The reasons for the rise in commodity prices are as follows:
In the short term, the sharp rise in international market prices is caused by many unexpected events and extreme weather, but it can not be ignored that there are hidden factors that affect the long-term price trend of supply and demand and currency liquidity.
First, the influence of short-term speculative factors tends to be complicated. The prices of agricultural products will continue to rise, while energy and metal commodities will intensify fluctuations. From the short-term factors, extreme climate change is the main reason for the recent sharp rise in market prices. The rapid increase of coal price is caused by the decrease of coal production caused by floods in Australia, traffic jams caused by domestic disasters and the shortage of electricity supply in South Africa. The shortage of food supply is also caused by natural disasters in major grain-producing countries. The rise in oil prices is induced by geopolitics, interest rate cuts in the United States and the depreciation of the dollar.
These short-term factors change the balance of supply and demand in a short time, affect the preferences of market participants and improve the excuses of market speculators through the expectation of medium and long-term factors, thus playing an influential role. Moreover, the international capital market has entered a high consolidation stage from a long time ago. First, some short-term emergencies will cause prices to fluctuate greatly. We believe that speculative factors appear as short-term factors. Use some short-term factors that affect the relationship between supply and demand and currency liquidity to speculate in the market. The influence at this stage is mainly the increase of price fluctuation. What deserves attention is the trend of the international futures market. The price of agricultural products has fallen at a high level in the past two months, indicating that some speculators lack confidence. Speculation will still play a role in the price increase in the international market, but this role lies in intensifying market fluctuations and causing price ups and downs.
Therefore, on the whole, short-term factors will be the main reason for the recent sharp rise in prices, but its complicated trend will also be the main reason for the sharp drop in prices. We should pay close attention to the occurrence of short-term events, do a good job in emergency mechanism and carry out necessary price control.