Copper prices are expected to rebound in 2009. Since September, copper prices have fallen sharply, with a drop of 50% in the last three months. The current price is $3,700 per ton. Click: 17 reply: 0 view all | only see the release of the landlord wluietg on 2008-12-12 22: 08: 55. Copper prices are expected to rebound in 2009. Copper prices have plummeted since September, falling by 50% in the last three months, and the current price is $3,700 per ton. According to the report of International Copper Research Organization, the output surplus in the first eight months of 2008 was 75,000 tons (compared with 22,000 tons in the first eight months of 2007). On the demand side, among the four major copper markets, only China experienced a strong growth of 13% in the first eight months of 2008, while the European Union 15 countries, Japan and the United States experienced negative growth of 5%, 1% and 9% respectively. International copper price forecast for the second half of 2009 2009-03-2 1 2 1:54 According to the latest forecast of Barclays Capital, the investment department of Barclays Bank, the international copper price may fall to a low of $3,000 per ton in the next few months, but it is expected to rebound effectively in the second half of this year.

Barclays Capital said in a recent report that the spot price of copper may rise to $4,200 per ton in the second quarter of this year, and further rise to $4,500 in the fourth quarter. The annual average price may be around $3,900 per ton.

Barclays Capital believes that the current global copper inventory will remain at a high level, and it is difficult to fall back in a short time. The rebound in copper prices will mainly benefit from the economic recovery and demand rebound in emerging economies. The agency predicts that the economic growth of emerging economies may start to rebound strongly in the second half of this year. However, the fundamentals of the global economy are very fragile this year, and the economies of the United States, Europe and Japan will not recover effectively until next year, which determines that global copper consumption cannot increase substantially.

However, the recent rebound in copper prices is obvious, mainly because investors such as hedge funds take the opportunity to bargain-hunting, and this rebound will not last long. During the three trading days from February 10 to February 12, copper prices fell sharply again. Although the United States has introduced huge revised economic stimulus measures and bank rescue plans, investors have reacted coldly because they have doubts about the feasibility of these measures.

Weak demand led to a rapid rise in copper inventories. In June this year, the global copper inventory reached 276,000 tons. Generally speaking, a part of the inventory is held by miners, and a considerable part is placed in the delivery warehouse of the exchange. At present, the total copper inventory of all futures exchanges in the world has risen to a high level of164,000 tons.

In the first quarter of this year, both developed and emerging economies will face severe challenges, and the global economy will shrink severely or even fall into recession. To this end, the growth rate of global copper inventory will accelerate during this period, while the growth rate of demand will fall into a trough. According to the forecast of Standard Chartered Bank, the global copper supply this year is about 1, 846,5438+0,000 tons, and the total demand is 1, 800 tons. The situation of oversupply will continue.