First, the economies of most regions and countries in the world recovered strongly, and the economic performance was generally better than that of the previous year, which made the world economy at a cyclical high.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important comprehensive index to measure the economic performance of countries all over the world. According to the predictions and analysis of all parties, the global economic growth rate will be higher than 4% in 2004. At the annual meeting jointly held by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in June 5438+ 10, participants generally believed that the global economy had stabilized in the past year. Before the meeting, the International Monetary Fund predicted that the global economic growth rate in 2004 was as high as 5%, higher than the 4.6% predicted in April, the highest growth rate in 30 years, and close to the 4.75% predicted by the American Institute of International Economics. The forecast of the World Bank's Global Economic Outlook 2005 released in June 165438+1October16 is 4%, which is lower than that of the International Monetary Fund. However, it is believed that the global economy grew strongly in 2004, showing simultaneous recovery and growth. Look at America first. Since the second half of 2002, stimulated by ultra-low interest rates and substantial tax cuts, the growth rate of the United States will exceed 4% in 2004. In the mid-year budget review report released on July 30th, the US government predicted that the US economic growth rate would be as high as 4.7% this year, the International Monetary Fund predicted 4.5% in August, and the World Bank predicted 4.3% in June 5438+065438+ 10. Secondly, looking at Japan, the Japanese economy entered a cyclical rebound in 2002, but the rebound was not strong. In 2003, Japan's economy continued to recover, achieving a growth rate of 2%. The World Bank predicted that Japan's economic growth rate in 2004 was 4.3%, much higher than the Bank of Japan's forecast of 3. 1%. This reminds people of the forecast made by the International Monetary Fund at the end of last year, that is, most countries in the world will continue to grow in 2004, and only Japan's economy is likely to repeat, and the economic growth rate will drop to 1.4%. However, since the beginning of this year, the International Monetary Fund has repeatedly raised Japan's economic growth rate. Although there are different forecasts at present, it is a foregone conclusion that Japan's economy is better than last year. The Japanese government believes that its economy is "steadily recovering". Look at the EU again. Although the EU economy has got rid of the weak state of zero growth last year, it is still not as good as the United States and Japan. Due to the double squeeze of high oil prices and a strong euro, the economic growth rate in the second half of the year was lower than people's expectations. Therefore, both the European Central Bank and the European Union have lowered their growth rates, and the annual economic growth rate is about 1.8-2%, ranking among the top three economies in the world, while the European Union is still at the bottom.
Judging from the pulling effect on the world economy, apart from the United States, China is the main one. Under the situation of macro-control and local cooling, China's economy has still achieved impressive results, maintaining a "fast, good and stable" development trend, with an economic growth rate higher than 9%, and there is no "hard landing" of China's economy. The position and role of China's economy in the world economy is more prominent and important, and China's economy has now become an important factor to be considered in forecasting the Asian regional economy and even the world economy. Practice shows that in the past two years, only the United States and China have been the "engines" to promote world economic growth. Due to the large economic base and good performance of the United States, Japan, Europe and China, the global economic aggregate increased by hundreds of billions of dollars in this year. With the exception of China, some large developing countries, including India, continue to maintain a rapid development trend. Therefore, in 2004, the overall economic growth rate of developing countries was still higher than that of developed countries. The World Bank's Global Economic Outlook 2005 predicts that 2004 will be the year with the highest economic growth rate of developing countries since 1974, with an estimated growth rate of 6. 1%, among which the economic growth rate of developing countries in East Asia and the Pacific is as high as 7.8% and that of the South Asian subcontinent is 6%. 4.7% in Latin America and the Caribbean; 3.2% in sub-Saharan African countries; 4.7% in the Middle East and North Africa. Among the developing China countries, East Asia still attracts the attention of the international community. There are three main reasons: First, the strong growth of East Asia is export-driven, especially the export of many countries in this region to China is increasing. The second is to benefit from the overall global economic recovery. Third, the world's high technology has rebounded periodically, and the demand for high-tech products, especially digital electrical products, has increased. Fourth, East Asian countries have accelerated their integration into the regional economy and the global economy, further expanding the space for foreign economic and trade cooperation. Russia reversed the negative economic growth at 1999. In the following five years, due to the increase of crude oil export, the increase of crude oil price, the increase of residents' real income and the positive changes of residents' consumption demand, its average annual economic growth rate reached 6.7%, including 7.3% in 2003, 7.4% in the first half of 2004 and still exceeding 7% in the whole year.
