New features of the global financial system
Through the analysis of American subprime mortgage crisis and global financial turmoil, we find that there are many new features in the world financial system, which need us to study and grasp.
The integrity of the financial system. The globalization of the world economy is first manifested in the internationalization of currency and the integration of financial system. Now, the integration of the global financial system has formed a new pattern of linkage and complementarity. If something goes wrong in one place, it will immediately cause a chain reaction. This requires us to grasp the situation and trend of the financial system as a whole, and not to look at economic problems in isolation and one-sidedly.
Liquidity of financial capital. The global financial capital is nearly1000 trillion US dollars, and the western developed countries have excess capital. About $8 trillion in liquidity is in the hands of some financial predators, who are looking for speculative opportunities around the world. One of them is a financial tycoon named Soros, who has hundreds of billions of dollars of "hot money" in his hand. 1997, he saw that the Asian financial market had just opened and was very fragile, so he went to the Thai financial market to stir it up and fled, which led to the devaluation of the Thai baht that day, which triggered financial risks throughout Southeast Asia, and China and Hong Kong also suffered greatly. If there is more international hot money, it will run around and drill in places with holes like rats, so we should pay more attention to safety after the financial system is opened. Now, several major financial crises were caused by international hot money speculation. For example, 1997 devaluation of the Thai baht triggered the financial risks in Southeast Asia, 1998 Russian financial crisis and 1999 financial turmoil in Brazil, all of which are the consequences of international hot money flows. In China, these international hot money will basically speculate in four "cities", and they are all very regular. The first step is to speculate in the futures market, raise prices through gambling and disrupt the national price system; The second step is to speculate in the stock market and bake it up, and there will be a "bubble" in the stock market. After reaching a high level, they will withdraw their funds and escape, trapping domestic investors and retail investors; The third step is to speculate in the real estate market and flee after forming a real estate "bubble"; There are also some experts who carry out the fourth step, that is, speculation in the foreign exchange market and making money from exchange rate fluctuations. These financial predators have made a fuss about the futures market, stock market, housing market and foreign exchange market, speculating to a certain extent, changing the money of ordinary people and investors into dollars, leaving behind a financial disaster, which has become a formula and basic law.
The fragility of the financial system. When something goes wrong in a certain link, it will immediately form a "butterfly" effect, and the whole financial system will have a chain reaction, because it is integrated and global, and this general trend cannot be contained. Although the subprime mortgage crisis itself is only a few hundred billion dollars, it has spread all over the world. China stock market is far from the United States, but it has also been affected. Shareholders are speculating about confidence and expectations. If confidence and expectations are gone, the stock market will fall badly. Now, the subprime mortgage crisis has spread rapidly, causing disaster, which is caused by the fragility and sensitivity of the global financial system.
The periodicity of financial fluctuations. The operation of the financial system is cyclical. Only by carefully understanding and grasping can we plan ahead and control the changes in financial situation. From studying Marx's Das Kapital, we know that capitalism has an economic crisis. During the crisis, there will be phenomena such as excessive milk pouring into the sea, unsalable products, factory closure, unemployment of workers, soaring prices and so on. This is the economic crisis in the primary stage of that era and the crisis of overproduction, which is the basic feature of the current crisis. Today, with the development of economy, economic globalization and capital internationalization have become a reality. No matter which country or place has an economic crisis, the financial crisis is the first manifestation, so financial security is very important. It is a new law of world capitalist economic crisis to change from overproduction crisis to financial crisis. After 30 years of reform and opening up in China, there have also been some cyclical laws, such as economic overheating, which basically occurs once every 8- 10 years. 1982- 1984, China's economy overheated for the first time and was rectified; 1994, the second economic overheating occurred, and the second rectification was carried out; At the end of 2006, the economy overheated for the third time. China's stock market is also changing periodically, with basically five bears and three bulls. It is dialectical that the stock market is "how long it is horizontally and how high it is vertically". What we need to master now is periodicity and accurately grasp the economic trends and laws, so as to plan ahead, improve our ability to control the market economy and remain invincible forever.
From the perspective of the United States, the advantages of market economy have two basic characteristics: first, optimize the allocation of resources with market laws and value laws to improve the efficiency of resource use. Second, diversification of property rights encourages competition and provides inexhaustible motive force for economic development. However, the market economy also has negative effects, and some problems will appear periodically. In the era of planned economy, the main danger of the economy was inflation, because it was a shortage economy at that time, demand was often in short supply, and prices would naturally rise. There are inflation and deflation in market economy, which appear alternately, but the main danger is deflation, that is, overproduction, low price and insufficient consumption. 1998-2005, China experienced deflation for eight years, and the economy paid a huge price for it. At present, China is once again carrying out macro-control to prevent inflation, but we should pay attention to the rhythm and intensity of the control, focusing on braking, not sudden braking, which will easily lead to rollover. If monetary policy is excessively tightened for a long time, China may fall into deflation again by the end of 2009, and its economy will not develop greatly in five years. You can't expand as soon as you put it, but contract as soon as you tighten it. In recent years, China has been following this path repeatedly. Now we should pay attention to mastering the intensity of regulation. If deflation of 1998 occurs again, it will be difficult for our country, because our population base is too large and there are many vulnerable groups. Unless the economy develops to a certain speed, it will be difficult to maintain employment and stability, which is determined by our special national conditions.