Ups and downs, leaving a pig hair.
Wang Xiao, the strategy of a China businessman.
Blame the cycle when it goes up, and blame the cycle when it goes down. Why is it so difficult to eat a portion of pork quietly? !
Pork is not free.
"The pig industry will have overcapacity in the future, or it will face extinction."
Tao Yishan, chairman of Tang Renshen, said in an interview last August. At that time, the market predicted that the domestic pork price would fall to 10 yuan/kg in 2022, and he was pessimistic. "It is entirely possible that the price of meat will fall from 4 yuan to 5 yuan."
This assertion was ridiculed and questioned by the group at that time: "Are you kidding! People with this judgment must not go to the vegetable market. In the era of durian breaking a hundred, it is impossible for pork to break a hundred. Reducing prices is a good thing, but it always feels alarmist.
You know, since the second half of 2022, pork prices have been rising all the way. In just a few months, it rose from ten yuan to thirty or forty yuan, and broke through 50 yuan by the end of the year. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the pork market price reached 50.49 yuan/kg in June 2022, up 1 14.4% year-on-year.
However, things are unpredictable, and the turning point comes so quickly.
Since 2022, the price of pigs has been falling all the way. The data shows that the current price of live pigs is 15.8 yuan/kg, which has dropped by nearly 60% compared with 36.8 yuan/kg of165438+ at the beginning of October. According to the institutional monitoring data, on June 18, the province with lower pig price in China was 6.2-6.7 yuan/kg, approaching 5 yuan.
▲ Pig price trend (external three yuan): China raises pigs.
Synchronized with the spot market, the main contract of pig futures also hit a new low continuously.
The main contract of live pig futures of Dashang Institute was as low as 18550 yuan/ton on June 5, a new low since listing. Compared with the historical high of 30680 yuan/ton, in just a few months, the bigger decline is close to 40%.
The price of pigs has been falling endlessly, and even they are in a hurry and have to sell.
On June 9, the five departments jointly issued the Work Plan for Improving the Regulation Mechanism of Pork Reserve and Keeping the Supply and Price Stable in the Pork Market. The "Pre-plan" emphasizes the establishment of an early warning mechanism, and timely start countermeasures such as reserve release and temporary storage according to different early warning situations and places.
Just one week later, the early warning of excessive drop in pig prices was issued again, prompting farms (households) to scientifically arrange production and management decisions and keep the pig production capacity at a reasonable level.
If you can't afford to go up, you have to worry about not being too cheap. Why is the price of pigs so touching?
get into trouble
How much do people in China love pork? Look at these data, it may break through your imagination:
According to American data, in 2022, the global production of pork was 97.875 million tons, of which China produced 41130,000 tons, accounting for 42%, ranking first in the world. At the same time, in 2022, China people will consume 54,565,438+8,000 tons of pork, which means that the pork produced in China cannot meet the demand and needs to be imported to make up for it.
The China agricultural outlook Report (2022-2029) released in April 2022 shows that the annual per capita pork consumption in China is about 32kg, and it is expected to reach 42kg in 2029.
According to the average weight of a 200 kg commercial pig, this means that three people in China eat almost one pig a year.
▲ Information: China Statistical Yearbook.
With our joint efforts, pork has made us a trillion-dollar supermarket.
When the scale is large, the impact will naturally be great.
In the past few years, China has been under the pressure of soaring pork prices. The high price makes people lose the freedom of pork and raises the overall price level.
As an important part of CPI (Consumer Price Index) basket, the fluctuation of pork price has obvious influence on the overall price level. For example, in 2022, the price of pigs rose, and the weight of pork in CPI increased accordingly. Since the beginning of this year, the price of pigs has decreased, and the weight has also decreased, but they are basically above 2%.
The decline in pig prices is good for consumers, but not necessarily from the economic and long-term effects.
According to the survey data of New Pig School, at present, more than 70% farmers in China are losing money. Based on the current average weight of commercial pigs, nearly 40% of farmers lost more than 400 yuan when selling a pig, and more than 10% of farmers lost more than 800 yuan.
Normal market price adjustment and industrial survival of the fittest are actually normal, and the key lies in its subsequent influence.
According to Zhuo Chuang information data, at present, the cost of most aquaculture enterprises is above 18 yuan/kg, and the cost of individual scale enterprises can be reduced to 16.5 yuan-18 yuan. The retail cost is relatively low, but it should be around 15 yuan-16 yuan.
If it continues to decline at this rate, it may fall below the cost line and put pressure on the whole pig breeding industry.
