Last Friday, crude oil went up to $765,438 +0.20, and the lowest went down to $70.95+69.60, up 89 cents from the previous trading day, with a daily increase of 1.27%. The daily K-line is in the shape of a small sunny line, with a long shadow line, which bounces after oversold. Singapore Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew said on Saturday that due to the political turmoil in the Middle East, the international oil price is expected to exceed 120 USD/barrel. Lee Kuan Yew made the above remarks in an interview with The Straits Times. He said that Iran's tough attitude on the nuclear issue may lead to sanctions from the international community, and the war between Israel and Lebanon may still be rekindled, which will push up oil prices and may cause a global economic recession.
Hezbollah TV reported in August 19 that an Israeli commando team parachuted into the vicinity of Baalbek in eastern Lebanon that morning and had a fierce battle with Hezbollah guerrillas. According to the Associated Press, Israeli commandos did raid the village of Budai, west of Baalbek in eastern Lebanon, by helicopter, when intensive Israeli warplanes flew by. The Israeli attack was clearly aimed at a Hizbullah target in a school. In an interview with the Voice of Lebanon Radio, officials in the Bekaa Valley also said that Israeli airborne commandos also used two vehicles, and they evacuated with them after fierce fighting. This is the first time since the UN cease-fire resolution came into effect in August 14 that Israel broke the calm and launched a military operation of this scale. The Israeli Defense Ministry confirmed that the army had attacked Lebanon. The Israeli military said that the attack on Lebanon was aimed at preventing Syria and Iran from sending troops to Lebanon.
The wife of Palestinian Deputy Prime Minister Nasser Zaher told the outside world on August 19 that her husband had been arrested by the Israeli army. The arrest of Nasser Chaher should be the latest step in Israeli opposition to Hamas's rule. At present, four members and 28 members of the Palestinian Hamas Cabinet have been detained by Israel, and four other ministers have been detained but released.
A state-owned Iranian television station reported that Iran test-fired a short-range surface-to-surface missile on Sunday after a large-scale military exercise. According to reports, the missile named Saegheh has a range of 80-250 kilometers. According to the British Guardian, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that British Prime Minister Tony Blair had caused lasting damage to Britain's reputation, and called on British voters to oust Tony Blair to prevent Britain from being dragged into a new round of foreign policy disaster in the Middle East. Ahmadinejad said that Britain's reputation in the Muslim world is "lasting" because Britain failed to promote an early ceasefire in the Israeli-Lebanese conflict and British troops occupied Iraq and Afghanistan. Ahmadinejad also said that the failure of the UN Security Council to take early action in the Israeli-Lebanese conflict has damaged its credibility in dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue. The diplomatic efforts of the United Nations Security Council aimed at resolving the Iranian nuclear crisis entered a critical moment this week. United Nations Security Council resolution 1696 on the Iranian nuclear issue will expire on August 3 1, and Iranian officials have indicated that they will give a formal reply to the six-nation plan before August 22.
Nicholas Burns, US Deputy Secretary of State for Political Affairs, said at the press conference on June 7 17 that if Iran does not comply with the resolution adopted by the UN Security Council requiring it to suspend all uranium enrichment activities before the end of this month, then the United States will seek to impose sanctions on Iran through the UN Security Council. Earlier, Ahmadinejad publicly rejected the resolution. The Iranian side said that sanctions will not have an impact on the country's nuclear program. Iran is expected to give a formal reply to the six-nation plan on Monday or Tuesday.
In early August, the consumer confidence index in Michigan, USA, dropped by 6 points to 78.7, which was lower than expected and the lowest since 10 months. The current situation index decreased by 2.2 points from the final value in July to 100.8, but it was the same as the value in early July. The expected index dropped by 8 points to 64.5, the lowest since 2005 10, and the biggest monthly decline since September 2005. In the future 1 year, inflation is expected to rise 1. 1 to 4.9%, compared with 3.2% in July. However, the expected value in September last year and 10 was as high as 5.5%, and the inflation expectation in the next five years rose to 3.5%, but it was as high as 3.8% in May. The personal financial situation expectation index fell 9 points to a three-month low of 1 13. After the University of Michigan's weak consumer confidence index was released, the probability of raising interest rates appeared in September, and US interest rate futures fell briefly.
Last week, the core PPI and CPI data of the United States showed that inflation in the United States slowed down and consumer confidence deteriorated, which damaged the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates again this year. Last week, the dollar fell against the euro and the yen. The impact of CPI continues, so the market is mostly bearish on the US dollar. This week's forecast of American economic indicators also shows signs of slowing growth, which may further negative the dollar. Important data of US dollar this week include US new house sales in July, US durable consumer goods orders in July, crude oil inventory data, and US red book retail sales last week. The indicators that need attention include June euro zone trade account, June euro zone industrial orders, Germany's second quarter GDP forecast, Germany's IFO business situation data in August, Japan's trade data in July, and July CPI data. Considering the poor inflation data in the United States last week, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates was greatly frustrated, and it seems that it is difficult to completely reverse the short position of the dollar.
Last week, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar hit its biggest one-day increase and decrease since the revaluation in July 2005. Last Friday night, the Bank of China suddenly announced that it would raise the deposit and loan interest rates of financial institutions by 27 basis points. The Bank of China raised interest rates, which provided the basis for RMB appreciation. In addition, the trend of RMB against the US dollar has always followed the trend of Japanese yen against the US dollar. It is expected that there is a great possibility that the RMB will rise sharply this week. Bank of China, the second largest commercial bank in China, will convert 20 billion US dollars into RMB to reduce its foreign exchange position. The Governor of Bank of China said that Bank of China currently holds USD 39 billion worth of non-hedged USD assets, and plans to convert USD 654.38+0.5-20 billion into RMB to reduce the risks caused by exchange rate changes.
Last week, the easing of tension and inflation concerns in the Middle East reduced the market demand for gold as an investment haven and a hedge against inflation, which led to a sharp drop in gold prices last week. Since the beginning of this year, the trend of gold price has fluctuated extremely, partly influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns about the US economy. With the arrival of the deadline for Iran to respond to the UN Security Council, the Iranian nuclear issue may intensify again; The North Korean nuclear issue also emerged at this time, and these factors will bring support to the gold price market. With the emergence of technical rebound after crude oil oversold, the price of gold is bound to follow a new round of rebound. The factors affecting the rebound of crude oil and gold prices have gradually shifted to the Middle East issue, and the Iranian nuclear issue may trigger a rapid market. Short-term operation strategy should seize every opportunity to absorb.