Buffett estimates that he will never dare to rely on the old and sell the old. Trump estimates that he will never dare to blow him to bring a bull market. In March 18, US stocks blew up again.
You know, in American history, it was played five times. The first time was in 1997, the year when Hong Kong returned to China.
But in the past two weeks, we have witnessed the remaining four times.
That's right. Four times in two weeks.
We are all witnessing unprecedented history, how lucky and unfortunate!
In these two weeks, the bull market in the United States 1 1, the longest bull market in American history, and Trump's favorite bull market came to an end.
Counting, after another plunge in March 18, all the gains since Trump took office fell to the level before taking office. Looking at the curve, the increase is hard in three years and thin in a few days. To make matters worse, Wall Street is still in free fall.
This situation makes Warren Buffett, who has experienced many ups and downs, deeply moved: he has lived for 89 years and has never seen such a scene.
But now he has to change his tune. There is a joke that says:
On March 8, Buffett: I lived to be 89 years old and only saw the US stock market melt once.
On March 9, Buffett: I lived to be 89 years old, and I have only seen the US stock market fuse twice.
March 12 Buffett: I lived to be 89 years old, and I have only seen the US stock market fuse three times.
March 16 Buffett: I lived to be 89 years old, and I have only seen the US stock market fuse four times.
March 18 Buffett: I am too young. ...
You know, the day before March 16, in order to boost the American economy, the Federal Reserve made an epic interest rate cut, cutting interest rates by 100 basis point, directly reaching zero interest rate, and launched a quantitative easing program of $700 billion.
The last time I did this, it was the 2008 international financial crisis. But even with such efforts, Wall Street collapsed. A friend quipped:
On March 17, in order to save the American economy, Trump launched a package of 1 trillion dollars, including 500 billion to 550 billion dollars for direct cash payment or tax reduction.
The next day, US stocks plunged again.
The reason is still the same. In the words of a friend:
U.s. stocks plummeted and crude oil bled heavily.
Also on March 18, crude oil in new york market plummeted by 24.4%, and now it is $20.37 per barrel, the lowest since February 2002.
You know, just two weeks ago, the international oil price was nearly $50 a barrel. Now, it is even lower than in the 2008 international financial crisis.
For some countries, this is a nightmare; For some countries, this is not necessarily bad.
In any case, this is a thrilling reality. We have witnessed history with Buffett, and Trump should take a breath.
What should we do?
Scold the Federal Reserve? The Fed pumped milk with all its might and shot all the bullets.
Scold the local government? States in the United States were angry and cursed the bureaucrats in Washington for killing people.
Scold the American people? The eyes of the masses are discerning, and they are all swearing that the Trump administration is too slow and too bad.
So, we can see that Trump has used the word "China virus" again and again recently. This is a naked attack. I used to be a general official in the United States, but now I go directly to the president. This is also the first leader of all world powers to deliberately discredit.
Even though the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has made it clear that such discriminatory provisions are very inappropriate; Even some American media believe that behind this wording is naked racism.
But the grand marshal doesn't care!
Speculation about populism is exactly what some people are good at. If you don't pass it on, how can you pass the buck?
Times have changed.
What makes Trump even more embarrassed is that the US stock market has fallen into a dog, allowing Wall Street to close the trading hall; If we follow the past practice and take the China stock market as the skeleton, wouldn't it fall apart? But in recent days, the situation is just the opposite.
Anyway, on March 9, US stocks melted; On March 10, the China stock market rose sharply.
In March 16, US stocks melted again; The next day, the Shanghai Composite Index only fell slightly by 0.34%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index also rose by 0.36%. You know, the Dow Jones index fell by 2997. 10 points the day before, which is an unprecedented decline of 12.93%.
March 18, after the fifth fuse of US stocks; At least according to the futures index, the China stock market rose.
International practice is no longer a practice.
In the global crash, China stepped out of the independent market for the first time.
Why is this happening? I mentioned this joke many times:
Well, the analysis is so reasonable that I can't refute it. ...
This is really not just a joke.
The epidemic situation is changing rapidly. We must know that there are now more than 200,000 confirmed cases in the world, most of which are abroad; More new cases in China are also imported cases; However, overseas, such as the United States, Britain and many other countries, are still on the eve of the outbreak.
More importantly, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the pace of China's resumption of work and production is accelerating, and the floating China will be resurrected with blood. With such a contrast, it is no wonder that Morgan Stanley issued a proposal to increase its holdings of China Stock Exchange as soon as possible. China Stock Exchange is a good hedging asset.
In this world, one step is not wrong.
Because there were mistakes in the early stage, I experienced a tragic drama that I can never forget, and I must deeply reflect on it. Finally, the response was timely and decisive, and we ushered in a new situation. The world has also seen China's strength and strong mobility; The positive progress made in China has given confidence to other countries in the world to overcome the epidemic.
Of course, the China stock market should live up to expectations and continue to strengthen! Can no longer be like the national football team.
The international financial crisis in 2008 profoundly changed the world pattern. 12 years later, a new crisis is causing a new big fission in the world pattern.
This is really a great change that has never happened in a hundred years!
Virus is the enemy of human beings, and prejudice is more terrible than epidemic situation. Sadly, however, some countries inadvertently missed the time window that China paid a huge price for, and now they are still trying to pass on contradictions through various means. Ignorance is not an obstacle to survival, but arrogance is.
But viruses can't be hidden. When the epidemic strikes, Americans must be fully prepared.
Many shelves in American supermarkets are empty, especially toilet paper; People without masks are lining up to sweep the goods.
Americans lack toilet paper gap covers. According to media reports, the US government exempted some masks from customs duties from China. No way, when the epidemic struck, Americans realized that it was so important to make masks in China. More than 90% of masks in the United States come from China.
When you are not needed, the tariff will be adjusted to death; When you are needed, the tariff will be reduced immediately. However, masks are now strategic goods, and many countries, such as Germany and Russia, prohibit their export.
China, do you want to sell it?
Trump should be very anxious now. On March 16, 50 minutes before the opening of Wall Street, he sent a meaningful sentence on social media: "God bless America! )"
As a result, it exploded as soon as it opened, and then there was an unprecedented plunge.
After March 18, there was another historic plunge. After three years in power, all the gains fell back in a few days. But what is rare is that Trump does not talk about happiness this time, nor does he mention the stock market.
The world has really changed!
We are witnessing the most thrilling historical period in our lives.