introduction of market interest rate
market interest rate refers to the interest rate determined by the relationship between supply and demand in the capital market. Market interest rates often change due to changes in supply and demand in the capital market. With the market mechanism playing a role, the supply and demand of credit funds will gradually tend to be balanced due to free competition. Economists call this state of market interest rate? Equilibrium interest rate? . The official interest rate corresponds to the market interest rate, and the so-called official interest rate refers to the interest rate set by the monetary authorities. The monetary authority can be a central bank or a government department with actual financial management functions. Before the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy, the interest rate in China was basically the official interest rate. In the process of reform and opening up in recent 2 years, with the change of capital allocation and financing pattern, the proportion of market interest rate in the interest rate system has gradually increased. Official interest rate and market interest rate analyze the interest rate form from the perspective of capital price decision. In fact, under the background of unified official interest rate, the market interest rate will also have many manifestations, which are determined by various financing forms, unbalanced economic development of a country, market segmentation and other factors. For example, in China, there is a considerable gap between the economically developed coastal areas and the economically backward central and western regions.
Formation of market interest rate
When the capital market is completely opened and the management of interest rate is basically lifted, the interest rate is determined by the supply and demand of funds in the market. Funds are tight, supply is less than demand, and interest rates rise: funds are loose, supply is greater than demand, and interest rates fall. In turn, interest rates can affect the supply and demand of funds, and promote the balance between supply and demand of funds when the supply of funds exceeds demand. Due to the profitability of liquidity, the market funds are redundant, and when the interest rate falls, the interest of the fund suppliers will be reduced, which can prompt some money originally intended to be invested in the capital market to be used in other aspects, such as increasing consumption, hoarding goods that can maintain value, expanding the production and business operation of the enterprise, and investing in the stock and futures markets, so as to achieve the purpose of increasing value and maintaining value and reduce the supply of market funds. At the same time, due to the reduction of interest rates, funds are raised from the market for new enterprises or expanding the production or operation scale of existing enterprises, the interest burden is reduced, and it is in a relatively favorable position, and the number of fund-raisers increases, and the demand for funds increases. This may gradually balance the supply and demand of funds in the market. On the other hand, if the demand for funds in the market exceeds the supply, and the interest rate rises, it will cause a series of opposite economic activities. That is, people squeeze out some funds from all sides to invest in the market, such as selling stocks, futures, selling real estate, precious metals and so on. In order to obtain more interest income; At the same time, due to the increase in the cost of raising funds, the profits that may be obtained by using this kind of funds will be reduced, and the funds will be raised as little as possible from the market, so that the shortage of funds will be alleviated. China's capital market has not really formed an interest rate determined by the supply and demand of funds since it was opened. In fact, the interest rate in the capital market is based on the bank interest rate, that is, it is set by the capital market management department according to the principle of slightly higher than the bank interest rate. The market interest rate is slightly higher than the bank interest rate, because most of the credit of the units that raise funds in the market is not as good as that of banks.
what needs to be mentioned is that the financial markets in capitalist countries are very closely linked with foreign markets, which is international to a certain extent. A higher interest rate in the capital market can attract foreign investment and increase the domestic capital supply. For example, the high interest rate policy implemented by the United States in the early 198s attracted a large amount of funds from abroad. Conversely, a country's interest rate was lower, which not only reduced the number of foreigners who came to invest in the country, but also reduced the domestic capital supply. Therefore, the increase or decrease of capital in capitalist countries is very flexible, and interest rates have a significant regulatory effect on the capital market. However, in China, because the enterprise level is not high enough, people's interest concept is weak, and the impact of interest on the supply and demand of funds is relatively small. However, in recent years, the fact that the interest rate of savings deposits has been raised many times, which has brought about a significant increase in livestock deposits and aroused strong repercussions from enterprises when the interest rate of loans was raised, shows that China's interest rate still has many influences on the supply and demand of funds, and it is inappropriate to underestimate these influences.
Influencing factors of market interest rate
Market interest rate has an important influence on bond prices. Generally speaking, the market interest rate increases and the bond price falls; The market interest rate decreases, and the bond price tends to rise. The trend of interest rate is influenced by many factors.
macroeconomic situation factors
economic cycle. From the economic cycle, after the economic recession, products are unsalable, profits are reduced, investment is reduced, and the amount of currency in circulation is increased, which leads to a decline in interest rates. When the economic recession reached the economic crisis, a large number of enterprises closed down, the market was depressed, funds were plentiful, and interest rates fell to the lowest point. The economy will recover slowly after reaching the lowest point. At this time, commodities will start to have a certain sales volume, market investment will be profitable, and interest rates will slowly rise. When the economy reached the stage of prosperity from recovery, commodity production capacity and output increased greatly, commodity sales were in good condition, enterprises began to make a lot of profits, investment increased greatly, money became a scarce factor, and interest rates rose to the highest point.
the impact of the latest macroeconomic situation on the market interest rate
the macroeconomic situation and the tightness of bank credit are the main factors affecting the activity of private financing. Especially in the context of the macro-economic downturn this year, the central bank's monetary policy has made financial institutions relatively abundant, making it relatively difficult for enterprises to borrow from banks, which will inevitably weaken the demand for funds from private lending channels.
