Coal accounts for 69% of China's domestic primary energy consumption, which is expected to remain unchanged before the 12th Five-Year Plan. The change of supply and demand and the price trend in the coal market reflect the macroeconomic trend of China to a great extent. The total coal shipments of Qinhuangdao Port account for more than 40% of the national total shipments, and the temporary decline in its coal storage does not mean that the macro economy is picking up. Judging from the overall supply and demand situation throughout the year, the coal market in the second quarter is still not optimistic.

Today's Focus March 28th, 2009

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Investigation of various industrial funds

"On the 28th, Shenhua Group will sign a five-year coal supply agreement with China Resources in Shanghai, with the price locked at 540 yuan/ton, with floating space." On March 27th, Jiang Zhimin, Secretary General of China Coal Industry Association, revealed in an interview with this newspaper.

"The two sides have negotiated a five-year supply contract." Liu Caiying, vice president of the association, confirmed to this newspaper that this is the closing price of 5,500 kcal coal after it was loaded at the port, which is about 10% higher than the contract price last year, but still lower than the market price of 20-30 yuan/ton.

Since mid-March, the closing price of 5,500 kcal Shanxi blended coal in Qinhuangdao Port has been 550-565 yuan/ton, which is slightly lower than 565-575 yuan/ton in the same period of last month, and there is a downward trend. In the same period, the coal storage in the port also dropped from a high of 7.66 million tons at the end of February to about 6.4 million tons.

When the price of thermal coal is still in the downward channel, this contract order for pricing 540 yuan has benchmarking significance for the annual contract price of thermal coal, and also marks the staged achievements of coal enterprises in the price game with power enterprises for more than three months.

However, it is still clear in the industry that the temporary decline in coal storage in Qinhuangdao Port does not mean that the macro economy is picking up. "This is the illusion of inventory transfer, not the result of energy demand." Zhao, deputy secretary-general of China Coal Economic Research Association, said that the coal market was still not optimistic in the second quarter from the overall situation of supply and demand throughout the year.

Adhere to market-oriented pricing

The government will not interfere with coal prices in the short term.

With regard to the contract price of coal, since the summary meeting of the coal supply and demand convergence contract at the end of last year, the two sides of coal and electricity have been deadlocked because of the great price difference.

In terms of coal, due to the excessive adjustment of taxes and fees and the excessive policy price increase of enterprises, it is required to raise coal prices moderately this year; In terms of electricity, the five major power groups suffered serious losses in 2008. At the same time, it is judged that the national economy will accelerate this year, and there is a lot of room for coal price reduction, which needs to be greatly reduced on the basis of the current implementation price.

The delay in determining the contract price has brought great uncertainty to the stable operation of the coal market this year. Xue-Gang Li, general manager of Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Center, analyzed that the relationship between coal supply and demand may go to extremes because of unilateral joint action.

In June and February this year, the trading price of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao was relatively stable. Li believes that this is because the two sides have temporarily shelved their price differences. If the problem is not fundamentally solved, the contradictions in the future may be further intensified or even irreconcilable.

At present, in terms of electricity, the "5+ 1" pattern between the five major power groups and China Resources Alliance has basically taken shape. Shenhua's signing with China Resources this time can be regarded as a breakthrough in the deadlock of thermal coal. 540 yuan's contract price has also been widely recognized by the industry. Wang Xianzheng, China Coal Industry Association, said that since the liberalization of coal prices, the industry has formed the understanding that * * * is priced according to calorific value, and the price per 100 kcal 10 yuan is basically acceptable to all parties.

Last year, the average price of thermal coal in the market was around 460 yuan per ton. Wang Xianzheng analysis, Shanxi-Shaanxi-Mongolia coal to Qinhuangdao freight is about 200-250 yuan per ton. After deducting the price increase of this intermediate link, the actual price is only 200 yuan. Last year, due to the increase of various policies, the cost per ton of coal increased by 97.2 yuan. Comprehensive calculation, coal enterprises are still at a low profit level.

Qinhuangdao Coal Trading Center also conducted a market analysis of coal prices. They refer to the production cost of 5,500 kcal coal produced by large state-owned coal mines in Datong area, plus the coal circulation cost and various taxes and fees, and think that its sales cost in Qinhuangdao area should be between 480-530 yuan/ton, and township coal mines should also be between 440-460 yuan/ton. Finally, the conclusion is that if the coal transaction price in Qinhuangdao market is lower than the above level, it will definitely hit the enthusiasm of coal production and sales enterprises, reduce the coal resources available in the market, and the coal price will retaliate.

Zhao has been engaged in coal cost and price research for a long time. He said that considering the reform of value-added tax, resource tax and environmental tax this year, the reserved space of coal cost this year should be around 70 yuan. Although the contract price in 540 yuan has increased compared with last year, it is still not enough to offset the above policy increase. Therefore, "below this price, coal enterprises will not sign contracts."