There are many internal and external reasons for the further general improvement and recovery of the world economy. Its * * * factor is due to the "six increases", that is, the increase of domestic consumption demand; The export of foreign products increased; Industrial production increased; Increased corporate profits; Investment in industrial equipment increased; The quantity and intensity of regional economic integration have increased.
Second, global trade has risen sharply, and bilateral and multilateral trade remains a powerful driving force for economic growth.
According to the statistics released by WTO, the annual growth rate of global trade volume was 2.5% in 2000/kloc-0, 4.5% in 2003 and 7.5% in 2004. The World Trade and Development Report 2004 published by UNCTAD pointed out that global commodity production and trade generally resumed growth in 2003, and global trade will continue to accelerate in 2004, which is expected to reach the level of the late 1990s. The reason for the rapid recovery of global trade is that Americans have become the ultimate consumers in the world, and the consumption capacity of the United States far exceeds the production capacity of the United States. The gap between the two is filled by countries whose production capacity far exceeds domestic demand. The United States spends more than $1 trillion every year to import all kinds of consumer goods from these countries. In other words, these countries keep sending food, clothes and supplies to Americans. Secondly, China has continuously lowered tariff rates and non-tariff barriers since its accession to the WTO for three years. The sustained and rapid economic growth has greatly increased the import of raw materials and equipment for agriculture and mining. Since the beginning of 2 1 century, the recovery and growth of Japanese economy mainly depend on the increase of exports to China, while the exports to the United States have dropped sharply. In 2004, China's import and export trade ranked third in the world, with the total trade volume reaching 1. 1 trillion US dollars, an increase of more than 250 billion US dollars over the previous year. This growth rate is also rare in the history of international trade development. Practice shows that China has changed from a so-called potential trading power to a real trading power. It can be said that the good operation of China's economy and the substantial increase in imports have created business opportunities for enterprises in many countries, increased employment opportunities and further stimulated its economic growth.
Although global trade has recovered, there are many factors that restrict the development of global trade, mainly in the huge differences in domestic consumption demand among major developed countries; The imbalance of trade development among major economic groups is increasing. These two factors have led to the rise of trade protectionism with anti-dumping and countervailing as the main forms. According to the statistics of WTO, from the official operation of WTO 1995 to June 2004, all members initiated 2537 anti-dumping investigations, which indicated that the world entered a period of frequent trade frictions. The increase of trade friction is an important feature of world economic and trade development under the trend of economic globalization. This kind of trade friction is not only reflected between developed countries, but also between developing countries and between developed and developing countries. However, the current international trade conflicts and contradictions still mainly occur among major trading countries. As a rising trading power, China has naturally become an important target of anti-dumping and countervailing in other countries. However, international experience shows that the so-called "trade war" between the United States, Europe and Japan has never stopped economic and trade exchanges. International trade always seeks the balance of national interests in friction and struggle, and promotes the continuous development of international trade. Therefore, we must rationally respond to the anti-dumping and countervailing actions of other countries against China products, and maintain a normal mentality, instead of politicizing and emotionalizing trade frictions.
Third, international capital flows have increased and foreign direct investment has resumed growth.
Foreign direct investment is an important factor of production in the economic development of all countries in the world. In 2000, global FDI reached a high of $654.38+040 billion, but in the following three years, FDI decreased year by year, with a decrease of 465.438+0% in 2006, 65.438+07% in 2002 and 65.438+ in 2003. The main reasons are the economic recession in various countries, the decline of investment safety factor and the weakening of investment desire. In 2003, the foreign direct investment flowing into developed countries dropped sharply by 25% compared with the previous year, reaching only $367 billion, while the foreign direct investment absorbed by developing countries increased by 9% year-on-year to $654.38+072 billion, but the distribution was uneven, and the developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region reached $654.38+007 billion.
