The "plunge" of the bond market caught bond investors off guard, which led to greater redemption pressure and obvious market negative feedback. However, the agency believes that for bond fund investors, time can smooth out short-term fluctuations, and in the long run, the short-term loss of capital gains of bond funds will be gradually repaired with the accumulation of coupon income.
The bond market ushered in the biggest fluctuation in two years, and the net value of the debt base was obviously retreated.
165438+1October19th, a fund investor told reporters that the net value of many bond funds (hereinafter referred to as "debt funds") he bought fell for several days in a row, among which the short-term debt fund with the most losses once fell 1 1 day, while the short-term debt fund with the largest loss once fell.
Although on June 5438+065438+ 10/8, the bond funds held by the above-mentioned fund investors ushered in one after another, which made him feel a little comforted. However, he told reporters that he was still worried because all the bond funds he bought had a holding period and could not be sold now, and he was still full of doubts about why these funds had fallen recently and whether they would continue to fall in the future.
In addition to the above-mentioned fund investors, in fact, many domestic investors holding bank wealth management and pure debt fund products are experiencing the biggest fluctuation in the bond market in the past two years.
As of165438+1October 18, the CSI total debt index, which comprehensively reflects the inter-bank bond market and the bond market of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, rose slightly in only two of the four trading days in165438+1October, and fell by 0.88 this month.
The underlying assets of net worth bank wealth management and pure debt funds are mostly standardized bonds. The sharp fluctuations in the bond market have undoubtedly impacted the net value of bank wealth management products and pure debt fund products.
The fluctuation of the bond market has a wide influence, involving a large scale of products. In 2022, the new asset management regulations were officially opened in the first year, and the wealth management market broke the rigid redemption and entered the net worth era. The scale of bank wealth management products has developed rapidly. According to the statistics of Puyi Standard, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, the scale of bank net worth wealth management products is estimated to reach 28.96 trillion yuan, most of which are fixed income wealth management products. At the same time, in recent years, due to the poor performance of equity funds, the yield of monetary funds has gradually declined, and pure debt funds have been sought after by investors for their steady returns. By the end of the third quarter, the total scale of pure debt funds reached 6.53 trillion yuan.
The adjustment of the bond market makes the net product value of the bond-based assets decline one after another, which makes the holders feel unexpected fluctuations.
Historically, this bond market adjustment has had a great impact on bond funds. The data shows that the medium-and long-term pure debt fund index and the short-and medium-term pure debt fund index rank fourth and third respectively in the monthly decline of nearly 10 this month.
Specifically, as of June 165438+ 10/8, of the 2 135 pure debt funds in the whole market, only 2 13 pure debt funds have a positive monthly income recently, accounting for a loss. In other words, more than one-third of pure debt Kim Jong-un encountered the most difficult moment in history. In this round of decline, the monthly decline of 372 pure debt funds 1 exceeds 1%, while the average annual return of pure debt funds in 202/kloc-0 is only 4%.
Bank wealth management products also performed poorly. The performance data of net worth of wealth management products show that excluding products with no net worth for a long time, as of June165438+1October 18, among the 3 1477 wealth management products with updated net worth in the whole market (including those issued by banks and financial management subsidiaries of banks), there are 2,659 products with losses since their establishment. Of the 142 17 wealth management products whose net worth was publicly updated in the last week, 949 1 products fell, accounting for 67% of the total.
However, after a few days of sharp decline, 2-year and 5-year treasury bonds futures and the CSI total debt index showed signs of stabilization. 165438+1October 18 The profit ratio of pure debt-based gold reached 65%, and the loss ratio was greatly reduced.
Or emotional shock.
The unexpected decline of the bond market in June 5438+065438+ 10 caught many institutional and individual investors off guard. Compared with the stock market, there are many factors that affect the trend of the bond market, such as macroeconomic policies, regulatory policies, market sentiment and so on. Why did the bond market suddenly plummet? The reason is that many institutions attribute it to the change of policies and the influence of emotions.
