At the same time, contrary to the price trend of rapeseed oil, the price of rapeseed meal has been weak and stable since Monday, with a slight decline, from more than 2,000 yuan/ton before the holiday to around 1.900 yuan/ton. This week, some small rapeseed in the southwest inland areas began to be listed in small quantities, with a weighing price of about 1.60 yuan/kg, which is valuable but not marketable. There are three main reasons for the sharp rise in spot price of rapeseed oil this week:
First, due to the extremely low turnover in the rapeseed oil market recently, some oil plants forced rapeseed oil dealers to ship quickly in order to pass on the sales pressure, and began to substantially increase the transaction price of rapeseed oil, or began to use the original resources to make oil in small packages, so as to withdraw funds, promote production and reduce inventory. In short, in order to successfully "slim down" domestic new rapeseed before a large number of markets, local processing enterprises have started various attempts, among which price increase has become the main form.
Second, due to the rising price of imported rapeseed in Hong Kong this week, from 3900 yuan/ton on Monday to 4 150 yuan/ton on the weekend, the rising price of imported rapeseed has promoted the overall price adjustment of today's rapeseed market. The prices of other major oils such as soybean oil are also rising rapidly, which gives strong support to the price of rapeseed oil.
Third, the spot increase of rapeseed oil this week is also driven by the futures market. Domestic Zhengzhou rapeseed oil futures closed higher this week, which was mainly supported by higher ICE futures, higher Canadian rapeseed oil futures and stable commercial demand, and was boosted by Malaysian palm oil, CBOT electronic disk soybean comprehensive products and Matif rapeseed futures. At the same time, USDA soybean oil sales weekly report showed that soybean oil sales exceeded expectations, indicating that oil demand is still strong, supporting vegetable oil futures will remain strong.
This week, oil plants all over the country generally began to prepare for the large-scale listing of new rapeseed in China. The State Council has made it clear in the early stage that it will purchase and store rapeseed at a price higher than the market price in the future. Although the market supply and demand are empty, the transaction is cold and the market is depressed, the favorable policies of the state still provide strong support for the market and the confidence in the futures market is boosted. In addition, the macroeconomic situation has improved slightly, and the market expects that the recession situation in the United States and other economies around the world will gradually ease, which has stimulated investors' confidence to a certain extent and formed certain benefits for the agricultural product market. According to economic data released by the United States, consumer spending increased by 2.2% in the first quarter, and economic indicators such as consumer confidence index and manufacturing index rebounded in April. Although the data shows that the economy is still in recession, the pace of recession shows signs of slowing down. Under the global loose monetary policy environment, with the gradual improvement of macro-economy, the abundant liquidity of the market will be gradually released in the future. In addition, the upward trend line of the US dollar index has been broken, and it is currently in a weak pattern, which is conducive to the price of international bulk agricultural products denominated in US dollars, and the favorable international bulk commodities will also strongly promote the recovery of the domestic market.
At present, the main threat facing domestic rapeseed is the impact of imported rapeseed on the domestic market. The dumping of a large number of cheap imported rapeseed will certainly crowd out the already declining domestic rapeseed market. According to the Early Warning Notice on the Import of Soybean and Rapeseed issued by the Ministry of Commerce, the import of rapeseed exceeded 270,000 tons in April, up by 1.8 times year-on-year. In the first four months, the cumulative import was about 900,000 tons, an increase of nearly 1.2 times, a record high. Up to now, the company has reported that it shipped 6.5438+0.3 million tons of rapeseed in the current month, and it is expected that the import will remain relatively high in May. Due to the sharp rise and fall of domestic rapeseed market last year, domestic rapeseed processing enterprises generally suffered losses. According to statistics, in last year's plunge, Hubei oil plants lost as much as 95%, small and medium-sized oil plants generally lost 5 million yuan-10/00000 yuan, some large oil plants lost more than 50 million yuan, and 208 of the 220 rapeseed processing enterprises in China lost money, only 10 made a profit or guaranteed capital. The huge losses have made domestic rapeseed processing enterprises face unprecedented pressure this year, and the oil yield of imported rapeseed is higher than that of domestic rapeseed. Even at the same price, the cost-effective advantage of imported rapeseed is still outstanding. The difference in oil yield leads to a reasonable price difference of 400-500 yuan/ton between domestic rapeseed and imported rapeseed, which means that domestic rapeseed will have a certain competitive advantage when its price is about 400 yuan/ton lower than imported rapeseed. Anyone who knows about the soybean crisis in 2004 will be worried about the current situation of rape industry. In 2004, due to the soybean price rising first and then falling, and the lack of hedging experience, domestic crushing enterprises suffered serious losses, nearly 70% of enterprises stopped production and a large number of enterprises closed down. At the same time, enterprises concentrated on purchasing imported soybeans that year and lost the pricing power of soybeans. Nowadays, domestic soybeans are struggling under the pressure of imported soybeans. At present, as far as the domestic vegetable oil market is concerned, the impact of low-priced imported rapeseed will make the domestic oil price rise limited, or even lose the pricing power of rapeseed; In the medium and long term, the dependence of domestic rapeseed on foreign countries will increase, which is not conducive to the domestic rapeseed oil industry becoming bigger and stronger, and may even threaten the national grain and oil strategic security.
At present, although the impact of imported rapeseed is still large, due to the support of the State Reserve, it is expected that there will still be room for growth in the spot market of rapeseed oil in China in the short term, and the price of rapeseed oil will easily rise and fall in the short term.