(A) the relationship between supply and demand of sugar spot market.
Supply and demand factors generally speaking, for supply, the increase of commodity supply will cause the price to drop, and the decrease of supply will cause the price to rise; As far as demand is concerned, an increase in commodity demand will lead to an increase in prices, while a decrease in demand will lead to a decrease in prices. The supply and demand of sugar also follow the same law.
As far as China is concerned, national purchasing and storage, industrial temporary purchasing and storage and sugar merchants' turnover inventory have formed an inventory that can affect the market sugar price nationwide. When the sugar price is too high (too low), the state adjusts the market sugar price by selling (storing) the sugar stored by the state. It is of great significance to estimate the inventory of the current year and the following year and the state's purchasing, storage and sales of sugar for correctly estimating the price of sugar.
(2) Climate and weather.
Sugar, as an agricultural and sideline product, both spot price and futures price will be affected by climate and weather factors. Sugarcane has the characteristics of high temperature and strong light, high water demand and high fertilizer absorption in growing period, and it has special dependence on light, heat and water conditions that constitute climate resources. Drought, flood, strong wind, hail, low temperature frost and other weather have disastrous effects on the growth period of sugarcane, which will be long-term once formed.
(3) seasonal.
Sugar is a commodity that is produced seasonally and sold annually, and its sales have its inherent laws. In China, the time of concentrated squeezing of sugarcane is from 10 to April of the following year. Due to the centralized listing of white sugar, the supply of white sugar is very sufficient in the short term. With the passage of time and continuous consumption, the inventory of white sugar is getting less and less. And the price often changes with it, which has seasonal characteristics.
(4) Policy factors.
Relevant policies of international sugar organizations, subsidies to sugar producers in EU countries and production support policies of the US government all have an important impact on the world sugar supply. The sugar import and export policies and tariff policies of various countries are also factors that cannot be ignored. For example, the United States implements a quota system for sugar management, and imports sugar from designated countries according to quotas. The import price is generally higher than the international market price.
The United States does not export raw sugar, but a large number of edible syrups extracted from raw sugar are exported. Therefore, if sugar-producing countries export to the United States, they must first obtain the import quota of the United States. Brazil, Cuba and CIS control sugar production in a planned way by controlling planting area. The governments of India, the Philippines and Thailand control the export quantity according to the domestic market situation and adjust relevant policies at any time. Due to the government's intervention, sugar prices at home and abroad have a certain linkage and often deviate.
China has fully liberalized the sugar market, but sugar has always been one of the important commodities of national macro-management. The state adopts the following measures to carry out macro-control: first, the government of the producing area links the purchase price of sugarcane with the sales price of sugar; The second is to establish sugar reserves at the central and local levels; The third is to introduce sugar guidance price and self-discipline price; Fourth, sugar imports are arranged by the National Development and Reform Commission. At present, the main government departments and organizations related to sugar industry management are: National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Agriculture and China Sugar Industry Association.
(5) Other factors.
1, sugar substitution, holidays, international and domestic political and economic situation, economic cycle, and some unexpected events such as avian flu and SARS will have a certain impact on the market price; Changes in interest rates, exchange rates, inflation rates, consumption habits, transportation costs and difficulties will also have a certain impact on sugar prices; Changes in market speculative forces and psychological factors often affect the trend of sugar prices.
2. Fluctuation frequency of sugar futures. If the variety of white sugar is not a very volatile variety from the closing price point of view, it is called demon sugar because of its violent intraday fluctuation frequency, and the fluctuation on the daily line may be less than 1%. However, in a day, you can often get out of an interval of ups and downs.
3. Precautions when trading: Trend traders follow the concept of value investment. Hedging arbitrage. Speculative trading should try to keep the mentality of short-term trading. When the trend is uncertain, try to keep as few overnight positions as possible. We should also pay attention to the changes in the national policies to protect agriculture, rural areas and farmers, such as purchasing and storing, and guiding the purchase price of sugar cane.