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Futures arbitrage story
The hedging answer given by the above team is wrong. He is talking about arbitrage, not hedging. First of all, hedging involves the most important concept, that is, basis, that is, spot-futures = basis. Whether hedging can be completely protected or whether the result of hedging has a net profit or a net loss depends on this basis. As you said, I have two simple examples below. You can see that the principle of hedging is the same. First, long hedging, such as: February 1, the spot price of aluminum per ton 15600 yuan. In order to avoid future price increase, we can buy the June futures contract at the price of 15400 per ton, where the basis is 200 yuan/ton. By May, the spot price will rise to 15800. The basis is 100 yuan, because this is a buy hedge, so if the basis weakens, there will be a net profit of 100 yuan per ton. Of course, if the basis is still 200 in May, then the hedging will be unprofitable, completely offsetting the risk. If the basis is greater than 200 yuan, there will be a net loss. (Explain that a little hedging can't completely offset the risk, just control the risk within a certain range, which you must make clear. Second, short hedges are afraid of falling prices, so they sell a sum in advance in the futures market and hedge each other at maturity, just like long positions, but selling hedges requires a strong foundation to have a net profit. If you don't understand anything, please come back for consultation.