Root cause 1: the multiplier effect of operating short board restricts the success rate of transaction
Generally speaking, there are four necessary steps in futures trading, namely, determining the trading direction, grasping the opening opportunity, executing stop loss (if there is reverse fluctuation) and closing the position. Any wrong move may lead to trading losses. The success rate of futures traders in a certain period of time should be the product of the success rate of each step. Assuming that the winning and losing amount of each transaction is equal, when the four-step success rate reaches 84. 1%, the transaction success rate barely stands on the breakeven line.
In fact, there are too few people who don't operate short boards. Are investors 100% confident of accurately predicting the market? Is there always a corresponding operation for each prediction? Is the stop loss set after opening a position always just right and effective? There will always be such mistakes in the operation. The short-board multiplier effect leads to the success rate of most futures traders below 50%, and the loss is natural.
It is said that people's heart beats faster when they are profitable than when they are losing money, and they will constantly breed the impulse to make profits. When they lose money, they will unconsciously look for reasons to continue to die. If investors encounter this situation, the above assumption of equal profit and loss is almost untenable in reality, and the probability of loss is much higher than that of profit.
Root cause 2: Numbers themselves have the defect of being easy to lose and difficult to gain.
On the premise that the profit-loss ratio and opportunity of each transaction of futures traders are equal, if the futures trader gains 10% first and then loses 10%, he will still lose1%; If you lose 10% first and then make a profit 10%, you will still lose 1%.
Obviously, under the premise of profit-loss ratio and equal opportunities, futures traders will still lose money, and the futures market is not a real zero-sum transaction, which will also generate certain transaction costs. In this way, profits will decrease and losses will increase, which will expand the proportion of losses to a certain extent and further deepen the degree of easy loss and difficult profit.
Root cause 3: Leveraged trading mechanism normalizes large profits and losses.
The futures market implements a margin system of about 10%, that is to say, if the capital account has 10 million, the total price can be about10 million at most, which is equivalent to amplifying the risk of10 times. If Man Cang operates, the profit and loss range will be 50% for every 5% price increase and decrease. Based on "the number itself has the defect that it is easy to decrease but difficult to increase", if it rises by 50% first and then falls by 50%, it will still fall by 25%; On the other hand, if you lose 50% first and then earn 50%, you still lose 25%. The profit and loss range under the leveraged trading mechanism is so large that even if investors gain 99 times, the loss of100th may make them fall.
Due to the compulsory liquidation system, when the margin is insufficient due to floating losses in the trading account, the number of contracts that investors can trade will be reduced once the liquidation is forced, if it is not made up by the deadline. In this case, even if the market price fluctuates in the same range in the direction of holding positions again, it is far from losing money.
Therefore, when futures traders operate in heavy positions, huge profits and losses become the norm, and it is more prone to the consequences of large losses.