In the face of depressed pig prices and excess market capacity, the pace of capacity expansion of listed pig enterprises may slow down.
It is widely believed in the industry that the price of live pigs may rebound in the second half of 222.
The production and marketing of pig enterprises are divided
Li Ming, a pig analyst of Shanghai Steel Agricultural Products Division, told China Business Daily that the pace of development and support of some enterprises slowed down in the second half of 221, resulting in no obvious increase in pig production capacity in the first half of 222.
Secondly, winter is an era of seasonal high incidence of pig diseases, which affects the recent breeding achievements of slaughter batches. In addition, due to the holidays in January and February, the effective sales days are few and the sales number is low, thus amplifying the differentiation of slaughter quantity of group enterprises.
It is known that although the pig slaughter of head pig enterprises such as Wen's shares and New Hope has not decreased, there is a tendency to slow down the expansion of production capacity.
in March, 222, Wen's shares adjusted the implementation progress of ten fundraising investment targets, and the production time was delayed until December, 223.
according to the performance of Wen's shares, before the pig price rebounded sharply, the company implemented the strategy of retaining strength to tide over the difficult period, controlling production capacity, investment and expenditure, reducing large-scale capital expenditure, slowing down the progress of the above-mentioned fundraising targets, and the original estimated support period needs to be extended.
Meanwhile, New Hope also shows that it will not invest on a large scale in breeding farms for the time being and will not start new projects.
The increasing financial pressure or the important reason for pig enterprises to slow down their production capacity.
The financial pressure is still an important problem faced by pig enterprises.
Since p>222, the feed price has risen more than five times, with an average increase of 8 yuan/ton 15 yuan/ton. The growth cycle of pigs is about six months, so the average feed price has been raised in the process of breeding, which also challenges the productivity structure of pig enterprises and maintains normal production.
at present, the relative surplus of supply is the important contradiction in the period when the low hog price reacts.
Li Ming shows.
Accelerated pace of production capacity de-chemicalization
It is noteworthy that people in the industry think that the slow expansion of production capacity of head pig enterprises does not mean a reduction in production, and the level of production capacity de-chemicalization in the industry depends on the withdrawal of small and medium-sized breeding retail investors.
Li Ming thinks that the slow release of production capacity of pig enterprises is only a business situation.
Based on the preliminary judgment of the future market, the enterprise can adjust the stock of fertile sows by motor.
for small and medium-sized farmers, they are faced with great pressure to withdraw funds, and they have to suffer from the helplessness of falling prices. Their psychological expectations have been broken again and again, their operations have been constantly adjusted, and even they have withdrawn from the industry, and the production capacity of all industries has been continuously reduced.
It is estimated that at present, the range-based aquaculture enterprises with more than 5 heads annually occupy about 6% of the market, and the output of the top 2 leading enterprises occupies about 2% of the market.
Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst of the whole industry chain monitoring and early warning of pork in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and researcher of the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Research of China Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that at present, the range farming enterprises occupy important markets, and leading enterprises lead the market development, which has become a new industry form.
Open source securities are also shown in the research report: In February, the number of fertile sows in the sample monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture still insisted on a downward trend.
in February, the industrial capacity was reduced in the range of %-1%.
since the beginning of the year, departmental farmers have gradually formed a rebound expectation for the price of live pigs in the second half of the year, which will definitely limit the recent monthly capacity reduction.
However, considering the downward trend of live pig prices and the enlarged loss of single head, we are optimistic about the extent of capacity reduction in March and May 222.
The single loss of breeding will also be enlarged, and the continuous loss will aggravate the cost pressure of pig enterprises and speed up the clearing of pig production capacity in the industry.
The pig industry continues to suffer.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the national average price of live pigs was 12.62 yuan/kg in the third week of March, down 2% from the previous week and 55.7% year-on-year.
according to the data, as of the third week of March, the average price of live pigs in China has been falling for 15 weeks.
The pig industry has suffered losses for 11 weeks.
According to the data of Shanghai Steel Refining-My Agricultural Products Network, under the mode of self-reproduction and self-support, the pig industry has been losing money continuously, and the current loss is 584 yuan/head; Under the mode of outsourcing piglets, they suffered losses continuously from late April to late October in 221, reaching the maximum loss of 1676 yuan/head in October, and recovered at the end of the year.
Because the pig industry has suffered losses continuously, the National Development and Reform Commission will start the third batch of central frozen pork storage and purchasing work with relevant departments this year.
according to the news of the national development and reform commission, the price of pig food has entered the first-level warning range of excessive decline for five weeks.
As of March 23rd, the national entry price of live pigs was 13.6 yuan/kg, down 1.28% from March 16th. The price of pig food was 4.53, down 1.31% from March 16th.
Has the price of live pigs fallen to the bottom?
With the help of policies and the acceleration of the pace of capacity transformation in the industry, departmental investment institutions are optimistic about the rebound of live pig prices.
CICC thinks that the current pig cycle will stop at the end of the second quarter, but the rebound of pig prices is highly or limited.
The price of live pigs is likely to remain at a low level, but the depth of exploration depends on the pace of production capacity, and the negative profit may continue in the near future.
There is also a concept that although the price of live pigs may rebound in the second half of 222, it does not mean that the turning point in the live pig market has emerged.
from mid-August to the end of September in p>221, the production capacity will reach the peak. According to the breeding cycle, the supply of live pigs will decrease in June and August in 222.
Li Ming shows that pig enterprises can reduce the unlucky fluctuation of price risk to a certain level through the futures manipulation of feed and pigs, and their enthusiasm for reducing production will be reduced.
Small and medium-sized retail farmers can also extend their operations by selling departmental piglets to reduce the financial pressure.
however, from the perspective of the industry, the price of live pigs has reached the bottom of the cycle, and the market's feeling of looking forward to the rebound of live pig prices is increasing.
according to the relationship between market supply and demand, the price of live pigs is expected to remain above the average cost of industry breeding in the second half of this year.
but this can't be regarded as a turning point in the market, and it is more appropriate to regard it as a time-based adjustment.
Zhu Zengyong's performance: At present, it can only be said that the price of live pigs has reached the bottom.
In the first half of p>222, the obvious characteristics of oversupply emerged. However, since January and February, the supply of piglets has declined month-on-month, which means that from July onwards, the intermittent oversupply situation of commercial pigs will be improved, and the overall situation of the pig market will improve in the second half of the year.
However, the basic level of supply has not changed, so the reversal of the pig cycle may not be possible in 222.
There is still a gap between the current hog price and the low price of 11.51 yuan/kg in the first week of October 221 in 1 yuan.
In April p>222, the price of live pigs may drop slightly, but there is not much room for it.
The current hog price is lower than the same low in 219 and higher than the low of 1.3 yuan/kg in 218. However, the difference between the two cycles is in 3 yuan/kg 4 yuan/kg, so there is little room for the pig price to fall in the future.
In April p>222, the price of live pigs was still at a low level or slightly lowered.
Zhu zengyong's performance.