1, crude oil price impact. Judging from crude oil, the output of liquefied petroleum gas in China mainly comes from refinery by-products, and the fluctuation of oil price has a direct impact on the price of liquefied petroleum gas. Because the fixed production costs (water, electricity, gas, equipment depreciation and personnel) of the refinery are relatively stable, and the proportion of liquefied petroleum gas in the crude oil processing volume is also relatively stable, the output of liquefied petroleum gas in the refinery is 2%~5% of the crude oil input. According to the data from June 20 17 to August 20 18, the correlation coefficient between crude oil price and domestic LPG price is 0.48.
2. Rigid production angle. In the past three years, the world LPG trade changed from demand-driven mode to supply-driven mode, which led to global oversupply and began to affect the "price-related" mode, especially the evolution of the United States from an importer to an exporter, which had a great impact on the international pricing system of LPG.
3. Seasonal demand. Under normal circumstances, the demand for LPG began to rise in the third quarter of that year until the Spring Festival of the following year. After March, the temperature gradually rose and the demand for LPG dropped significantly. Therefore, the periodic change of temperature causes the change of terminal demand, and then affects and reflects the trend of LPG price.
4. Coastal imports. Southeast coast is the main consumption area of liquefied petroleum gas in China. The energy structure in these areas is extremely unbalanced, and it is normal to lack coal and gas. Gas energy is highly dependent on foreign countries. The import volume of liquefied petroleum gas greatly exceeds that of other areas in China, and the price of liquefied petroleum gas in this area is closely related to the international market.
5. Alternative energy sources. Liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas are interdependent and complementary, and their direct competition is mainly reflected in industrial users, followed by fuel substitution.
6. Impact of domestic policies and market changes. Since 20 16, the national development and reform commission has cancelled the upper limit of gas ex-factory price, and the price limit of liquefied petroleum gas is no longer linked to the retail price limit of refined oil, and the domestic retail market of liquefied petroleum gas has been fully liberalized. Usually, retailers will set prices according to competitors' prices, inventory and market demand.