"Last year, a pig earned 1000 yuan, let alone make money this year. Some pigs will lose money if they are late. " A friend said that his parents are farmers, and it is time for the pigs to go out of the market to catch up with this decline. At the beginning, the purchase price of piglets was very high, which led to the more you raise now, the more you owe.
Pork prices continue to fall, and the farming business is getting worse and worse. Some enterprises and retail investors have no choice but to accelerate their withdrawal. In the short term, the market supply will be greatly reduced, and the price will rebound again when the supply exceeds the demand. The final result still needs to be borne by consumers.
This is also the reason why the price of pigs has fallen too fast and they are eager to sell.
Under the loss of the industry, the pig cycle that can't be bypassed has been mentioned again.
Under normal circumstances, it usually takes 6 months to 9 months to raise pigs in pens. The cyclical characteristics determine that the pig industry cannot be configured according to the current market changes. When the price is high, it may not be sold, and when it can be sold, the price may not be good. The lag of information acquisition increases the volatility of the market.
But if we look back at the previous pig cycle, we will find that:
The sharp rise in pork prices in each round is mostly caused by abnormal reasons. For example, pork prices soared from the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2022, mainly because of the special situation and epidemic situation of African pigs. In addition, in some places, under the pressure of environmental protection, the human factors of strict pig ban have also reduced the pork production capacity and increased the price in a short period of time.
Every round of sharp reduction in pork prices is an adjustment in which the market returns to normal. For example, since 2022, the price of pigs has been continuously lowered, mainly due to overcapacity and oversupply. Simply put, the amount of pig slaughter has risen sharply. According to the reporter's recent understanding, the number of live pigs slaughtered in Hunan, Liaoning and other provinces increased by over 30% year-on-year.
The pig cycle seems invincible, but it has its own rules after all. At present, the domestic pig price has obviously gone beyond the normal range, which is the result of the joint action of human factors and irrational investment.
The profiteering will end.
From June 5438 to February 2022, at the annual meeting of business leaders in China, Wang Shi, the founder of Vanke, asked the chairman of New Hope: "Did you make a lot of money this year?"
"The benefits are good, more than the same period last year. It's no problem to invite you to dinner. "
Four brothers started from pig feed, and it took only seven years from the establishment of New Hope to becoming the richest man in China.
▲1Liu four brothers in the 1990s.
During the rising period of pig price in 2022, the operating income of new hope pig breeding reached 7.487 billion yuan, an increase of about132%; The gross profit was 2.885 billion yuan, an increase of about 45 1%, which was equivalent to the profit of one pig selling four pigs in the previous year.
This data will continue to rise in 2022. New Hope * * * sold 8,292,500 live pigs, up186% year-on-year; Realized an operating income of 24.777 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 231%; Gross profit was 5,736,543.8 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 100%.
Qin Yinglin, who dreamed of raising pigs when he was young, led Mu Yuan to go public in 2022, when Qin Yinglin and his wife Qian Ying were worth 8 billion. At that time, some people said that it was incredible that a pig farmer could raise 8 billion net worth.
But many people didn't expect that the really incredible is yet to come.
In 2022, the sales volume of live pigs in Mu Yuan Stock Company decreased from11102533 million yuan in the previous year, but the income increased from13.38 million yuan to 2.02/kloc-0 million yuan.
In 20221October 7th 165438, Qin Yinglin's family was among the top ten richest people in China with a net worth of1173.8 billion yuan. It is worth noting that, at that time, except for Qin Yinglin's pig breeding industry, the rest were related to the real estate industry.
In 2022, Mu Yuan shares continued to grow at a high speed, with annual revenue increasing by178.38+0%; The net profit of returning to the mother increased by 348.97% year-on-year.
However, in just a few months, the pig industry has undergone earth-shaking changes.
In the first five months of this year, the price of new hope commercial pigs dropped from 30.52 yuan/kg to 18.46 yuan/kg, a decrease of nearly 40%. The first quarterly report of New Hope shows that during the period, the company achieved operating income of 29.238 billion yuan, up 42.15% year-on-year; The net profit was 65.438+0.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 96.5438+0.59%.
In May, the sales volume of commercial pigs in Mu Yuan Stock Company was 17.65 yuan/kg, down 32.63% year-on-year. Straight flush data shows that Muyuan's share price dropped by more than 38% in four months from a high of 92.53 yuan in February this year to a closing price of 57. 15 yuan on June 8, and its market value evaporated by over14 billion yuan.
In March of this year, Muyuan's financial data was questioned, which triggered a letter from Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Not long ago, because it issued convertible bonds, the chairman of the company was taken to talk.
Other pig breeding enterprises, such as Shi Wen, Tianbang and Zhengbang Technology, performed poorly in the first quarter of this year.
