2009- 1 1-30
165438+1On October 28th, at the seminar on "Investment Opportunities in Steel Industry and Steel Futures" held in Shanghai Futures Exchange Building, the experts, scholars and steel traders attending the seminar had extensive and in-depth exchanges on the development trends of China's macro-economy, steel industry and steel market in 20 10. They believe that the macro-economy will continue to improve next year, the demand for steel products will remain strong, and the overall steel market will be better than that in 2009.
Li Xinchuang, senior leader of Shanghai Futures Exchange and president of China Metallurgical Planning Institute, and Wei Bing, general manager of steel division of Shen Yin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd. made special reports.
20 10 the macro economy continues to improve.
Zhenhua He, senior macro analyst of Shen Yin Wanguo Securities Research Institute, delivered a speech entitled "Reasons for optimism". He analyzed and predicted the "optimistic reasons" for the domestic macroeconomic situation to continue to improve next year from the unique perspectives of the driving force of economic cycle evolution, cost and interest rate, balance sheet and capital circulation channels. He said that from the current situation, the international environment that may be faced in the next six months to one year is: low interest rate+low dollar exchange rate+low commodity prices. In the case of stable interest rates and commodities, the profitability and investment willingness of enterprises are still strong. Once this trend is confirmed, the improvement of demand will be even stronger.
Zhenhua He believes that in China, the dominant position of real estate and its impact on the economy are more significant than those in developed countries. Therefore, we must have a deeper understanding of real estate. We have seen some changes: including the rise of the price system, the rise of interest rates, the subtle changes in the asset-liability ratio, and the subtle changes in government policies. These changes show that the macro-economy has improved, and this trend can be sustained.
Some insiders predict the macroeconomic trend of China in 20 10, and think that the economic and social development of China is still in a critical period of stabilization and recovery. It is predicted that the growth rate of fixed assets investment in 20 10 will not be lower than that in 2009, and there may be a strong recovery scenario with GDP growth of more than 9%.
The introduction of steel futures has affected the change of spot price.
The senior leaders and experts of Shanghai Futures Exchange analyzed the development of steel futures since it was listed and traded this year.
Since the listing of rebar and wire futures on March 27th, the market has been generally stable, trading has become increasingly active, and market functions have gradually emerged. So far, the total turnover of rebar has reached 1 1 trillion yuan. At present, the average daily turnover of steel futures has accounted for 40% of the average daily turnover of the previous period, making it the fastest growing futures product in China.
Some experts believe that the introduction of steel futures is a historic event to change the pattern of the steel industry; The price of steel futures reflects the change of spot price in advance; The enlargement of steel futures trading has increased the influence of futures prices.
Since the listing of steel futures, the linkage between futures and spot prices is obvious, and the price difference between them is within a reasonable range. Some steel production, trade and consumption enterprises pay more attention to steel futures, and some enterprises initially participate in hedging transactions, and achieved good results. At present, iron and steel enterprises and traders have taken the futures price as the reference price of the agreement. Driven by the spot price of steel futures, the price impact began to appear. In fact, many entities have begun to pay attention to and actively participate in steel futures trading, and the investor structure of the market is gradually improving.
Wei Bing, general manager of the steel division of Shen Yin Wanguo Futures Co., Ltd., used many examples to illustrate the function of the futures market in his report "Hedging Arbitrage and Function of Steel Futures" to avoid the risk of price fluctuation through the futures market. He believes that although steel futures have not been listed for a long time, there are many investment opportunities for steel futures. Whether it is speculation, arbitrage, hedging, physical delivery, warehouse receipt pledge and other investment schemes, it can give investors a reliable and stable return on investment every time.
Some insiders believe that the influence of capital and other factors on steel prices is relatively limited, and the rise and fall of steel prices is ultimately determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand. Since the listing of steel futures, it has interacted with spot prices and electronic disk prices, and * * * has commanded the rise and fall of the steel market. Therefore, the joint development of spot price, electronic disk and futures market may become the main direction of China steel trading market in the future.
Overcapacity will be a normal state and needs to be fully understood.
Li Xinchuang, president of China Metallurgical Planning Institute, pointed out in the special report "Accelerating structural adjustment and promoting the healthy development of steel industry" that overcapacity is a normal state and there is no need to make a fuss. Production capacity is future-oriented, not static, but dynamic. Now some media use simple algorithms. The steel production capacity is more than 600 million tons, the actual demand is less than 500 million tons, and the surplus is more than 654.38 billion tons. This simple addition and subtraction method looks at steel. Now some countries engage in trade protectionism. By this simple addition and subtraction, it is said that China's steel production capacity is more than 65,438+billion tons, and the surplus steel is sold abroad. In this regard, it is believed that China is dumping and frequently conducts anti-dumping investigations on steel products exported from China. This is unreasonable, unreasonable.
Li Xinchuang said that it is necessary to fully understand the connotation of production capacity and distinguish between advanced production capacity, general production capacity and backward production capacity. There should be a standard for backward production capacity, such as the capacity that pollutes the environment and wastes resources. This backward production capacity should be eliminated. At present, the layout of China's iron and steel enterprises is unreasonable. For example, Hebei's steel output reaches1.60 billion tons, while the local steel demand only accounts for 1.3% of the total steel consumption in China. It is predicted that the output of crude steel in China will reach 600 million tons in 20 10, and there will be a great demand for steel in 20 10. State investment has boosted steel demand, with an investment of 4 trillion yuan and another 2 trillion yuan next year. Some projects started this year will continue to be invested next year. Increasing the investment scale of 1 trillion means consuming 25 million tons of steel. The domestic economic situation will continue to improve next year, and the demand for steel will remain strong. The steel industry is shifting to emerging countries, among which China is the world's steel consumption center, because our output has already occupied an absolute advantage, and our consumption is also in China, and this trend will remain for a long time.