"The direct reason is that the repair of market fundamentals has ushered in optimistic expectations." Wang Xianbiao, fund manager of Nord Fund, said that due to the epidemic situation and real estate regulation, the market generally expects that the repair process of fundamentals may be slow and the elasticity of repair may be weak. This year's economic recovery process is accompanied by the central bank's interest rate reduction operation, so bond market investors are generally optimistic about the market. With the gradual optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and the adjustment of real estate policies, the market has higher expectations for the recovery time and height of the subsequent economy. With the approaching of the end of the year, the interest rate of funds is in a tight situation, the main trading logic of the market has undergone major changes, and investors in the bond market have changed from over-optimism to over-pessimism, so the bond market has experienced a rapid decline.
"In terms of funds, since June 165438+ 10, the funds have been continuously tight, overnight rate has gradually converged to the OMO interest rate, and the market is worried that monetary policy will gradually tighten." Analysis of Ping An Fund.
The expected impact of policy relaxation is considered to be the first stage of the bond market decline. Founder Securities pointed out that this point was fully released on 165438+ 10/4, for example, the interest rate of 10-year treasury bonds rose on that day 10bp to 2.84%.
The fixed income investment department of China Merchants Fund said that since the adjustment of the superimposed bond market, wealth management and short-term debt funds have faced greater redemption pressure, and the market negative feedback is obvious. Founder Securities attributed it to the second stage of the adjustment of the bond market, that is, the redemption pressure brought by the decline of the bond market led to the passive selling of bonds by institutions, and the bond market was adjusted. The adjustment of the bond market has intensified the redemption pressure.
The reporter noticed that there was a large-scale redemption tide of an online celebrity bond fund with a large number of individual investors, which led to the delay in the redemption of funds, and even more than 20 debt bases issued announcements to improve the accuracy of the net share value, all of which were due to "large redemption".
Different from the reasons for the fluctuation of fund net value caused by the sharp drop in the bond market in history, many institutions believe that it is not caused by the change of fundamental environment, but has a special background. For example, Haitong Securities believes that the bond market crash is more due to emotional impact, which is essentially different from the long-term high leverage of the previous bond market.
For deeper reasons, Qin Han, chief analyst of Guotai Junan, believes that once the expected interest rate of the market is reversed, the redemption-decline-redemption negative feedback will appear in the 20-30 trillion scale wealth management market with net worth conversion, which is considered to be the biggest risk in the current bond market. He pointed out that in the process of net transformation of wealth management products, wealth management subsidiaries have made great efforts to scale, and the effect is very obvious. At the same time, in order to match the characteristics of short-term wealth management products, wealth management subsidiaries also bought a large number of short-term pure debt products. The huge wealth management funds in the early days triggered a strong bull market, such as the convertible bond bull market in 202 1 and the credit bond bull market in 2022.
Pure debt funds are mainly funded by financial management companies and other institutions because of their relatively low income. In recent years, the scale of pure debt funds has grown rapidly. According to the statistics of Securities Times reporters, at the end of 2020, 202 1 and the end of the third quarter of 2022, the scale of pure debt funds reached 3.88 trillion yuan, 5. 14 trillion yuan and 6.53 trillion yuan respectively. In addition, institutional investors are the main participants in pure debt funds. In the first half of this year, the number of pure debt funds with institutional investors accounting for over 50% reached 1676, accounting for 78.5% of the total.
Qin and Han dynasties emphasized that once the trend is reversed, negative feedback will be formed and will continue. Moreover, because the information transmission is very fast now, the learning effect before superposition will lead to the unanimous expectation that there will be a rush once it is formed, and when more people are rushing, this negative feedback mode will be further aggravated.
Many wealth management companies are more sensitive to the decline of the bond market. The reporter learned from the industry that in the adjustment of the bond market, the large-scale redemption of pure debt funds by the bank's wealth management subsidiaries also accelerated the selling of bonds in Public Offering of Fund, further aggravating the fluctuation of the bond market.