The total revenue of Wen's shares was1681600 million yuan, down 3.6% compared with the same period of last year, and the net profit was 544 million yuan, down 7 1.28% compared with the same period of last year. Tianbang's total revenue was 3.4/kloc-0.0 billion, up 80.6% year-on-year, and its net profit was 200 million, down 59% year-on-year. Zhengbang Technology's total revenue was 127. 1 billion, up 78 1% year on year, and its net profit was 2 1 billion, down 76.6% year on year.
Mu Yuan recently admitted that "at present, some high-cost enterprises have fallen into deep losses". According to the insiders, if it continues to decline, more pig enterprises will lose money or even go out.
From the "profiteering era" to the "huge loss vortex", the story of the industry's wealth creation and collapse, like the cyclical characteristics of this industry, is often only a few months.
Does anyone remember the young eagle farm? This company, known as "one of the pig companies in China", used to be more beautiful. On 20 10, Young Eagle Farming was listed on the small and medium-sized board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, four years earlier than Mu Yuan and five years earlier than Shi Wen, with a total market value exceeding 7 billion yuan. Chairman Hou became the richest man in Henan that year.
However, since 2022, Hou's wealth has been shrinking, and it seems that other peers have done well.
In 2022, the Hurun Rich List was worth 20.5 billion yuan and 9 billion yuan. In 2022, and worth 25.5 billion, and then only 7 billion.
In 2022 and 2024, Hou's name disappeared from the Hurun list. Even if the pig price entered the rising cycle in 2022, it could not save the young eagle from farming and animal husbandry. On the contrary, because they couldn't afford to buy feed, they starved more than 2 million pigs and boarded the hot search.
According to media reports, after the pork price plummeted this year, the problem of young eagle farming and animal husbandry became more prominent. In early February, the subsidiary was integrated to reduce the debt ratio of enterprises through bankruptcy. However, at present, there are still more than 700 million yuan of debts for young eagle farming and animal husbandry to repay.
China pig industry has created too many wealth stories, and occasionally staged a big drama of skyrocketing and plunging, and people who constantly want to make quick money accelerated their admission; At the same time, enterprises that have become giants are constantly expanding in order to consolidate their position and expand their market share.
However, the skyrocketing is a flash in the pan, and it can't be met; The decline is a return to normal and irreversible in the short term. In this context, the shortage of supply quickly turned into oversupply, and chasing up quickly turned into killing down.
In 2022 and 2022, capital rushed in, which set off a hot cross-border pig raising tide. Now, it seems that the pig price has been falling all the way, and all the new players have lost the news.
Recently, some enterprises and farmers seem to see the hope of a rebound in pork prices.
But the fact is that the relevant departments have repeatedly said that the current pork price adjustment is a rational return after the skyrocketing. Therefore, if we expect pork prices to rise sharply again, we should give up this idea as soon as possible.
The proposed early warning library will not start until it enters the first-level early warning interval. Moreover, the purpose of purchasing and storing is only to help farmers when the supply exceeds demand and the price is too low, and to stabilize the price of pigs when the price rises too fast, so that consumers can afford pork, which will not bring about an increase in pork prices.
On may 2 1, Mu Yuan said at the 2022 annual general meeting of shareholders that "although the price may rebound seasonally in the future, the price of live pigs generally shows a downward trend ... this industry should be prepared for the arrival of winter".
The pig industry seems to have a low threshold, but it is actually an industry with relatively intensive capital and technology. Seven years ago, Wang Jianlin, chairman of Wanda Group, wanted to build a super-large pig farm with 300,000 heads in Guizhou. When he heard that the project budget was several hundred million, he immediately decided to give up:
"How much does it cost to build a five-star hotel? ! "
When there is excess capacity, it is a long process for the market to adjust the capacity. Those who can survive the market test must not be impulsive followers.
"Don't panic, let alone arrange production with a mentality." China Animal Husbandry Association recently issued an initiative.
Industrial intensification is the general trend. Only with fewer followers, stable expectations and stable prices can we stop the "heartbeat" industry of raising pigs and eat pork regardless of the cycle.
reference data
[1] "Meat price 10 yuan, how many followers will cry in the pigsty?" China Business Strategy: Leng Siqing
[2] "Is the pig cycle coming?" Pig hair "Muyuan shares have shrunk 1000 billion since the Spring Festival. Company response: Prepare for the winter.
[3] "Warning! Pork prices continue to fall, and the number of live pigs has dropped by 40% this year.
[4] "Is the pig price dangerous? Less than a catty, 8 yuan! Muyuan shares cost line broken, Southern Metropolis Daily.
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