Talking about the development direction of the steel industry, Li Xinchuang believes that China's integration into the world economy will be further accelerated. We must have a global vision, give full play to the market mechanism and the necessary macro-control role, and promote the sustained and healthy development of China iron and steel industry with the concept of sustainable development. Accelerate the strategic construction of overseas resources and ensure the stability of raw material bases. Resolutely stop the tendency of blindly expanding production scale regardless of construction conditions and market demand. Adjust the product structure and industrial structure to make the steel industry layout more reasonable. Speeding up the development of steel circular economy and realizing the sustainable development of steel industry.
20 10 domestic steel market features: high output, high inventory and low price.
"High output, high inventory and low price" are the basic characteristics of 20 10 domestic steel market. 20 10 the pattern of China's economy driven by investment growth will not change. According to the consumption of crude steel invested by one billion yuan of GDP and one billion yuan of fixed assets in recent years, combined with the development of downstream industries, it is estimated that the demand for crude steel in China will be 580-600 million tons in 20 10, an increase of 65438- 12% over this year, and the apparent consumption of crude steel in 2009. Regardless of the change of inventory, if the output of crude steel in China is controlled at 620-620 million tons in 20 10, the relationship between supply and demand in the domestic market can basically be balanced. However, if domestic steel mills do not reduce production at present, the apparent consumption of crude steel in China will reach 570 million tons in 2009, and the supply exceeds demand by about 25 million tons, which will adversely affect the supply and demand situation in the domestic market in 20 10.
Why is "high output, high inventory and low price" the basic feature of 20 10 domestic steel market?
First, steel enterprises will not take the initiative to reduce production. Comparing the current domestic market prices of raw materials and steel with those at the time of the financial crisis, it can be seen that domestic steel mills do not yet have the conditions to reduce production in a large area. In addition, key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises have certain advantages in raw material procurement, while small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises still have comprehensive cost advantages. Before the backward production capacity is eliminated, all kinds of iron and steel enterprises will not take the initiative to reduce production easily, and the domestic market of 20 10 will still maintain a high output trend.
Second, the reasonable social turnover inventory has risen. Domestic capital supply is abundant, and the overall level of steel market price is low, which provides conditions for increasing inventory; The scale of financing, guarantee or bank pledge with steel is increasing, and some steel stocks are locked; With the increasing number of participants in steel futures and electronic trading, the number of steel stocks locked for delivery will further increase; These are the basis for the formation of high inventory in the domestic steel market.
Thirdly, the situation of steel overcapacity in 20 10 China has not been fundamentally reversed, and the steel market price is an important factor to determine the release of production capacity. Steel mills will not cut production easily, and the pressure of resource supply in the domestic market will continue, which determines that the balance between supply and demand in the 20 10 domestic steel market can only be adjusted by market prices. Low price, that is, close to the average cost of the industry, will become one of the important characteristics of the price movement trend of domestic steel market in 20 10.
It is expected that there will be an upward trend around May next year, and the whole year is better than 2009.
The insiders believe that the rebound of steel prices in the domestic steel market in mid-June of 5438+ 10 is mainly the result of three reasons. First, after the domestic steel market price fell for two consecutive months, the terminal demand began to be released and the inventory began to replenish the stock; Second, the domestic steel market price is close to the bottom of the previous period, and with abundant social funds, circulation enterprises dare to hoard inventory and need to increase; Third, the depreciation of the dollar and the rise in commodity prices have strengthened market inflation expectations. Due to this wave of price rebound, the bottom of the steel market price formed in mid-April was initially confirmed.
In the first 20 days of June 5438+ 10 this year, the crude steel output of iron and steel enterprises continued to maintain a high level. This was achieved in June 10 and June 1 1 during the centralized overhaul of the steel plant. When the centralized maintenance of steel mills is completed, the output of crude steel may increase further.
At present, international output has recovered rapidly. Except China, the average daily output of crude steel in the world shows a V-shaped recovery, which is obviously stronger than the trend of economic stabilization and recovery. In addition, China's steel market price has fallen, low-priced exports have been hit, and the international steel market price has fluctuated greatly recently, making it difficult for China's steel exports to continue to grow. In September, China's steel imports increased almost synchronously, and the impact of increased exports was offset. In the short term, it is difficult for the domestic market to balance the supply of resources in the domestic market through exports.
At the end of this year and early next year, the domestic market will continue to maintain an abundant supply of funds. First, the fourth quarter is a period of centralized financial payment. According to this year's budget, the fiscal expenditure in the fourth quarter can reach 3 1 trillion yuan, much higher than the fiscal expenditure level of10.6 trillion yuan in the second and third quarters of this year; Second, the first half of the year is the peak season for financial institutions to lend, especially in the first quarter, and the supply of funds in the domestic market will not be tightened in the first quarter of next year; Third, China's rapid economic growth will continue to attract international capital inflows.
Judging from the main economic indicators and the development of downstream industries, domestic crude steel consumption in the third quarter of this year was basically the same as that in the second quarter, and domestic steel demand in the current period has entered a period of steady growth. The end of this year and the first quarter of next year are the off-season of domestic market consumption, and it is unlikely that the domestic steel market demand will suddenly increase. Considering that the pressure of oversupply in the domestic market this year is not equal to half a month's crude steel output, it is expected that the capital turnover of steel circulation enterprises will begin to appear after the 20 10 Spring Festival.
Recently, the domestic steel market price will generally fluctuate. In the first half of 20 10, the domestic steel market will mainly digest inventory and oscillate. It is expected that there will be a round of rising market around May, which is better than that in 2009. Bowen (from: Internet, for reference only)