The current price increases are mainly structural price increases and structural inflation, not overall inflation! The so-called structural, that is, some things are expensive, and the prices of other things have not changed much! For example, the price of cars has dropped a lot now, depending on what brand you buy. The prices of mobile phones and laptops have dropped, as well as motorcycles and things like clothing, shoes and hats. . . . In short, except for the means of production such as steel and cement, the prices of industrial consumer goods have basically not risen or even declined. At present, the focus of price increase is food and transportation energy. Not to mention transportation and energy. Now that the oil price is so expensive, it is naturally affected. The high food price can be seen from three aspects: (1) the rising cost; (2) market supply; (3) Excess liquidity of hot money. (1) The rising cost is the direct internal cause of the rising food price. Take pork and grain for example. Growing food requires land and fertilizer. Land price is very expensive now. Needless to say, although farmers own their own land, like some large grain growers, they need to buy and lease, which is naturally greatly affected by the price. Fertilizer is closely related to the price of oil. Kind of things out, hire people, use cars, use oil. Labor costs are also rising, oil prices are rising, and natural transportation costs are also increasing. As a result, the current food prices began to rise. The rise in food prices has led to an increase in pork prices. The agricultural industrial chain will also rise accordingly. In turn, the rising prices of agricultural products have promoted the increase of citizens' living consumption cost, which in turn has led to the need to increase labor wages. So to some extent, yes is a vicious circle. In addition, it must be said that due to the rising oil price in the international market and the popularization of bioenergy technology. Many developed countries have begun to buy corn and other crops in large quantities for refining. It also makes the international grain futures price soar, making it difficult to import, which also affects China. (2) The rising cost is not necessarily reflected in the price, because there is still market supply that must be considered. Price is the intrinsic embodiment of commodity value. At present, China is a big industrial country with a very developed industry, especially the low-end industrial chain. So many farmers do not work in the countryside, but go out to work. This makes few people in rural areas engaged in agricultural production. In addition, China's agriculture has not achieved real modern management. There is no guarantee that more and better agricultural products will be produced with less life. Therefore, the supply of products is far below the demand, leading to an excessive rise. Such as vegetable oil! However, many local and county-level organs have the problem of falsely reporting grain output, which makes the central government unable to understand and grasp the real grain production situation. Look at the current situation in various rural areas, and everyone will be clear. Every time you cross the Zhejiang-Jiangxi line by car, you can find some wasteland in Jiangxi and Hunan provinces that nobody cares about. (3) The liquidity of hot money is too large. These are domestic and foreign. Mainly for the housing market! However, the rise in property prices has led to a large proportion of people's living expenses. And this has produced a chain effect, making the food related to people's lives rise! In addition, the rapid appreciation of the renminbi has also played a role in fueling the situation. Basically, these three points are the cause! Looking around the world, affected by the inflation of manufacturing factories in China and the global food supply shortage, structural inflation has appeared all over the world, such as Britain and the United States. Not only in our country. The government has been taking measures for a long time. The measures are also aimed at these three points. (1) Increase the purchase price and give farmers subsidies for growing grain and raising pigs. In addition, since 2007, the exemption of agricultural tax, the exemption of nine-year compulsory education fees for rural children, the construction of new countryside and the establishment of rural medical insurance system are all urging farmers to return to agricultural management. Now a group of people along the coast have returned to their old jobs. However, the government has not carried out in-depth reform of the agricultural management system, or according to the household contract responsibility system 30 years ago! This is more conservative. Encourage the establishment of new technology agricultural companies and develop modern high-tech agriculture and high-efficiency agriculture. Although there are such companies, the government and banks have not seen any preferential and supportive measures in terms of policies and loans. This needs the government's attention! (2) make every effort to crack down on price gouging. And try to stabilize domestic oil prices. (3) Raise interest rates, raise the deposit reserve ratio, suppress the property market, stabilize the financial system, and control excessive capital flow! It stands to reason that these measures will take effect together in the second half of 2008. Because after half a year, many agricultural products began to be listed one after another. The new cycle will begin, but this year's heavy snow broke the plan. Therefore, I estimate that the factors leading to the rapid rise of food prices in China have gradually disappeared, and China's economy has achieved a real soft landing, probably at the end of the year or next year!

Seek adoption