First, although there is no shortage of natural gas resources, due to the buyer's failure to implement it, some resources cannot enter the market, and the relative reduction of supply will make the market tense; Second, the demand for natural gas still maintains a strong growth momentum; Third, the nuclear abandonment policies of Germany, Switzerland, Italy and other countries will increase the demand for natural gas. In the future, the global natural gas price will show a steady upward trend. As the market tightens, the link between gas prices and oil prices will remain for some time. Only the United States is an exception. Affected by the characteristics of the regional market, the spot price of natural gas in North America will maintain steady growth.
It is predicted that by 20 15, the world natural gas consumption will reach about 3.5 trillion cubic meters, with an average annual increase of more than 3%. More than 80% of the demand growth comes from non-OECD countries. The Middle East will become the main source of future production growth, accounting for more than 40% of the global natural gas increase. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq are the main producers, but only about 1/3 of their output can be exported. Russia and Turkmenistan account for about 10% of the increase. The growth of natural gas production in Africa mainly comes from Algeria and Nigeria. The growth of OECD output mainly comes from North America and Australia.
(2) The rapid growth of natural gas consumption in developing countries and resource countries has further changed the world natural gas consumption pattern.
From 1998 to 2008, the world natural gas consumption experienced a continuous growth of 1 1 year, and in 2008, it broke through the 3 trillion cubic meters mark and reached 3.02 trillion cubic meters. In 2009, affected by the international financial crisis and other factors, the world's natural gas consumption fell to 2.94 trillion cubic meters. In 20 10, the global natural gas consumption was 3 17 trillion cubic meters, an increase of 7.4%, the largest increase since 1984. China's natural gas consumption increased by 2 1.8% to107 billion cubic meters, breaking through the100 billion cubic meters mark for the first time.
According to the forecast results of the International Energy Agency, us energy information administration and other institutions, the world demand for natural gas will reach 4.5 trillion to 4.6 trillion cubic meters in 2030. Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are the regions with the fastest growth in world natural gas demand in the future, accounting for more than 50% of the increase in world demand. In recent years, natural gas consumption in China, Indian and Mexican countries has increased rapidly. From 2004 to 20 10, China's natural gas consumption increased at an average annual rate of 18%, and became the fourth largest consumer in the world in 20 10. At the same time, the natural gas consumption of resource countries has also increased rapidly in recent years. From 2004 to 20 10, the natural gas consumption of Iran and Saudi Arabia increased by 8% and 4% respectively.
(3) With the rapid development of unconventional natural gas, the natural gas market structure will undergo major changes.
At present, the world's natural gas consumption is dominated by North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific. For a long time, the three major markets have been relatively independent. From the development trend, the rapid development of unconventional natural gas in North America is changing the supply and demand situation of natural gas in North America. In 2008, the unconventional natural gas production in the United States was 302.7 billion cubic meters, which exceeded the conventional natural gas production for the first time, accounting for about 52% of the natural gas production. Unconventional natural gas will turn the American natural gas market from tight supply to insufficient demand and oversupply, and then export it through liquefied natural gas. This will have a great impact on the world natural gas market structure, and make LNG production for the American market turn to the Asian and European markets.
The world natural gas trade has developed rapidly and regional liquidity has increased. With the rapid development of transnational pipelines and liquefied natural gas, the trade volume of natural gas shows a rapid growth trend. From 2003 to 20 10, the trade volume increased from 581300 million cubic meters to 975.2 billion cubic meters, and the proportion of consumption increased from 22.3% to 30.7%. Among them, the trade volume of pipeline gas increased from 430 billion cubic meters to 677.6 billion cubic meters. The trade of liquefied natural gas has developed more rapidly, from151300 million cubic meters to 297.6 billion cubic meters, nearly doubling. In the next 20 years, the global cross-regional natural gas trade will continue to grow rapidly. Especially with the construction of natural gas pipelines in Central Asia and China-Russia in the future, consumers in Europe and Asia-Pacific will compete for natural gas resources in Central Asia and Russia and LNG resources in the Middle East. The world natural gas market will form a new market pattern in which the North American market is relatively independent and the Asian-European market is more closely linked.
(4) Natural gas power generation is an important driving force for future consumption growth.
There are two main modes of natural gas utilization: one is the balanced utilization mode of developed countries in North America and Europe, which is mainly divided into three categories: industry, power generation and city gas, and basically divided into three parts; Second, developing countries such as Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia take industry and power generation as the main modes. 30% ~ 40% of natural gas consumption is used for power generation, which is the main way of natural gas utilization in these countries.
According to us energy information administration's forecast, the main driving force of natural gas consumption growth in most parts of the world is power generation demand. It is predicted that the average annual growth rate of global power generation gas will be 2. 1% from 2006 to 2030, and the proportion of natural gas in natural gas consumption structure will rise from 3 1% to 35%. The markets in North America and Europe are at a mature stage, and the future growth of natural gas consumption will be mainly driven by industry and power generation. The Asia-Pacific market is in a period of rapid development, and the future growth of natural gas consumption will be driven by industry, power generation and civil consumption.