Qin Zhanxue, vice president of China Building Materials Circulation Association, said in an interview that the purpose of "Five Articles of New China" is clear, that is, to curb the investment demand of housing and stabilize the just-needed housing price guarantee. On the one hand, it will inhibit the building materials industry; On the other hand, the "20%" tax rate of the New Deal greatly stimulated the second-hand housing transactions, which led to the short-term centralized release of a large number of houses, thus stimulating the decoration home market downstream of real estate in a short time.
Home improvement: rising against the market
On weekends, the roads near He Shili Building Materials Market in the South Third Ring Road are very congested. When reporters take a taxi, taxi drivers are generally reluctant to go to this "no one can go around" place. In fact, every season is the peak season of building materials and home furnishing market, but this year's peak season has come quickly.
According to the sales manager of a bathroom shop, after the Spring Festival last year, the building materials market will gradually usher in the peak season of sales, and the "May Day" will reach its climax. This year, this climax has been greatly advanced, especially since April, the passenger flow and sales volume have risen sharply and continue to rise rapidly. This "crowded scene has not been seen for many years."
Xiao Liu, the project manager of a decoration company, told reporters that the company's house testing (house testing before decoration) business has been fully booked, and employees have cancelled their rest days. Even so, some businesses have to be retired. Compared with the same period last year, the business volume increased by about 50%.
According to the website information of Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in March, the total number of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing reached 40,623, a year-on-year increase of nearly four times, a record high. Xiao Liu believes that the popularity of the decoration market is obviously related to the recent increase in the volume of second-hand housing transactions.
Xiao Liu told reporters that most of the increased business is "working in the city" and the new address is mostly in the suburbs. The work in these cities is basically the decoration of newly bought second-hand houses. Xiao Liu's point of view was also confirmed in a random interview with customers in the market. Among the 10 customers interviewed by the reporter, 6 bought second-hand houses in March and are ready for renovation.
Building materials enterprises also feel this warm current. Wang Manqiang, general manager of Foshan Emperor Sanitary Ware Co., Ltd. told the reporter that since March and April, temporary orders have increased substantially, because enterprises have long-term supply contracts and production plans, and the increased order volume has forced factories to work overtime to complete. "These are the surprises brought by the Five Articles of New China.
But for home building materials, there are not many real estate control policies that can "bring surprises". In fact, with the regulation policy of the real estate market, the home building materials industry has been in a downturn, and "wintering" and "severe cold" are often the most frequently used words in various building materials industry forums.
Qin Zhanxue also said that the temporary popularity cannot fundamentally reverse the downturn of the entire home building materials industry. "In the long run, the landing of the' New Five Articles' will lead to a wait-and-see mood in the real estate market. After a round of skyrocketing transactions, the second-hand housing market will also enter a downturn. This will have an adverse impact on the future home building materials market. " However, Qin Zhanxue also pointed out that because there will be a delayed process from buying a house to decoration, the market demand for home building materials will continue to be released in the next few months, and businesses should take active actions to seize this opportunity.
Building materials: cold noodles
The upstream of the real estate market, such as steel, cement, glass and other bulk building materials, is not as lucky as the downstream home building materials. The suppression of the "Five Articles of New China" on the real estate market is bound to be bad for the building materials market.
In fact, as early as the "Five Articles of New China" was just introduced, the policy had a great impact on bulk building materials products. The building materials industry, which has just bathed in the spring breeze of urbanization, has encountered a cold current. The most sensitive capital market bears the brunt and feels the coolness first.
On March 1 day, on the day of the implementation of "Five Articles of New China", individual stocks in the cement sector suffered heavy losses. Huaxin cement fell by 9.9 1%, Conch by 9.49%, East by 9.09%, Qilian by 9.09% and Jiangxi Cement by 9.07%.
The atmosphere of the steel market has suddenly changed. Steel prices have been rising continuously for years, but now they are turning around and "falling endlessly". Among them, the rebar futures price dropped from nearly 4,300 yuan/ton years ago, and even fell below the 4,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative decline of nearly 7%. At the same time, the social inventory of steel in China has also increased sharply again, and the total social inventory of steel in China has reached 20.38 million tons, a record high. According to market feedback, steel traders are generally pessimistic in the face of increasing inventory, sluggish steel market and light transactions. Some merchants said that "the newly released real estate control policy is likely to kill the rising expectation of Kaichun building materials in the cradle".
The same thing happened in the glass industry. For the glass industry, real estate demand accounts for more than 60% of its total demand, and the direction and intensity of real estate regulation will greatly affect the future glass price trend. In March, glass futures prices also began to show a downward trend. Main contract 1309 opening price 1580 yuan/ton, monthly highest price 158 1 yuan/ton, monthly lowest price 1409 yuan/ton and monthly closing price 1437 yuan/ton.
It is generally believed in the industry that as one of the futures products with the highest correlation with the real estate market, the main reason for the sharp drop in glass futures prices in March was the introduction of "Five Articles of New China". At the same time, the current high inventory of glass has also contributed to the decline.
Compared with the capital market, the reaction of the product market is relatively lagging behind. During the interview, the spot price did not change much. Cui, manager of the market supervision department of Tianjin CSG Engineering Glass Co., Ltd., told the reporter that the current glass market still continues the previous trend of steady decline, and the influence of "New China Five Articles" is not obvious.
Yin Hong, secretary general of Foshan Ceramic Association, told reporters that the promulgation of "Five Articles of New China" is not good news for the building materials industry. As an upstream industry closely related to the real estate industry, the overall demand of building materials industry has declined. "At present, the ceramic industry has responded, and enterprises have lowered their expected growth rate and reduced production pressure."
At the same time, Qin Zhanxue also pointed out that we should not be too pessimistic about the impact of the "Five Articles of New China" on the building materials industry. There are also some favorable factors at present. "Now no one can come to the conclusion. The pulling effect of urbanization is very good for the building materials industry, but its obvious effect may not appear until the second half of the year. " (According to China Real Estate News) Source Xinhua Real Estate)