Hello! China's stock market, like the economy, has made extremely rare achievements in extremely extraordinary years, ranking among the top gainers in the world. In the face of the world financial turmoil, especially the ups and downs in 2007 and 2008, it is not easy for the stock market to reverse the decline in one fell swoop and appear a calf. It also verifies the correctness and effectiveness of the central government's timely response to the direction and intensity of macroeconomic policy adjustment. It is foolish to predict the position of the stock market. This is probably what Buffett said. But it is precisely because accurate prediction is extremely difficult that it attracts many "good people". Recently, many famous experts have predicted the market trend and even the position of 20 10. Although the author is stupid, he does not take the liberty to put forward his own views for investors' reference only. It is expected that the Shanghai stock market will fluctuate in the box of 2600-3800 this year, which is generally a moderate bull market, and there may be many waves in the trend. There will be a wave of intermediate upswing at the beginning of the year, which will rise again after adjustment, and the band will fluctuate repeatedly up and down. In terms of macroeconomic policies, the Prime Minister has made it clear that the state's policies to stimulate the economy will not be withdrawn rashly, but will remain continuous. The policies and specific measures that have been taken will gradually show results, and the huge increase in investment and consumption will promote the economic benefits of enterprises to gradually pick up. The proactive fiscal policy will continue to be implemented, and the moderately loose monetary policy will also be maintained, but there will be fine-tuning. Investors should pay attention to the use of interest rate and deposit reserve leverage by the central bank, the follow-up measures to curb the excessive rise of housing prices, and the impact of the introduction of stock index futures and margin financing and securities lending measures on the operation mode of the stock market. Internationally, although the financial crisis may recur, the measures taken by governments to intervene in the economy will certainly play different roles. A bigger and deeper crisis will not happen in a short time, and the world economy will slowly pick up in difficulties. China's exports will further recover. Generally, the exchange rate will remain stable and the RMB will appreciate slightly and slowly. Changing the mode of economic growth, adjusting the structure, ensuring people's livelihood and promoting consumption will be the focus of domestic medium and long-term economic policies. Since the reform and opening up, social productive forces have increased rapidly and social wealth has increased rapidly. At the same time, some new problems have emerged, the most important of which is that economic development is not really based on high-end technology, and redundant construction and overcapacity have emerged, and the quality of economic growth needs to be further improved. In distribution, social wealth tends to tilt towards capital rather than labor; Social wealth tends to tilt towards the government rather than the people. Social wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few people, the social security system is not perfect, and the coverage and intensity are not enough; Housing, medical care and schooling are expensive, which leads to an increase in the cost of labor formation, and the income growth of ordinary workers cannot be followed up in proportion, which directly leads to the relative backwardness of social consumption, which further restricts the further development of the economy and determines the export-oriented and low-end nature of the economy. But it can be judged that inflation is not the main contradiction at present or even in the future. There are special and complicated reasons for the soaring housing prices, including financial system, real estate development and management system and credit support system. At the same time, the combination of power and capital, the greed of capital, artificial speculation and social transformation, the increase of demand and the shortage of supply are all pushing forces. As far as the stock market itself is concerned, it has made great achievements, which is beyond doubt. Last year, a major breakthrough was the launch of the Growth Enterprise Market, which had been brewing for many years. It not only opens up an important financing channel for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, especially private small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, it has also taken a decisive step for the construction and improvement of the multi-level capital market system. But overall, China's capital market is still in the process of gradual improvement and development. The author thinks that the biggest deficiency is that he does not act according to the law of value well. For example, the launch and market performance of warrants are the most typical interpretation. Basically, the end trend of each warrant is like the winter skiing in the Alps-the doomsday wheel falls rapidly. The reform of the new share issuance system is not thorough, which leads to the inquiry issuance still not getting rid of the strange circle of price increase issuance. The secondary market has become a place where interests can be realized, and many retail investors have become the source of interest output. This is not only not conducive to the harmonious and long-term development of the stock market itself, but also has a negative impact on the real economy. The law of value is the law of all commodity economies and cannot be violated; If you violate it, you will have to pay tuition fees and be punished, but now the board has hit the small and medium-sized investors on the ass. In short, since the second half of the year before last, the CPC Central Committee has sized up the situation, changed macroeconomic policies in a timely manner, responded effectively in a timely manner, and turned the tide, and the achievements have really not come easily. We have a clear understanding and grasp of the basic characteristics, existing problems, roads, policies and measures for further development of China economy, which shows that we have the ability to control economic and social development under the guidance of Scientific Outlook on Development. We have every reason to believe that, like China's economy, the stock market will have a better future.

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