Theoretical basis of hedging: the trend of spot and futures markets is similar (under normal market conditions), because these two markets are affected by the same supply and demand relationship, and their prices rise and fall together; However, due to the opposite operation of these two markets, the profit and loss are also opposite, and the profit of the futures market can make up for the loss of the spot market.
Example of soybean hedging case selling hedging: (This example is only used to illustrate the hedging principle, and the transaction fee, position fee and delivery fee should be considered in the specific operation. ) futures market
In July, the spot price of soybean was 20 10 yuan per ton. A farm is satisfied with the price, but soybeans will not be sold until September, so the unit is worried that the spot price may fall by then, thus reducing its income. In order to avoid the risk of future price decline, the farm decided to trade soybean futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange. The trading situation is as follows: spot market futures market, soybean price in July was 20 10 yuan/ton, and sold 10 lot. September soybean contract: price 2080 yuan/ton, sold 100 ton September soybean: price 1980 yuan/ton.
Arbitrage result loss 30 yuan/ton profit 30 yuan/ton final result net profit 100*30- 100*30=0 yuan Note: 1 hand = 10 ton From this example, we can draw the following conclusions: First, completely selling hedging actually involves two futures transactions. The first is to sell futures contracts, and the second is to sell the spot in the spot market and buy the original position in the futures market. Second, because the trading order in the futures market is to sell first and then buy, this example is selling hedging. Third, through this set of hedging transactions, although the spot market price has changed adversely to farms, the price has dropped by 30 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss of 3,000 yuan; However, trading in the futures market made a profit of 3,000 yuan, eliminating the impact of adverse price changes. future
Example of hedging: In September, an oil factory expected to need raw soybean1100t in October. At that time, the spot price of soybean was 20 10 yuan per ton, and the oil factory was satisfied with the price. It is predicted that the soybean price may increase by 5438+065438+ 10 in June. Therefore, in order to avoid the risk of rising raw material costs caused by future price increases, the oil factory decided to conduct soybean hedging transactions on Dalian Commodity Exchange. The trading situation is as follows: spot market futures market hedging
In September, the soybean price was 20 10 yuan/ton, and the purchase price was 10 lot 165438+ 10 month. Soybean contract: the price was 2090 yuan/ton 165438+ 10 month, and the purchase price was. Second, because the trading order in the futures market is to buy first and then sell, this example is buying hedging. Third, through this set of hedging transactions, although the spot market price has changed adversely to the oil plant, the price has increased by 40 yuan/ton, so the cost of raw materials has increased by 4,000 yuan; However, the trading in the futures market made a profit of 4,000 yuan, thus eliminating the impact of adverse price changes. If the oil factory does not hedge, he can get cheaper raw materials when the spot market price falls, but once the spot market price rises, he must bear the losses caused by it. On the contrary, he hedged in the futures market, although he lost the profit of favorable changes in the spot market price, but he also avoided the loss of unfavorable changes in the spot market price. Therefore, it can be said that buying hedging avoids the risk of price changes in the spot market.