The World Investment Report 2004 published by UNCTAD on September 22nd pointed out that foreign direct investment began to recover and rebound in 2004, and it is predicted that foreign direct investment will continue to rise in the Asia-Pacific region and Central and Eastern Europe, especially in China, Indian and Polish countries. In terms of foreign direct investment, the United States is still the largest investor in the world, with the amount of $654.38+052 billion in 2003, while the European Union and Japan have decreased. It is worth noting that there are two main changes. First, more and more developing countries are becoming capital exporters. From 200 1 to 2003, the proportion of developing countries' foreign direct investment in the total global foreign direct investment remained at around 7%. In 2003, the stock of developing countries' foreign direct investment totaled $859 billion, accounting for about 10% of the global foreign direct investment. It is estimated that global foreign direct investment will exceed 700 billion dollars in 2004, but it is still in the stage of recovery growth. Secondly, foreign direct investment is gradually tilting towards service industry, while investment in manufacturing industry is on the decline. In the early 1970s, foreign direct investment in service industry accounted for only 25% of the total foreign direct investment, which was increased to 50% in 1990, but now it has increased to over 60%, and the proportion of manufacturing industry has dropped to 34%. The transfer of global foreign direct investment to service industry reflects the promotion of service industry in the overall economy. For this reason, countries all over the world have relaxed the rules for foreign direct investment to enter the service industry, allowing foreign direct investment to enter the service industry that was only open to China in the past. Although international capital flows increased in 2004, many countries continued to improve their investment environment to meet the three requirements of investors, namely, safety, profitability and liquidity. Therefore, striving for more international capital inflows to make up for the shortage of development funds is still the goal pursued by all countries, and the competition for funds will be more intense.
Fourth, regional economic integration is accelerating on a global scale.
Although the World Bank analysis points out that the world is expected to pass free trade under the new trading system, the developed countries will reduce agricultural subsidies by 300 billion US dollars every year, which will increase the world's total trade income by 520 billion US dollars every year. However, this tempting "big cake" did not eliminate the complex contradictions among members, which led to the failure of the Cancun meeting in July 2003. In August 2004, 147 members reached a framework agreement on the main agenda of the Doha Round, but there is still a long way to go before the completion of the new round of global multilateral trade negotiations. It is an unattainable wish and goal to conclude the Doha Round negotiations in June 2005.
The slow progress of global multilateral trade negotiations and regional economic integration can avoid some negative effects brought by economic globalization. Therefore, the trend of regional economic integration has now become an irreversible trend, especially since the beginning of the 2 1 century, the regional economic integration marked by the signing of bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements and the establishment of free trade zones has shown a new development trend, thus pushing international economic and trade cooperation to a higher height and wider breadth. At present, intra-regional trade accounts for 50% of the total global trade, of which the trade between the EU accounts for 70% of the total foreign trade, the North American Free Trade Area accounts for 40%, and the intra-regional trade in Asia only accounts for 20%. This shows that the pace of regional economic integration in Asia is relatively slow, which puts Asia at a disadvantage in the world economic structure. Therefore, since the beginning of 2 1 century, with the joint efforts of all countries, Asia, especially East Asia, has accelerated the process of regional economic integration, including ASEAN Free Trade Area and ASEAN economy, "10+3" cooperation, "/kloc-0+1"cooperation and China and Japan. Especially in the process of establishing China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the implementation of the "early harvest plan" and the complete elimination of all tariffs in two stages have effectively promoted the development of trade between China and ASEAN, marking a new stage of economic and trade cooperation between the two sides. In the past two years, many Asian countries and regions have expanded their export trade to China, but their export share to Europe and the United States has dropped significantly. In 2004, the total bilateral trade volume reached the target of $654.38 billion one year ahead of schedule. With the sustained and healthy development of China's economy and the enhancement of complementarity among East Asian economies, there is still room for East Asia and even Asia to further increase their exports to China. Wang, Secretary-General of ASEAN, believes that when the FTA is fully implemented, the total trade volume between China and ASEAN will be as high as $654.38+04 billion. By then, the proportion of intra-East Asian trade will increase significantly.