Smoothing short-term fluctuations over time
Many new investors are the first to encounter the withdrawal of fund net value caused by the sharp drop in the bond market. According to the reporter, fund companies have recently received many complaints about the decline in the net value of debt base.
However, for individual investors, the bond market is still a relatively stable market. According to the fixed income investment department of China Merchants Fund, although the bond market is a volatile market, it is more stable compared with other markets, which is reflected in its limited fluctuation space and low probability of a plunge on the trading day. Holding the debt base has a long-term return, and the short-term capital gain loss will be gradually repaired with the accumulation of coupon income.
The Securities Times reporter found that in the past decade, the monthly negative returns of the Wind short-term pure debt fund index and the Wind medium-and long-term pure debt fund index appeared 10 and 26 times respectively, and the maximum monthly losses were 0.63% and 1.34% respectively, but the highest cumulative net value of 99% pure debt funds appeared in 2022. It can be seen that both the loss span and the loss range account for a small proportion when the cycle is lengthened. On the whole, the long-term performance of pure debt funds is stable, and short-term fluctuations can be ironed out over time.
After the bond market plunged, many fund managers also said that they should adjust their investment strategies appropriately.
A fund manager in South China said that for individual portfolios, the redemption pressure exists objectively, but at present, the bond market depth and trading activity are good, and the stable foundation pays attention to the adjusted opportunities. At the same time, the market liquidity environment is relatively balanced, and liquidity risk is unlikely to occur. From the perspective of investment management, the countermeasures mainly include adjusting portfolio liquidity positions and actively grasping market opportunities to replace them in advance.
How to get to the market?
From the latest point of view of institutions, the short-term adjustment of the market comes more from the trading shock caused by redemption pressure, so when will the trading shock caused by short-term redemption pressure end?
The fixed income investment department of China Merchants Fund predicts that the short-term adjustment pressure of the bond market needs to wait for the negative feedback to disappear, and it is expected to be weak and volatile for some time. Judging from the adjustment range, the current bond market has long-term allocation value. Bears in the bond market need to see the tightening of monetary policy. Under the premise that the current economic fundamentals are weakening and the stable growth orientation in the future still needs to maintain a reasonable and sufficient monetary policy, it is unlikely that liquidity will be tightened actively and continuously from the policy.
Wang Xianbiao, the proposed fund manager of Nord Fund, believes that the selling tide in the bond market has come to an end, and the current economic performance is slightly weaker than after the first wave of epidemic in 2020. One-year certificates of deposit have risen to around 2.65%, which is very attractive. After all, the MLF interest rate has dropped to 2.75% this year, so the capital interest rate is likely to move closer to the policy interest rate from the low level. In addition, the current adjustment of epidemic policy is the optimization of epidemic prevention policy, not the complete relaxation of epidemic prevention policy, and epidemic disturbance still exists. Furthermore, the bottoming effect of real estate policy needs further observation. In addition, there is no obvious shift in monetary policy, so the rapid decline in the bond market may be unsustainable.
Facing the adjustment of the bond market, what is the next step in the layout of the bond market?
Looking forward to next year, the fixed income investment department of China Merchants Fund believes that the coupon income in the bond market is already attractive. In terms of breakdown, most of the high-grade credit bonds in the three-year period have a thick spread with the short-term capital cost. In addition, the secondary and perpetual bonds of banks also have trading opportunities under negative feedback. The combination of early maturity and low leverage can appropriately increase bond assets at a certain pace.
Wang Xianbiao predicted that the bond market will continue to repeatedly play around strong economic expectations and weak economic reality, and the bond market fluctuation may be significantly enlarged. In order to cope with the possible fluctuations in the future, the liquidity of portfolio is very important, so the follow-up investment will pay more attention to the liquidity of allocated assets, find some high-quality targets and bond varieties that have been killed by mistake while ensuring the liquidity of products, and pay attention to the opportunities of overshoot and expected difference in the new dynamic balance.