On March 30th, the People's Bank of China announced that in order to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 50 billion yuan by way of interest rate bidding, and the winning interest rate was 2.20%. This is also a month later, the central bank restarted the open market operation again. This interest rate is directly lowered by 20BP compared with the last bid-winning rate, which is also the largest reduction in the bid-winning rate in the open market operation in recent years. Previously, it was lowered by 10BP.
A number of financial industry analysts told the 2 1 Century Business Herald that the interest rate cut was to implement the requirement of the Politburo meeting on March 27th to "guide the downward interest rate in the loan market". From the past historical records, the interest rate adjustment was mostly synchronous, that is to say, the interest rates of MLF and LPR will also be lowered simultaneously in the future, and it is expected that the one-year LPR may be lowered by 20BP to 3.85%.
On March 30th, with the coming of the end of the season, the price of funds in the interbank market rose slightly, and the symbolic weighted interest rate of DR007 was 2. 1049%, which was slightly higher than that of the previous trading day. Overnight, one week, two weeks and other short-term Shibor rose slightly, and within one week Shibor rose by 39.40BP to 2. 1630%.
The liquidity in the interbank market is still loose.
"After the Spring Festival, the liquidity of the inter-bank capital market has been very abundant. In mid-March, the capital price remained around 1 for many times, and it was as low as 0.7% on March 20th, and the interest rate of DR007 was as low as 0.79%, which was far lower than the operating rate of the central bank in the open market. This is the first time I have seen it in 10 years. " A fund trader of a stock bank in Guangdong told 2 1 Century Business Herald, "Because of the end of the season, the interest rate rose a little today, but it is still very low. The price of DR00 1 is about 1.3%, and DR007 is about 2%. "
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, believes that since the targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio in March, the money market has been abundant in liquidity, and the interest rate in the money market has dropped significantly, which is obviously different from the interest rate of the central bank's liquidity instruments. Since the beginning of this year, DR007 has dropped from more than 2.6% to about 1.5% recently, while the 7-day and 14-day reverse repo rates are still 2.4%. It is expected that in order to realize the overall downward shift of the whole market yield curve, the 14-day open market operating interest rate will also be lowered in due course, and the central bank's greater policy adjustment will still be introduced according to the actual domestic situation.
On the other hand, the current interbank market is well funded. During the epidemic, major banks have strengthened their support for the real economy. The central bank also launched 300 billion yuan of special refinancing and 400 billion yuan of refinancing to support agriculture and support small enterprises. A number of small and micro enterprise practitioners also told 2 1 Century Business Herald that they could feel that the preferential loan interest rate policy was being gradually implemented and the transmission had begun.
A person in charge of a wool textile enterprise in Shandong told 2 1 Century Business Herald that the loans of the enterprise are mortgage loans for factories and land, and there is no credit loan. I have been contacting the bank since February to see if I can reduce the loan interest or increase the loan amount, but I have not received a reply.
"For the loan that has been obtained, the bank replied that it does not belong to the epidemic area, so the interest rate cannot be lowered, but the interest rate of the newly applied loan can be discounted, but because the enterprise itself has loans, it will not raise the credit line too high." The person in charge of the enterprise said, "Last time, the local bank gave 3 million yuan of credit loan support, and the interest rate was about 5.3%. Although the amount is not high, the interest rate is a little lower. "
A person in charge of a small and micro enterprise in Beijing told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald that since the enterprise is a high-tech enterprise, in February and March, it also received calls from a number of banks asking whether loans were needed. However, although the bank's inquiry is very enthusiastic, the amount of credit loans actually available is not high.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the central bank stepped up counter-cyclical adjustment.
After the lockout in June 5438+ 10, the homestay in February and the resumption of work in March, the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the economy continued. In China, although the epidemic situation has been controlled, residents still have scruples about going out to spend money. Entertainment, hotels, restaurants, tourism and other service industries have not recovered, and so has the real estate industry. In foreign countries, the epidemic is rampant and the overseas economy is greatly affected. This has also led to the problem that although domestic export enterprises have resumed work and production, they are faced with the cancellation of orders and the increase of inventory.
"We are also investigating and found that the cash flow of most enterprises is still tight, especially service enterprises and non-medical supplies export enterprises. At present, many small and micro enterprises come to consult loans every day. The Bank has launched its business in inclusive finance, and the offline adjustment has also started. However, at present, for enterprises that already belong to overcapacity industries, we are still relatively cautious when doing our best. " The president of the Pearl River Delta branch of a state-owned bank said, "Because there are many small and medium-sized private enterprises in the region, 70% of corporate loans issued by branches in previous years were private enterprises, but with the start of new infrastructure, it is expected that the proportion of large-scale corporate loans of our branches will increase this year."
Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said that in the next stage, macro-policies will continue to intensify countercyclical adjustment to hedge the impact of the epidemic on the economy. Reducing the financing cost of the real economy is the core of monetary policy, and it is still necessary to cut interest rates and reduce RRR to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. However, it should also be noted that at present, the cost of bank liabilities remains high, and the spread of pressure drop is limited. The deposits of enterprises and residential departments account for more than 60% of the total liabilities of banks. Lowering the benchmark deposit interest rate in a timely and appropriate manner will have a more significant effect on the downward trend of LPR. According to published data, with the gradual decline of inflation level in China, the first half of April will be an appropriate window to lower the benchmark deposit interest rate.
In addition, in the face of the unexpected impact of the epidemic, many economic analysts also suggested increasing the intensity of fiscal policy. At the meeting held in the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee on March 27th, they also proposed to implement a proactive fiscal policy. In terms of fiscal expenditure, deficit ratio will be appropriately raised, special government bonds will be issued, and the scale of special local government bonds will be increased.
Xie, the team of China Merchants Securities, released a report saying that in order to cope with novel coronavirus's all-round impact on the domestic and foreign demand of the economy, it is estimated that the deficit ratio of the public finance account may be raised to 3.5%. Measured by two methods, the actual deficit ratio will continue the upward trend in recent years, reaching about 5.0% (the previous value is 4.9%), which means that the new generalized government debt will reach more than 5 trillion yuan in 2020, and the leverage ratio of the generalized government will increase by 4.4 percentage points every year from 20 18 to 20 19 under the BIS caliber.