The trading time of plastics in Guolian futures is the trading time of commodity futures. There is no night trading in plastics now, that is, the primary transaction fee for trading plastic futures during the day is 2. 1 yuan, and there is no extra charge for this day.
In September, 2020, during the peak demand season for plastics, the decrease in imports caused a shortage of plastics (8989, -7.00, -0.08%) in the market. The phased positive will promote the strong operation of ll.
First, the supply gap is difficult to make up quickly.
In September, the lost output of PE maintenance in China is estimated to be 4 1.300 tons, which is 33,500 tons less than that in August. The new plant capacity of Bora Petrochemical is put into production, and Zhongke Refining and Chemical Company and Sinochem Quanzhou Plant are planned to put into production. It is expected that the domestic plastic output will increase further in September, but the proportion of standard products will fall below 30%.
In July, the PE import volume of China was1666,400 tons. Among them, the import volume of low-density polyethylene was 286,000 tons, down by 10.03% month-on-month and 5.68% year-on-year. The import dependence of high-pressure variety (LDPE) is as high as 56.4%, and the import of Iranian goods accounts for 2 1.9%. However, since June, the United States has imposed sanctions on Iranian Air China and its Shanghai-based Yihang Shipping Co., Ltd., resulting in the inability of high-pressure goods to dock in Hong Kong, making it difficult to quickly make up for the supply gap.
Since the overhaul, Shenhua has been in short supply, and now it has switched to production for 2420H h, and the northeast downstream has entered the peak season, and PetroChina has also reduced its deployment to various regions. Therefore, the shortage of goods in Iran and the overhaul of domestic high-voltage devices have jointly caused the tension of LDPE. At present, the mainstream quotation of foreign investors is about1150-1180 USD/ton (equivalent to RMB 9600-9800/ton), which has formed a strong support for the plastic spot market.
Second, the epidemic situation stimulated the recovery of membrane consumption.
In the third quarter, downstream demand will follow. Affected by the epidemic, the demand for food, drug packaging and epidemic prevention materials increased, and the consumption of high-pressure films and coatings increased. From June to July, 2020, the national plastic products manufacturers realized a total profit of 58.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.438+04.6%.
The operating rate of the downstream agricultural film industry was 35.6%, up 4.2% from the previous week. The operating rate of the pipeline industry was 52%, up 1% from the previous week. The operating rate of packaging film industry was 63.7%, down 0.7% from the previous week. The peak season of traditional agricultural film is August-165438+1October, and the production and sales season of shed film is from September-65438+1October. At present, the operating rate of large-scale solar films has risen to 70%, reaching the peak season load level; The operating rate of functional membranes has risen to 30% and is steadily increasing. At the same time, the shed film and packaging film entered the stocking stage, and most of the packaging films were started at 60-80%; About 30%-70% of greenhouse membrane factories started construction, and small and medium-sized enterprises started construction one after another. Therefore, the epidemic prevention and control has entered the conventional stage, which has led to an increase in membrane consumption and release. Under the support of agricultural film in the fourth quarter, consumption is expected to pick up.
Third, there is no obvious pressure to open positions in the market outlook.
By the beginning of September, the inventory of the two oils was 660,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous week. At present, the PE inventory of domestic polyethylene enterprises (petroleum+coal) has decreased in a narrow range, with a decrease of 1.99% from the previous month. Among them, LDPE inventory decreased by 9.87% compared with last week; HDPE inventory decreased by 3.51%month-on-month; LLDPE inventory increased by 3. 13% month on month. Overall, the inventory of polyolefin industry is at a low level: the inventory of upstream petrochemical industry is even lower than that of the same period last year, and the inventory of coal chemical industry is also declining. Although the port plastic inventory tends to accumulate, the absolute quantity is still below the median level, and there is no obvious pressure.
Four. Summary and prospect
Dominant low inventory+start of stocking season+non-standard substitution pull constitute three major advantages of plastic market. After the import window was opened in August, the import increment was smaller than that in the previous period. Recently, nearly 30% of LLDPE production capacity in the United States was temporarily stopped due to the hurricane, and the performance of LDPE continued to be strong, driving LLDPE to rise simultaneously. Under the main tone of internal circular economy, the three hard plastics PP, PE and PVC(8985, -27.00, -0.30%) are still multi-fund allocation.