The good times didn't last long. A few days ago, wheat and corn just rose hand in hand, and in a blink of an eye, they faced a hand-in-hand decline.

In fact, ups and downs are normal phenomena. No ups and downs, no ups and downs. We are more concerned about the long-term trend, or how long will this round of decline last? When can I return to the ascending channel again?

1. Why did the price of new wheat fall back?

In fact, the market has both expectations and some surprises about the decline in the price of new wheat.

Predictably, it is because when the grain is harvested, the quantity is concentrated, and the supply increases in a short time, and the price will inevitably fall. This is also the law; Surprisingly, the market's expectations for wheat this year are not high.

Originally, the expected price drop in the market should appear at the peak of wheat market, but it has obviously not arrived yet. How to reduce the price?

In fact, this is not difficult to understand. In the current situation at home and abroad, it is inevitable that the mentality and emotions will be impatient.

At present, the wheat in Henan, the largest wheat province in China, has started to be listed sporadically, and it is expected that the whole province of Henan will enter a large-scale wheat harvest activity in a week or so.

Judging from the current price of new wheat in Henan, it is generally concentrated between 1.45- 1.55 yuan/kg, which is far lower than the previous trend of 1.6 yuan even approaches 1.7 yuan/kg.

Coupled with the large-scale listing, the price may fall again, which makes the market sentiment begin to change.

As a result, with the increasing amount of new wheat on the market and the upcoming large-scale wheat harvest, the purchase prices of major flour enterprises have also been adjusted back.

2. Corn: Shandong and Northeast China fell together.

Compared with the decline of wheat, the decline of corn is a bit fierce.

First of all, the amount of corn from Shandong to trucks has increased greatly, so Shandong, which has always been "watching the car and cooking", has begun to cut prices again; On the other hand, the northeast has also experienced a mixed situation since May 22, and the purchase price of grain storage and storage has also declined on May 23.

In the past, the trend of corn was that Shandong corn rose more and fell less, Northeast corn remained firm, and Shandong and Northeast corn fell less.

However, the reason for this round of decline is relatively intuitive. On the one hand, when the new wheat goes on the market, the demand for selling grain in Dongku will not decrease. Therefore, as the amount of corn increases, the price will naturally go down; On the other hand, the resumption of directional rice auction also has a certain impact on the market, so there is a shock.

Moreover, as we said before, during the listing of new wheat, there was no big trend of corn, so shock adjustment was the main theme.

3. How long will it fall and when will it rise again?

For the falling time of wheat and corn, the expected time will not be too long by comprehensive factors.

First of all, although there is a risk of centralized listing of wheat, we should also see that the number of buyers in the wheat market has increased a lot this year. This is a relatively obvious signal that the market has greatly increased the collection of wheat. As the saying goes, a popular market is a dynamic market.

On the other hand, you can see the price trend of old wheat this year. The planting cost this year has increased compared with last year, so farmers have higher expectations for new wheat and are unwilling to sell it.

Therefore, it is expected that wheat will continue to "go higher" after "high opening" and a short shock.

Secondly, as we said, the strength of corn is not at present, but still behind.

At present, it is the home of wheat, and the home of corn will really start after the trend of wheat is roughly opened.

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