Meanwhile, Vietnam's inflation rate reached a new high of 25% in May. What is the future trend of Vietnam's economy? Will it affect neighboring China and even the whole Asian economy? Is this the beginning of the global economic crisis? This website interviewed Ms. Pan Jin 'e, director of the Foreign Socialist Practice Research Office of China Academy of Social Sciences and an expert on Vietnamese issues.
Due to people's excessive panic about inflation expectations, the Vietnamese economy is still difficult to define.
People's enterprises run on dollars and gold, and the state is short of foreign exchange.
Reporter: Since 1986, Vietnam has established a national strategy of "reform and opening up", and the Vietnamese version of "reform and opening up" has gone smoothly for more than 20 years. After the Asian financial crisis, Vietnam's economic development momentum has been very good. Why has the financial market been in turmoil recently? What is the internal cause? What is the external cause?
Pan Jine: First of all, I want to talk about some Vietnamese economic data on the Internet. It may be inaccurate to say that Vietnam's stock market depreciates by 5-7% every day and the inflation rate reached 25% in May. As far as I know, due to the rising international grain and oil prices, Vietnam's CPI (Consumer Price Index) in May was close to 20%. It can be said that prices in Vietnam have skyrocketed, but it is still uncertain. Describe it with inflation. Because CPI consumer price increase and inflation are not exactly the same thing, there are many factors.
The daily depreciation of the Vietnamese dong is 5-7 percentage points, which should be free market price data, not official data. Because in the Vietnamese exchange rate market, the daily fluctuation range of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar is within 2%, which will not exceed this range.
It's only been half a month since the financial market turmoil in Vietnam. The internal causes are as follows: First, the soaring domestic grain and oil prices-from the market point of view, the current rise in grain and oil prices in the international market has driven the soaring domestic prices in Vietnam. The price situation in Viet Nam is different from that in China. In Viet Nam, the price increase of grain and food accounts for nearly 48% of CPI, while the price factor of grain and oil in China only accounts for about 34% of CPI. As a result, Vietnamese people and some enterprises were so frightened that they began to snap up grain and exchange dollars for gold, which aggravated the turmoil in the domestic market. What needs to be added is that there are many private gold shops in Vietnam, and officials allow residents to freely buy and sell hard currency such as US dollars and gold.
In addition, Vietnam is an oil importer, and the rise in international oil prices has led to an increase in domestic oil prices, which has also consumed a large amount of foreign exchange reserves;
2. Excessive panic among people and enterprises-The Vietnamese government relaxed its control over financial markets, including the financial turmoil, after its formal accession to the WTO in June 65438+1October 2007. The government did not do enough in advance, and the strength and effectiveness of the policy were very low. Last year, the Vietnamese stock market grew as crazy as the China stock market, with a P/E ratio as high as 75 times. With a large amount of hot money flowing in, the stock market with such a high level will definitely fall. This time, a large amount of hot money was withdrawn, which also led to a sharp drop in the stock market.
Third, the government's foreign exchange reserves are insufficient-Vietnam's long-term foreign trade has been in a deficit state in recent years, with low foreign exchange reserves and a lot of foreign debts. In particular, Vietnam's foreign trade deficit has risen rapidly this year, accounting for almost 50% of Vietnam's total foreign trade. Similarly, like many Asian countries, affected by the sharp depreciation of the US dollar, the Vietnamese government had to take out the already scarce foreign exchange reserves and buy a lot of US dollars to stabilize the exchange rate of its currency and prevent the appreciation of the Vietnamese dong. Now, some enterprises and individuals have started to run dollars and gold in large quantities from banks, markets and even black markets, resulting in a decrease in foreign exchange reserves and a great decline in their ability to stabilize financial markets. It can be said that Vietnam's stock market has reached a dangerous juncture, depending on what the government does.
After joining WTO, the government's economic policy of relaxing financial supervision is not effective enough.
China's investment in large-scale projects in Vietnam will inevitably lead to losses for small enterprises.
External factors: As I said just now, after China's entry into WTO, the Vietnamese market is linked to the international market. The recession in the United States, the depreciation of the US dollar and the rise in food and oil prices naturally affect Vietnam's domestic economy. On the other hand, the Asian economy has been optimistic in recent years. After the depreciation of the US dollar, a large number of international hot money and hot money flowed into Asian stock markets, including the Vietnamese stock market. The withdrawal of hot money exacerbated the stock market crash.
Reporter: What impact will the future turmoil in Vietnam's financial market have on its domestic economy? What kind of rescue measures should the government take?
Pan Jine: It's only been half a month since this financial incident happened. It's hard to judge how much impact it has brought to Vietnam and even East Asia, mainly depending on whether the next measures of the Vietnamese government are effective.
But I personally think that the short-term impact of this stock market turmoil is limited. First of all, Vietnam is the third largest grain exporter in the world. People worry that food is not enough because they expect excessive psychological panic, and the impact on the stock market is only short-term. Secondly, Vietnamese people's psychological endurance to economic fluctuations should still be very high. In 1980s, the inflation rate in Vietnam was as high as 1.000%. It should be said that the people have a psychological basis for coping.
Reporter: We saw online reports that some Chinese-funded enterprises in Vietnam began to lay off employees in order to survive. What is the current situation of China's enterprises in Vietnam? How big is the impact of this stock market turmoil?
Pan Jine: It should be said that China's investment in Vietnamese enterprises is mainly based on national projects and large enterprises. The stock market decline will not dampen China's investment confidence. If some small domestic enterprises and private enterprises had invested blindly at that time, they would have suffered a big loss this time for short-term quick success and instant benefit. Not only Japanese companies, but also European and American Japanese companies.
The RMB is not freely convertible in Vietnam, and the stock market crash in Vietnam has little impact on Asia.
As a socialist country, Vietnam's reform and opening-up drew lessons from the China model.
Reporter: What role does the RMB play in Vietnam? If the stock market turmoil in Vietnam triggers a chain reaction, leading to the Asian and even international market economic crisis, will China, as the largest neighbor, lend a helping hand like the Asian financial crisis in 1997?
Pan Jine: First of all, the Vietnamese economic situation has little influence on China. Sino-Vietnamese trade accounts for about 0.5% of China, accounting for about 0/0/0% of Vietnam. Renminbi is not a freely convertible hard currency like the US dollar in Vietnam, and shops in Vietnam cannot accept RMB transactions. However, due to the active border trade between China and Vietnam, Vietnamese people are also used to storing RMB as "hard currency". Of course, if Vietnam provides support to China, China, as a neighboring country, will certainly not support standing by.
Reporter: What is the significance of the stable development of Viet Nam to China and the region? If the stock market turmoil in Vietnam spreads to the whole of Asia, does Asia need to prepare for the economic crisis together, as in 1997?
Pan Jine: China is pleased with the stable development and sustained economic growth of Viet Nam. Because Vietnam is not only our main neighbor, but also a socialist country, and its reform and opening-up model and economic model are similar to those of China. If there is a problem with the development model of Viet Nam, it will inevitably lead to the reflection of socialist countries including China. So we don't want Vietnam's reform and opening up to fail.
The Vietnam crisis should be of little relevance. Even if it really spreads to the surrounding areas, the current economic strength and financial system of Asian countries ten years after the 1997 financial crisis can be completely resisted.