Cotton futures around 20 10, cotton futures patterns around 20 10, and the background of cotton futures rising in the first and second half of 20 10:
(1) The American economic crisis has gradually eased.
(2) China's 4 trillion economic stimulus plan.
(3) The output decreased slightly.
(4) consumption has increased substantially.
(5) Reduce inventory.
(6) Long-term technical sideways, with the time span exceeding 10 years.
(7) Excessive currency and loose policies.
The theoretical basis of the sharp rise of cotton futures around the end of 20021year: crop cycle, generally short cycle of 3 years, medium cycle of 6 years, large cycle of 9 years, super cycle of 12 years. This round of cotton has basically risen to 12 years since last time, which is in line with the cycle theory.
First, the current situation of cotton
1. The last great economic crisis eased, but this extraordinary epidemic turned from bad to safe, which also caused the economic downturn. Due to the vaccine and epidemic cycle, the economic recovery is obvious. The economic downturn caused by the epidemic has not hurt the specific infrastructure and hardware foundation. The economy is on the rise. At the same time, the global monetary easing policy, the super QE plan of the United States, and the global super-currency have surpassed historical extremes, and the inflation foundation is solid. The technical side has been sideways for a long time and has not risen for about 12 years. Cotton is one of the varieties with serious stagflation, and there is a saying in the technical field that "how long it is horizontally and how high it is vertically".
2. Theoretically, it is expected to break through the expectation of the highest price in history. The highest point in the United States is 186.70, and the highest point in China is 33692. At present, the latest price in the United States is 95. 14, and that in China is 17885. China plans to dump 600,000 tons. On September 24th, 20021year, all the original planned quantities were dumped, and all the daily dumping transactions were 100%, which is rare in history.
3. Planting area: 202 1, with a year-on-year decrease of 7% and a month-on-month decrease of 32 1.9 million mu in China. The United States 202 1 decreased by 3%. If it is compared with 20 19, it all drops by about 10%. USDA estimated that the output of new cotton in China in 202122 was 5.823 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 599,000 tons. The consumption was adjusted from 2 1.8 million tons to 8.926 million tons, and the gap between production and demand reached 3 1.2 million tons, an increase of 820,000 tons from the previous month. USDA predicts that global consumption will increase by more than 980,000 tons, and futures inventory will decrease by 6.5438+0.006 million tons.
4. Cost: 202 1 year, the land rent increased by one mu around 300 yuan, and in 2022, it increased by 300- one mu around 500 yuan. A ton of lint needs about 2.5-3.5 tons of seed cotton, and the lint percentage is about 0.4. An acre of Xinjiang cotton is generally around 450 kg, and the land is poor or affected by disasters is less than 400 kg. In many places in the mainland, the yield per mu is around 200 Jin.