Pig prices are caught in a dilemma, and the situation in the north and south markets is slightly "rising south and falling north". Admittedly, this trend is more in line with the current environment.
Considering that the south is the main selling area, the "first wave" has passed after the release of prevention and control, and the pig transportation is affected by external weather factors, while the north is the main producing area, which is still in the "cold period" after the release of prevention and control. It is difficult to transport pigs due to external weather factors, and the market is slightly "rising south and falling north".
Looking back, since mid-April, the price of pigs has risen rapidly. Even if there is a callback in the middle, it will not change the upward trend. By the end of 10, it has reached more than 14 yuan/kg, which really makes farmers happy.
However, this "abnormal" rise has also laid a hidden danger for the subsequent "plunge", especially the phenomenon of blindly pressing the market and secondary fattening.
I think it can go up again when it is time to go up, which makes the pigs that should be slaughtered in the early stage stay until June 5438+February. Under the background of accelerating slaughter at the end of the year and leading slaughter at the end of the year, the amount of pigs slaughtered at the end of the year increased greatly, and the market appeared "staged surplus".
When expectations fail, market sentiment will also change. Previously, the innovation of pig futures was low, and then the seasonal demand was sluggish, and the support for pig price increase was weak.
Especially after the implementation of the new prevention and control policy, not only did it not make the market consumer side pick up, but it hindered the sharp decline in market demand when "colds" occurred frequently.
Under the background of accelerating the slaughter of large pig enterprises, the panic at the breeding end appeared one after another, and the market set off a wave of panic "selling tide", so the second brother had to let nature take its course and plunged all the way.
In the face of the rapid decline in domestic pig prices, the National Development and Reform Commission recently announced that it attaches great importance to the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in the pig market, and will continue to pay close attention to market supply and demand and price dynamics, and take reserve adjustment measures such as purchasing and storage when necessary to promote the long-term healthy development of the pig market.
In addition, it is officially announced that during the Spring Festival on New Year's Day, when the demand for pork increases, all localities will release frozen pork to the market in time to ease the market pressure and achieve the role of "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" in the pork market.
As a result, the official dilemma is also revealed. On the one hand, we hope to see the price of pork more affordable, on the other hand, we don't want to see the price of live pigs drop too much, which will affect the economic benefits of farmers, so we should weigh it appropriately.
Generally speaking, the short-term "cold problem" is only a temporary problem, which makes everyone's catering consumption at a low level. At present, there is no large-scale stocking, but short-term stocking has appeared in some areas.
As the "two festivals" approach, the market demand for pork is expected to gradually pick up. Under the background of slaughter enterprises increasing fresh pork reserves, it is not excluded that pig prices rebounded slightly during the "two festivals".
At the same time, with the end of the month and the end of the year approaching, the "supply and demand pattern" of the market may change, and whether the demand for closing the column can effectively recover to support the short-term expected improvement will lead to a rebound in pig prices. We will wait and see.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 10, and fell by five levels, and the falling areas accounted for 42% of all monitored areas.
The average price of live pigs monitored nationwide was the lowest 8.06 yuan/kg, the highest 8.32 yuan/kg, and the overall average price of live pigs was 8. 19 yuan/kg, which was 0.02 yuan/kg lower than the national average price yesterday. Today, the overall price of live pigs shows a trend of "shock adjustment".
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises in the northern region is weak, and many enterprises have some phenomenon of stopping planning. Farmers have different enthusiasm for slaughter, some areas are relatively active, and some areas still have the mood of reducing prices and not selling.
It is generally difficult to slaughter pigs in the south, because the local group pig farms have a certain willingness to raise prices, but the slaughter enthusiasm is better.
The bidding enthusiasm of leading group traders has weakened, the pig price of group pig farms has declined, the pig price of group pig farms has declined, and the traders' enthusiasm for receiving goods is average.
The ex-factory price of white-striped pigs in northeast slaughter enterprises decreased by 500- 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of white-striped pigs in Shandong slaughter enterprises remained stable.
Forecast of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the recent analysis of pig market factors, the market sentiment is divided and the bearish phenomenon is slightly increased. It is expected that the pig price will show a "weak shock" trend tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the pig market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share, and raise pigs to make a fortune.