold. In other words, the higher the dollar interest rate, the fewer people buy gold. However, in this round of market, the United States has been raising interest rates, but the price of gold has also been rising. Maybe investors don't believe that the purchasing power of dollars can preserve the value-even if I get high interest, it's useless to get it.
Will not have a substantial impact on China's economy.
"2 1 century": the continuous rise of international gold prices has also driven domestic gold prices. What impact will this sustained rise have on China's economy?
Zheng: In my opinion, there will be no substantial impact. Although the production and processing capacity of gold producers in China cannot be greatly improved in a short period of time, the increased demand for gold is also largely dependent on imports, which may cause anxiety about the pressure of RMB exchange rate stability. But in fact, due to the current stable RMB exchange rate in China and even the pressure of appreciation, the country has abundant foreign exchange reserves. Under the premise that the RMB is not fully convertible and the gold market is not open to the outside world, it is difficult for the increased gold imports to have an improper impact on the RMB exchange rate.
2 1 century: Are there any figures to support this view?
Zheng: It's simple. At present, the consumption of gold in China has remained at around 200 tons for several years. After the opening of the gold market, the investment demand for gold is expected to increase substantially, and the consumer demand is likely to be basically the same as in previous years. For example, in 2004, the demand for gold in China only increased by about 30 tons. Even if all 30 tons of gold are met by imports, the required funds will not exceed 500 million US dollars. Compared with China's foreign exchange reserves of hundreds of billions of dollars, the pressure of RMB exchange rate should be very small, even almost negligible. According to international experience, the demand for gold market increased rapidly in the initial stage of opening up, and then it will be flat or even reduced. Therefore, the impact of the opening of the gold market on the RMB exchange rate is within the controllable range.
265438+20th century: According to your opinion, it seems that most of the increase in gold demand comes from investment demand?
Zheng: Yes. In recent years, the investment demand has increased significantly, according to our calculations, at least by 30%. Therefore, most of the increase in demand for gold comes from investment.
2 1 Century: What are the advantages of investment?
Zheng: The global demand for gold mainly comes from four aspects: the demand for jewelry processing, the demand for electronics, communication equipment and other industries, the demand for currency reserves of the central bank, and the demand for storage and investment of gold ingots and coins by private investors. Among them, the demand for jewelry gold is dominant, accounting for about 70%. China's gold consumption is dominated by jewelry, accounting for about 96% of the total market consumption.
2 1 century: As you said, the high price of gold attracted a lot of investment and speculative funds. Will this put pressure on China or the world financial market?
Zheng: The gold investment market is still a small piece for the whole investment market. In recent years, oil prices have soared, and oil-producing countries have high purchasing power. Some people exchange money earned from oil for gold. In addition, there are also a lot of money to invest or speculate in gold. However, the overall investment in the entire gold market is really too small, and there are only one or two points on the overall investment market, such as foreign exchange investment, which will certainly not have much impact.