After a period of rising, the price of urea has dropped. Recently, negative market factors have accumulated, and urea prices have stopped falling.
In terms of corn, the market turnover increased rapidly, and the demand side did not follow up, resulting in a decline in corn prices.
Sheep prices are uncharacteristically rising in the off-season of traditional consumption.
Early warning of "tragic drop" of pig price
On February 3rd, the national average price of live pigs continued to drop by 0. 14 yuan/kg, and the average price dropped to 14.47 yuan/kg.
Specific to the regional prices, East China dropped to 7-7.5 yuan, Central China to 6.7-7. 15 yuan, South China to 6.7-8.2 yuan, North China to 6.8-7.3 yuan, Northeast China to 6.8-7.2 yuan and Southwest China to 6.4-7 yuan.
It is not difficult to find that pig prices in various places have fallen below the cost price across the board, and the losses at the breeding end have continued to intensify.
However, pig dealers believe that this is not the lowest price of pigs, and it will continue to fall in the future. The specific logic is as follows:
1, the backlog of big pigs in southwest and northeast China is still serious.
2. After the epidemic stabilized, although catering and tourism continued to recover, it could not change the downturn of pork consumption after the Spring Festival.
3. In some areas, under the stimulation of low temperature, non-plague resurfaced, and many farmers were forced to slaughter or even clear their stocks.
4. The price of pigs continues to be low, and the losses at the breeding end are serious. Some farmers eliminated sows and further increased the supply of pork in the market.
It is estimated that the low price of pigs this time should be around 6.5 yuan. First, some areas have issued early commencement notices to students. Second, affected by the epidemic years ago, there were not many bacon and frozen meat, which helped to restore fresh meat consumption after the holiday.
Third, after the feed price skyrockets and the pig price continues to fall, the willingness of the breeding end to stand at a high price will increase.
Urea "great stability and small decline"
Some time ago, the price of urea continued to rise, even if the increase slowed down, it failed to change the trend of price increase.
In the last two days, due to the downward trend of futures urea prices, spot urea prices have "substantially stabilized and declined", and some manufacturers have begun to loosen.
At present, the mainstream turnover of small and medium-sized particles in Shandong is about 2750-2770 yuan/ton, small particles in Hebei are about 2730-2750 yuan/ton, small and medium-sized particles in Jiangsu are about 2870-2890 yuan/ton, and small and medium-sized particles in Yunnan are about 2850-2900 yuan/ton.
Urea prices stopped rising and stabilized, mainly due to the following changes:
1, the international urea price went down, driving the domestic urea price.
2. The market is worried about the impact of short storage, and the bearish mood in the market has increased, which has suppressed the promotion of urea demand to some extent.
3. Agricultural demand is gradually stabilizing, and large-scale demand has not yet arrived.
4. At present, it is generally early delivery, the demand for new orders is slow to follow up, and the advance payment is less than expected.
In the short term, the price of urea is insufficient, the possibility of further increase is reduced, and the market may be deadlocked.
The corn fell back.
In recent days, corn prices have continued to fall. Corn rose briefly for two days after the holiday. Traders in the industry and grassroots farmers cheered. Who wants to reach the peak when the market opens? After a short rise, it suffered a decline.
On February 3rd, Shandong deep processing enterprises generally lowered their prices by 0.5- 1.3 point, while North China lowered their prices by 0.5- 1.5 point, and the quotations of deep processing enterprises in Northeast China were temporarily stable.
The downward trend of corn price is mainly affected by the following factors:
1. Grassroots farmers have stepped out of the New Year atmosphere and started selling grain. The market capacity has increased. In the past two days, the surplus vehicles of Shandong deep processing enterprises have been maintained at a high level in the morning, lasting 1000.
2. Deep processing enterprises prepared a large number of stocks years ago, but the demand of enterprises did not follow up after the year.
3. The price of pigs continues to be low, and the demand for corn at the feed end is in doubt.
Next, the price of corn is still easy to fall and difficult to rise. At present, the demand brought by the recovery of the catering industry is good and has not been transmitted to the supply side. On the supply side, grass-roots farmers have the need to raise funds to prepare for spring sowing after spring. After the temperature rises, it is more difficult to store tidal grain and the quantity will increase. At the same time, the delivery of drying towers in Northeast China has gradually increased recently, and the demand for live pigs is sluggish. It is expected that the corn market will fluctuate steadily and slightly.
The price of sheep has risen abnormally.
At present, mutton consumption is at a low point, but the price of live sheep has risen abnormally. Shandong Bird's Nest and Hebei Tangxian two sheep raising bases have obviously increased their prices. Compared with the pre-holiday period, the small-tailed Han sheep increased by about 1.7 yuan, the fine-wool sheep increased by about 1.5 yuan, and Xinmin sheep increased by about 2. 1 yuan, with an increase of about 10%.
I think the abnormal rise in sheep prices is inseparable from the following factors:
1. During the Spring Festival, tourism and catering resumed, the demand for mutton soared, and the market hoarded mutton, which was widely consumed.
2. Years ago, the price of sheep continued to be low, and farmers suffered serious losses. In order to stop the loss, the slaughter enthusiasm was high, and the supply of live sheep after the holiday was overdrawn.
3. Farmers who need to eliminate ewes are basically eliminated.
4. After the epidemic situation is stabilized, consumption will pick up and the demand for mutton will increase.
At present, the supply of live sheep market is insufficient in stages, and it is expected that there is still room for further increase in sheep prices, but it may still take April and May to completely reverse the previous decline.