We often hear who knows some inside information in advance and ambush in advance in order to earn huge price difference from the market and reap huge profits, which obviously involves "information asymmetry".
Let's first look at the definition of "information asymmetry":
Information asymmetry means that everyone has different information in the transaction. In social, political and economic activities, some members hold information that other members can't, which leads to information asymmetry.
In the market economy activities, all kinds of people have different understandings of relevant information; People with sufficient information are often in a favorable position, while those with poor information are at a disadvantage. Asymmetric information may lead to adverse selection. Generally speaking, sellers have more information about trading items than buyers, but counterexamples may exist. The former example can be seen in the sale of used cars. The seller knows the vehicles sold better than the buyer. The latter example is medical insurance, and the buyer usually has more information.
Here, I try to understand what information asymmetry is from three aspects.
1. "Is the information known" belongs to information asymmetry.
2. "Knowing information early and knowing it later" belongs to information asymmetry.
3. "Different processing information" obtained by analyzing and processing the same information also belongs to information asymmetry.
Let me take xiong'an new area, the hottest sector in the A-share capital market this year, as an example.
On April 1 day of this year, that is, Tomb-Sweeping Day holiday, a news about the State Council formally establishing Hebei "xiong'an new area" exploded in the investment community. From the first trading day after the festival on April 5th, the stocks anchored by the market as authentic xiong'an new area concept stocks —— Han Jing, Jinyu, Jidong Cement, Rong Sheng Development, etc. —— started a continuous word board model, and their share prices directly doubled in a short period of time, and the profit-making effect was bursting. In fact, retail investors have no chance to participate in the continuous shrinking of stocks. It is the shareholders who hold these stocks before the festival who eat meat, and some of these shareholders who "double their assets" are just lucky, while others get "inside information" in advance. Among them, "Chengquan Capital" is the most famous one. The fund of this investment company with CITIC Group background just owns all the "xiong'an new area" concept stocks, and all the positions were cleared at the highest opening point. In just a few trading days, the profit was close to RMB 654.38+0 billion, and it became famous in World War I! This is a standard case of taking advantage of the first layer of information asymmetry-"knowing and not knowing information" to make a profit. After that, through the communication with friends in the circle, it was found that the overall secrecy of xiong'an new area's planning was done quite well. Even so, it is impossible to completely avoid the emergence of "rat warehouses". There will always be people who have special access to special information in the capital market. This degree of information asymmetry advantage is impossible for most retail investors, so we should focus on the second and third points.
The second point-the literal meaning of "early knowledge and late knowledge of information" is easier to understand. Although ordinary people are unlikely to know the inside story of major events, you can see it the first time when the inside story is made public. Compared with people who know it for the second time, you actually have the advantage of "information asymmetry". In the capital market, people who make money quickly make money slowly, often referring to short-term jobs. So you need to know the fastest way to get first-hand information, such as paying close attention to major financial portals, Oriental Fortune Network and so on. , and pay attention to important related personnel's Twitter, Weibo and other social accounts. These websites should be kept open in real time when trading, and the mobile APP is also set as a message reminder.
The third point-the ability to process and analyze information, which is where people really distance themselves. Some people think that the same information is excellent, some people think that it is only a neutral information, and some even judge that it is bad. These preliminary judgments will directly guide them how to operate next. Let's take xiong'an new area as an example. Seeing this news, smart investors will dig out the shares related to Xiong 'anci (environmental protection management, underground pipe network) in advance and buy them when they can't participate in a board stock (mainly infrastructure). Some people think that this news is just a plan, and oversight has not formulated a policy, so it chose not to participate. Others think that this is just a branch of "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration". The main force is just to ship well, taking advantage of the pull-up, and the chips have been handed over in the first two daily limit boards. In fact, the essence of these operations is that both sides of the transaction are engaged in endless information games. The final result, in retrospect, is a real "super profit", which is welcomed by mainstream funds in the market and has an excellent effect of making money. So how to analyze the information "which one may be correct in the end", only from personal experience, I think the most important thing is:
I have been engaged in the securities and futures market for several years. This year, I began to pay attention to the opportunities in the blockchain market, which may be because my operating style is particularly sensitive to "news". Recently, I feel that the feedback time of blockchain market to "news" is slower than that of mature market, and the lag is obvious. It may be because the number of participants is not enough and the frequency of news dissemination is not enough. In other words, at least because of "information asymmetry", there is still a great opportunity for "speculation" in this market. In addition, when you see the word "speculation", don't define it as a derogatory term. The purpose of putting real money into the market is to obtain long-term sustainable profits in the market. We need to treat all ways correctly to get sustainable profits. In addition to the well-known "value investment", in fact, I also recognize the logic of value "speculation", and it is also very interesting to have two "operating systems" running in my mind at the same time. In fact, there are some successful non-technical short-term experts in the market, and their research on "value" is no less than that of "value investors". The short-term speculation of top experts is about logic and understanding, not pure technical K-line moving average. I will elaborate on this point later.
In short, whether it is "speculation" or "investment", we can't make mistakes, and we will often make mistakes. The key is to pay attention to market feedback and strengthen the understanding of investment varieties. The market is always right. We will always be students in front of the market, and we must always keep the awe of the market. Finally, it is especially suitable to quote the golden sentence of Ray Daglio, which is often mentioned by Teacher Xiao.