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2005 165438+ 10/91:1421Century Business Herald
Our reporter Qian Qi reports from Hong Kong.
Open positions in September?
The short position of 10,000 tons of March copper on the London Metal Exchange makes the State Reserve Bureau of China sit on the crater, and the copper price in the international market is like the magma in the crater, ready to go.
The source of the volcano is the rumored overseas futures trader Liu of the State Reserve Bureau. A good trader said, "In September, after Liu's name spread, the price of copper was gone forever."
Ruifu Global Futures Co., Ltd. is one of the most active 13 market makers in LME. Ding Shimin, senior vice president of the company's marketing department, denied the widely reported statement that Liu started to build positions in four or five rooms this year. "More than 90% of copper futures trading in London is mainly based on three months. Liu's transactions in April and May should be contracts for early delivery. The 200,000 empty orders delivered on June 5438+February 2 1 should be opened in September. "
The margin for copper futures contracts on the London Metal Exchange is 9% of the total contract value. If positions are opened in April and May, it is estimated that copper futures will rise from $3,200 per ton at that time, and it is necessary to make up positions continuously to maintain the contract, involving tens of millions of dollars. This is something that an individual trader in Zuowei Liu cannot bear and conceal.
According to the contract, the 3-month contract delivered on February 2 1 should start from September 23.
According to the public information of London Metal Exchange, during the three days from September 19 to 23, the copper price changed greatly, from $3,500 to $3,800 per ton.
The London Metal Exchange is the most active of the three major metal exchanges, including new york and Shanghai, with an average monthly trading volume of 6,543,800 lots (25 tons per lot). The average monthly transaction volume of SHFE is only half that of London, with 5 tons per contract. According to the actual transaction volume, the monthly transaction volume of LME is more than 10 of SHFE. LME traders mostly come from large miners in different countries, international hot money and hedge funds.
According to LME's daily average turnover of 50,000 lots, it won't attract much attention for the brokers on the floor to open a list of hundreds of lots, but 1 1,000 lots, 2000 lots are opened, and someone will stare at you immediately. Because the authorization of ordinary traders in some investment banks is between 1000-2000 lots, which is the knowledge of the market, positions beyond this authority will cause great concern and speculation of opponents. "In the market, both sides of a single large transaction know each other very well. Brokers who work here every day can spread a news throughout the market within 5 minutes. " The above trader said.
Sources estimate that Liu kept selling orders for the three-month A copper delivered on February 2 1 65438, hoping that the price of copper would fall, and he always hoped that the last selling order would turn the situation around, and the more he sold, the more he owed. In the middle and late September, Liu built 8,000 short contracts, which made his opponents extremely excited. A group of hedge funds bet on this short position of 200,000 tons, and the price increase is the result of fund containment. There are rumors that hedge funds are dominated by American capital.
Liu's trading channel
Liu is a staff member of the National Reserve Material Adjustment Center of the National Development and Reform Commission. Whether he is authorized by the center or the State Reserve Bureau to conduct futures trading has become the focus of market attention. Because the trading volume of 8000 lots already belongs to the authorization level of senior traders in investment banks.
According to the relevant domestic policies, neither the State Reserve Bureau nor the State Reserve Material Adjustment Center are eligible to participate in overseas derivatives trading. LME also denied that the State Reserve Board was one of them.
So through what channels did Liu realize these transactions in overseas markets?
LME's public information shows that its members are divided into five categories. The first category is ring trading, with the most comprehensive trading qualifications, including self-employment, brokerage and settlement. It can be traded inside and outside the market 24 hours a day. The market is called "market maker", only 13, and Ruifu Global Futures is one of them. The following four types of members' trading qualifications are decreasing: quasi-brokerage clearing (with brokerage and settlement qualifications, mainly for Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and other big banks), quasi-trade clearing (with one more settlement function than quasi-trade), quasi-brokerage (Ring dealing can be called to trade on behalf of customers) and quasi-trade (trading only on their own behalf, mostly for miners from various countries).
According to the news from the market, Liu, together with a large domestic state-owned enterprise capable of participating in overseas derivatives trading, jointly threw out 350,000 tons of A copper for delivery on June 5438+February 2/Kloc-0. If this large state-owned enterprise is a member of LME, its trading qualification should belong to the category of related party transaction liquidation or related party transaction. However, no company from China was found in the list of LME website members. The reporter asked LME for verification and did not get a clear answer.
Some analysts believe that "how Liu achieves the purpose of trading is a risk control issue. However, China institutions have been repeatedly seen by their opponents in the overseas derivatives market, which deserves reflection. "
Sina statement: the content of this article is purely the author's personal opinion, which is for investors' reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.