The development of the world economy is always unbalanced, and the economic problems faced by countries vary widely, some are depressed and some are overheated; Some deflation, some inflation; Some consumer demand is strong, some consumer demand is weak, and so on. The world economy has always had dark spots and bright spots in the dark. The same is true of the world economic situation in 2004, with both good news and worries.
On September 1 1 2004, The Economist published an article entitled "The World Economy: Future Risks of the World Economy", written by Bergsten, director of the American Institute for International Economics. This paper focuses on five major risks facing the world economy, namely, the sharp rise of the current account deficit in the United States, the runaway budget in the United States, the rise of trade protectionism in the United States, the overheated economic growth in China and the persistently high oil prices. The five risks mentioned by Bergsten are the five important factors that restrict the development of the world economy in 2004. If it is not handled well and mistakes occur, it will also affect the development trend of the world economy in 2005. Among the five risks mentioned in this paper, the United States occupies the top three. The deficit of the United States in fiscal year 2004 was $41300 million, with imports twice as high as exports, and the trade deficit was as high as $600 billion. The unprecedented deterioration of the "twin deficits" problem in the United States led to the long-term depreciation of the US dollar. Theoretically and practically, the depreciation of the US dollar is conducive to expanding US exports, correcting trade imbalances and creating more employment opportunities. At the same time, the increase of fiscal deficit and the decline of national savings forced the American government to speed up foreign borrowing, thus making the United States the largest debtor country in the world. Since most of the foreign debts of the United States are denominated in dollars, the depreciation of the dollar actually means reducing the debt burden and causing losses to the dollar bonds purchased by other countries. It can be seen that the depreciation of the dollar has multiple meanings for the United States, which is why the United States verbally says that it wants to "maintain the strong position of the dollar" but actually allows the dollar to depreciate. As the government's fiscal deficit rises sharply, it will inevitably lead to an increase in interest rates. Therefore, since June 2004, the Federal Reserve has raised the federal funds rate four times, raising its interest rate from 1% to 2%, and there is still room for further interest rate hikes. The rise of interest rate will inevitably increase the production cost of enterprises, and then affect consumption and economic growth. However, the problems existing in the American economy have not caused the American economy to deviate from the basic normal track. But if the dollar continues to depreciate, it will shake the hegemony of the dollar. As the largest economic power in the world, any economic policy adopted by the United States will have positive and negative effects on itself and other countries. If the dollar rebounds and appreciates, imports further increase, and the trade deficit continues to soar, the US government will take more stringent market protection measures, and other countries will face more difficulties in exporting to the United States. The trend of the US dollar exchange rate is a matter of weighing the pros and cons. Therefore, although the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven has long been concerned about the exchange rate of the US dollar, and has recognized that "excessive exchange rate fluctuations and disorderly changes are not conducive to economic growth", the US dollar is still in a weak state. Although the European Union and Japan have criticized the depreciation of the US dollar, they have not taken joint intervention so far, which shows that the weak US dollar has not yet dealt a fatal blow to the economies of the European Union and Japan. In 2005, it remains to be seen where the US government will start to solve the bottleneck of economic development and promote sustainable economic development. Greenspan believes that reducing the US government's fiscal deficit is the best way to reduce the huge current account deficit, while reducing domestic investment, reducing consumption and other options are not positive long-term measures. To this end, Bush announced that he would cut the federal government's fiscal deficit by half during his second term, but there are still no feasible and effective measures to deal with it. The above three long-standing problems in the United States are still difficult to fundamentally reverse in 2005.
Bergsten's so-called fourth "China economic factor", namely, China's overheating, macro-control may lead to a hard landing of China's economy, thus affecting world economic growth, but it has not actually come true. On the contrary, in 2004, China's macro-control achieved remarkable results and continued to play a pulling role in the development of the world economy. However, some people still predict that China's economy will make a hard landing in 2005, which is hard to come true. It is a good thing that the international community regards "China economic factor" as an element in analyzing and forecasting the world economy, which shows that China's important position and role in the world economic structure have been fully affirmed by the international community.
