According to the latest report of Commodity Futures Trading Commission, financial derivatives have reduced the trading positions of short futures and options to the lowest level since March 20021year. The net short position of daily blocks dropped to about 23,000 lots, less than one third of the highest value. In the summer when the trading volume was relatively weak, the short position of the yen decreased rapidly, which pushed the yen to appreciate by about 4.5% against the US dollar in the past seven days. In the middle and late July, the yen once fell to 139 against the US dollar. Stephen Gallo, head of European foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said, "For some time, shorting the yen has been one of the largest G 10 foreign exchange positions held by financial derivatives, and it is very vulnerable to shorting. Last week, this kind of rolling finally appeared. "
The meeting of the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise interest rates by 75 basis points, and Jerome declared that "it is appropriate to slow down the pace of raising interest rates in a certain period in the near future", which was interpreted by the market as a "dove" data signal, which lowered the expectation of the radicals at the meeting of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and the annual interest rate of their terminal equipment. Then, in the second quarter, foreign GDP contracted for two consecutive months, further aggravating the market's dissatisfaction with the US economic recession and speculation that the Fed meeting may not be able to continue to raise interest rates aggressively. This touched the short selling of the Japanese plate.
Mazen Issa, the most senior foreign exchange trading investment analyst of TD Securities in new york, said: "The weak GDP data clearly shows that the US economy is slowing down. For us, inflation will slow down with growth. Once this happens, the sales market will see the end of the tightening cycle, which will be a key risk for the US dollar against the Japanese yen, because it is a foreign exchange currency that is closer to tracking US inflation and annual interest rate expectations. "
Mayank Mishra, global monetary and macroeconomic investment analyst of Bank of East Asia, Malaysia, also said: "For us, the highest regularity of the yield difference between the US dollar and the Japanese yen and the US-Japan government bonds may have appeared before. At this stage, the inflation-adjusted yield difference between the United States and Japan has narrowed, and the difference between the actual yield of US Treasury bonds with a maturity of 10 and the interest rate of Japanese government bonds with a maturity of 10 has narrowed from 1.5% in the middle and late period to 0.80%. " He predicted that this foreign exchange currency will be close to the mark of 130.