In this round of coal-fired power "topping cattle" process, coal enterprises can adjust the relationship between coal supply and demand by adjusting the output and sales quantity of raw coal due to the improvement of production concentration. Therefore, even in the depressed market background, their game with power companies still takes the initiative. Thanks to this, coal enterprises have always advocated market pricing, while power enterprises want state intervention.

The contract pricing of thermal coal has been widely concerned by the society. Earlier, some media reported that the National Development and Reform Commission was working out a compromise plan for the price of coal, which is expected to be introduced and put into practice at the end of March. In this regard, Wang Xianzheng repeatedly stressed at the board meeting that the government has decided to fully liberalize coal prices, and the reform direction of market-oriented pricing is irreversible.

Jiang Zhimin believes that it is unlikely that the government will come forward to set the price, because after the coal price is liberalized, the government can come forward to coordinate, but it will not interfere with the price again. He said, "The leaders of the National Development and Reform Commission reiterated this point many times in their speeches."

"Enterprises are the mainstay of market pricing. The attitude of the association is that it is best for the government not to interfere with the price of thermal coal, and enterprises should solve it themselves. " Liu Caiying told this newspaper that the supply of thermal coal market is balanced at present, the operation of power plants has not been affected by the supply of thermal coal, and the price is still falling. At this time, there is no need for the government to coordinate.

The situation is urgent in the second quarter.

"Three noes" principle of coal enterprise adjustment

Although coal enterprises still take the initiative in this round of coal-electricity game, the situation of coal market in the whole year is not optimistic.

Last year, China produced 2.7 billion tons of coal. Wang Xianzheng predicted that the total demand will not change greatly this year, which is basically the same as last year. Among them, the demand for electric coal is expected to increase slightly by 20 million tons on the basis of 654.38+0.6 billion tons last year; The annual demand for metallurgical coal may drop by 35 million tons; Coal used in chemical industry and building materials is the same as last year.

In the first two months of this year, the supply and demand of coal were basically balanced, with production and sales of about 330 million tons, which was basically the same as the same period last year. In March, the trading volume of Qinhuangdao coal was enlarged, and the coal stored in the port dropped rapidly from 7.66 million tons at the end of February to 6.4 million tons, showing signs of bottoming out.

"This is an illusion, which does not mean that the energy demand has improved." Zhao said that the active coal trading in Qinhuangdao is a small balance in the short term after the coal inventory was emptied in the previous stage. "The macro situation has not changed, but coal stocks have moved from ports to power plants."

According to 1 and the statistical analysis of the coal industry in February, at the end of February, the national social coal inventory was1.80 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, of which the coal inventory of direct power supply plants was 2 1.35 million tons, a decrease of 1.97 million tons. In order to fill the inventory, the power plant has increased its purchasing efforts, which has contributed to the amplification of coal trading volume in a short period of time.

According to the analysis of market participants, the trading price of thermal coal and the order of supply and demand in June 5438+0 and February this year were relatively stable, which was the result of many factors, including: the peak of coal consumption in winter and coal saving reserves, the attraction of low price to coal users, the restriction of coal mine safety factors on output and so on.

"During the two sessions, 90% of coal mines were on holiday, affecting the output of 23 million tons." Pu, vice president of the association, specially reminded that after March, with the resumption of production of coal mines, these production capacities will be released one after another, and the situation in the second quarter is not optimistic when the total demand is flat.

Xue-Gang Li also predicted that the coal market will go through a difficult period in the second quarter, and the price of thermal coal may drop, but if the price level at the end of last year is taken as the benchmark, it will not drop significantly. "As one of the leading and important supports of economic growth, energy consumption will go out of the trough before the macro economy." He believes that as long as the price is moderate, the coal production capacity will be in a relatively surplus state in 2009.

At the board meeting, Wang Xianzheng asked coal enterprises to calmly analyze the situation of coal supply and demand in the second quarter, organize production scientifically, and prepare for the long-term crisis. "The long-term capacity of coal production is insufficient, the demand exceeds supply, and the contradiction of short-term supply exceeding demand still exists," he said. In the past five years, the investment in the coal sector has reached 670 billion, and the production capacity will be released in a centralized manner during the year. After the second quarter, the coal situation will be more severe and difficult.

In order to effectively cope with the crisis, the board of directors reached the understanding of "three noes": no coal will be issued without a contract, no coal will be issued if the payment is overdue, and no coal will be issued if the coal price is lower than the cost. Pu said that adhering to these three principles will be the basic strategy for coal enterprises to cope with the crisis.

Website of coal information trading network:/meitan/a4/57832.html.

What was the coal market like in the first two quarters of 2009?

The fourth quarter of last year was the lowest point of market demand, and several coal transit bases in China had large stocks.

1 quarter, these inventories have decreased by 75%, and the demand has been decreasing and the demand has gradually increased. However, the recent coal price has not risen with the market demand. In the second quarter, coal demand is expected to continue to rise, but the research report on coal inventory, price and market demand has not yet come out. I read the research report of 1 at the end of the quarter. You can go to the major websites and read the chapters of the research report yourself.