The data shows that the average interest rate for 1 days is 21.73%, that for January is 17.7%, that for March is 19.8%, that for six months is 16.45%, that for one year is 16.81%, and that for more than one year the comprehensive interest rate is 24.36%. Compared with the previously published data of Private Financial Street, the average interest rate for the microfinance market is one-year sum.
the growth rate of GDP. According to the statistics of western developed countries and some emerging market economy countries, from 1981 to 2, there was a strong positive correlation between GDP growth rate and interest rate. Before 1987, China's GDP growth rate was basically unrelated to interest rates. However, after 1988, with the gradual improvement of economic marketization, the degree of correlation and interaction between GDP growth rate and interest rate has become higher and higher, and the direction of change has gradually become consistent. Price level. The price level reflects the price of the real economy, and the interest rate reflects the price of funds. If the ex-factory price of industrial products drops greatly, it shows that the demand is seriously insufficient, which has formed a strong constraint on national economic investment and the interest rate will show a downward trend; However, if the consumer price index rises by a large margin, it means that the start of consumer demand will restrain the decline of other price indexes to some extent, and interest rates will show an upward trend.
average social profit rate. As a value-added part of capital, interest comes from industrial profits. From a historical point of view, due to the development of science and technology and the improvement of the organic composition of capital, the average social profit rate has a downward trend. Therefore, the average social interest rate also shows a trend of changing in the same direction, but this process is very slow, that is, in the short term, the average interest rate is relatively stable, and in the long run, it shows a downward trend.
the impact of the international economic and financial situation. With the development of economic and financial globalization, the choice of monetary policy will be more and more restricted by international economic and financial factors. For example,? 9? 11? The incident affected the economic growth of the United States and China, and became one of the factors that contributed to the decline of interest rates.
the effect of the central bank's monetary policy is the statutory deposit reserve interest rate. When the deposit reserve interest rate is raised, the market interest rate shows an upward trend; On the contrary, the market interest rate shows a downward trend. At present, in the inter-bank bond market, the reserve interest rate (1.89%) becomes the lowest income of bank funds. Once the yield in the bond market is lower than 1.89%, investors will not conduct bond business operations.
central bank's foreign exchange market operation. If the central bank throws out RMB and buys dollars, the RMB in circulation will increase and the market interest rate will decline; On the contrary, the market interest rate will show an upward trend.
there are two ways to operate the open market: spot bond trading and repurchase trading. When the central bank continues to buy bonds, the market interest rate will fall; When the central bank keeps selling bonds, the market interest rate will rise. When the central bank continues to carry out repurchase operations, interest rates will show an upward trend; When the central bank continues to carry out reverse repurchase operations, interest rates will show a downward trend.
rediscount rate. Rediscussion refers to the financing business in which commercial banks take discounted bills to the central bank and apply for discounting again at the rediscount rate. When the central bank raises the rediscount rate, the market interest rate shows an upward trend; When the central bank lowered the rediscount rate, the market interest rate showed a downward trend.
the role of market factors, the concentration of funds. If the funds are highly concentrated in the hands of large institutions, the demand for bond trading will be relatively small. Once these institutions trade, it will have a greater impact on the market interest rate, and then the interest rate may fluctuate greatly. On the contrary, the lower the concentration, the more stable it will be.
the number of newly issued bonds. When the number of bonds issued is large and the frequency is high, the amount of money in the market decreases rapidly and the market interest rate tends to rise; When the number of bonds issued is small and the frequency is low, the market funds are loose and the market interest rate will show a downward trend.
stock issuance. Because the issuance of new shares takes up a certain amount of funds, it can often cause large fluctuations in the repurchase rate. At this time, some institutions will integrate funds through repurchase, and the demand for funds will increase. Therefore, interest rates may rise.
the credit of the issuer. The higher the credit, the higher the security, the smaller the risk and the smaller the income. National debt is issued with the national credit, with the highest credit and the lowest in coupon rate; Corporate bonds are the credit of enterprises, with the lowest credit, so it is necessary to attract investors with a higher coupon rate.
interest tax. Interest income from financial bonds and corporate bonds is subject to interest tax of 2%, while national bonds are tax-free. Therefore, the coupon rate of national bonds is generally lower than that of corporate bonds.
liquidity premium. The better the liquidity, the smaller the risk, and the lower the yield of bonds; Bond liquidity is not strong and liquidity risk is high, so it is necessary to make up for it with higher yield.