As for the fifth risk-rising oil prices, it was indeed a big concern of the international community in 2004 and even in 2005. The rising prices of agricultural and mineral raw materials, especially oil, have affected and threatened the economic development of many countries in the world. The rise in oil prices is the result of many comprehensive factors, including the tight supply and demand in the international crude oil market; Changes in the inventory of commercial crude oil in the United States; International emergencies affect the normal supply of crude oil; Speculation in the crude oil futures market and so on, so that the price of a barrel of crude oil once broke through the $55 mark. But overall, because oil transactions are mainly paid in dollars, the actual oil price is basically in the affordable price range. Therefore, the negative impact of rising oil prices on oil-consuming countries and the world economy is not as great as expected. Since 65438+February, oil prices in the international market have tended to fall. However, the international community still has different views on whether oil prices will continue to rise or fall in 2005. Based on the fact that more and more oil consuming countries take measures to save energy and improve energy utilization efficiency, the relationship between oil supply and demand shows signs of easing, and the adverse effects of high oil prices on their oil producing countries, it is predicted that the international oil price may be in a relatively stable state in 2005.
In view of the above analysis, in 2005, the world economy will continue to grow, international trade will continue to expand, international capital flows will continue to increase and international economic and trade cooperation will continue to expand. Countries will make policy adjustments to their own economic bottlenecks in order to cope with various challenges faced by the internal and external environment and reduce the cost and expense of economic development. Therefore, in the new year, the world economy will continue to grow, but compared with 2004, the growth rate of some major economies will slow down slightly. The global economic growth rate may fall below 4%. Three long-standing problems in the US economy and the interest rate increase measures that the Federal Reserve will continue to take are expected to reduce the US economic growth rate to about 3.7%. Two-thirds of the EU's trade is concentrated within it, and it is traded in euros, so it is not affected by the depreciation of the US dollar. Driven by the further economic recovery in Germany, the EU economy may even be slightly better than that in 2004. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts that the economic growth rate of the EU will rise from 2% in the previous year to 2.5%. Japan's economy has entered the stage of self-discipline recovery, and the economic growth rate is likely to stabilize at 2-3%. As an economic transition country, Russia's economic growth rate will also slow down because the oil and gas price is lower than last year. Among the three developing groups in Asia, Africa and Latin America, the Latin American economy has improved for two consecutive years due to increased exports and rising raw material prices. However, the low added value of export products and the low national savings rate make it difficult to establish a domestic demand-led economic growth model. At the same time, the political situation is relatively turbulent. So its economic recovery is only a recovery rebound after falling into a trough. Compared with 2004, the economic growth rate will be reduced by about one percentage point. Within the African continent, the average annual economic growth rate in the past five years is 3. 1%, which is lower than the population growth rate. Poverty remains the main challenge. This is different from East Asia. In the past five years, the number of poor people in East Asia has decreased by 250 million, and China, Viet Nam, Thailand and other countries have made internationally recognized changes in improving people's livelihood and eradicating poverty. As the African continent has accelerated internal reforms and economic restructuring, civil strife and regional conflicts have slowed down, and the economic growth rate will not change much, and it can still maintain an economic growth rate of around 5%. However, due to the small economic aggregate, its impact on the world economy is limited. The economic prospects in Asia are still bright, and the overall economic growth rate will remain at around 6.5%, with South Asia achieving economic growth of around 6% driven by India and Southeast Asia slightly higher than 5%. The synchronous and strong economic growth of Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia will further promote the enhancement of domestic demand in Asia, make the economy of the whole Asian region grow continuously, and enhance the further integration of regional economies.
With regard to the current world economic situation, the Central Working Conference held by the Central Committee and the State Council in mid-February, 2004 made a correct and objective conclusion, clearly pointing out that, on the whole, peace, development and cooperation are the mainstream of the situation. Judging from the current world economic situation and its development trend, the international environment facing China's economic development is still the coexistence of opportunities and challenges, but overall, opportunities outweigh challenges. As long as the whole Party and the people of the whole country adhere to Scientific Outlook on Development, conscientiously implement the main tasks put forward by the Central Economic Work Conference, and continue to strengthen and improve macro-control, we can achieve comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable economic and social development and continue to play a sustainable and positive role in promoting the world economy.