2011February 15 corn seed price National corn purchase price Northeast corn price Heilongjiang Harbin Feed Factory Medium corn purchase price 1840 yuan/ton, moisture11February/kloc. Delivery price of second-grade corn in taonan city, Jilin 1850.00 yuan/ton; delivery price of second-grade corn in Jin Kui, Jilin 1850.00 yuan/ton; price of Shandong corn; purchase price of Heze: 2070 yuan/ton; corn in Zhaodong, Suihua 1.59 yuan/kg; corn in Jiamusi: 2.00 yuan/kg; corn in suifenhe city, Mudanjiang1kg. Kloc-0/.56 yuan/Jin Xuan Ying Alcohol Corn 1.09 0 Deduction 3 Shouguang Zhonghui Corn 1 .05020 1 February1Beigang Flat Price [2 1 17.5]. 5. Flat cabin price of Beigang [middle 100 yuan/ton corn in Boli County, Suihua City 1.66 yuan/kg corn in Zhaodong City, Suihua City 1.50 yuan/kg corn in Tailai County, Qiqihar City 1.50 yuan/kg corn in Suibin County, Hegang Province1. February 65,433,090 yuan/ton of gannan county corn in Qiqihar 1.50 yuan/kg Tahe corn in Daxing 'anling 1.60 yuan/kg Huma corn in Daxing 'anling 1.80 yuan/kg Ning 'an corn in Mudanjiang 1.56 yuan/kg Mudanjiang corn/kloc-0. Kloc-0/February 6 860 yuan/Ton 2011February 15 Bayuquan Flat Price [21/Kloc-0] Corn in Huma County, Daxinganling 1.80 yuan/kg Hulin, Jixi City. Kg Boxing Xiangchi Corn 1.06 +0.007 Wang Xi Group Corn 1.0 1 moisture 14% Zouping Huayi Corn1.065+0.01.65438%. Fuyuan corn 1.03 +0.0 1 moisture 14% medium starch sugar corn 1.0 1 moisture 14% sheep's mouth alcohol corn1.050 20 040 yuan/ton 20 11February 15 Shandong purchase price Heze purchase price 2 120 yuan/ton Mudanjiang suifenhe city corn 1.50 yuan/kg Shandong corn price Jining purchase price 2070 yuan/ton Shandong corn price 2080 yuan/ton Laoting County, Tangshan, Hebei Province. 42020 Wujin district corn price corn (2464, 0.00, 0.00%) spot tends to rise, which supports the disk surface, leading to corn rising all the way after the holiday, and even corn continues to be relatively strong after hitting a record high last Wednesday. In terms of national policy, auction procurement is still going on, and the pressure of controlling discounts still exists; Recently, there have been two snowfalls in wheat producing areas, and the drought has eased slightly; Will form a certain pressure on the disk surface. In addition, after the continuous rise, even corn has technical adjustment needs. It is preliminarily judged that corn may have a high adjustment pattern in the future, but considering the current lack of negative factors, the adjustment range is expected to be limited. However, the overall expectation of tight supply and demand, the annual increase in planting costs and labor costs, and the general environment of inflation; Technically, the overall shape of corn is good, and the trend of judging the medium and long-term strength of corn remains unchanged. There may be a reasonable adjustment in the short term after the corn surged, but the overall strong trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to continue the upward trend after reasonable consolidation. Pay close attention to the later policy trends and the weather conditions in wheat producing areas in time. First, the main factors affecting the corn market in the near future (1) The supply of corn is tight in stages before and after the festival, farmers in producing areas are reluctant to sell, and port logistics is tight, which makes the supply of corn limited in stages. 1. On the eve of the Spring Festival, farmers are reluctant to sell their crops. Because farmers repay their loans before the Spring Festival, and most farmers do not recognize the current market price, there is no expected peak of farmers' centralized grain sales in Northeast China. In fact, the main reason why farmers are unwilling to sell their crops is that they have high expectations for the corn market after the Spring Festival. Some farmers who have the conditions have put their corn in storage, saying that they will consider selling it after the holiday or even later. It is also the farmers' reluctance to sell that leads to the corn market in a tight supply period at the beginning of the Spring Festival, which in turn leads to the strong rise of corn in the near future. 2. The logistics is tight and the spot is high. After the New Year's Day, the land transportation in the northeast production area continued to be affected by heavy snow, but the liner still kept sending corn to Guangdong. The data shows that the corn inventory of Guangdong Terminal remained at a high level of more than 300,000 tons in May 438+10. Due to the continuous low temperature weather, corn consumption cannot increase, and the market seems to be relatively calm. However, after the Spring Festival, the situation is not optimistic. After the purchase of China Grain Storage started, the supply of corn in the southern sales area was temporarily affected. At present, the inventory of corn in Guangdong port is about 200,000 tons, which is lower than 300,000 tons before the holiday. The shortage of staged supply may keep the southern corn market rising steadily in February. The north is suppressed by the state's purchasing and storage, and the increase may be limited; The spot market in the domestic north-south market as a whole will maintain a steady and rising trend, thus effectively boosting the futures market. It is reported that the current mainstream price of high-quality corn in Guangdong port is 2200-2220 yuan/ton, and the transaction has been completed. The highest price has reached 2240 yuan/ton, 20-30 yuan/ton higher than before. (2) The drought in the producing areas is expected to reduce the yield of winter wheat. The drought in China's main winter wheat producing areas continues to be serious, and February-April is a relatively critical period for winter wheat growth. The market expects that unfavorable weather will have an impact on wheat yield in the later period, the prospect of wheat production is worrying, and the market speculation atmosphere is strong, further aggravating the upward trend of wheat prices. The picture shows the superposition of the main contracts of corn and wheat. It is reported that since September last year, there has been a lack of effective precipitation in the northern winter wheat areas, and severe meteorological drought in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui and Shaanxi has affected the growth of winter wheat in some areas. According to the agricultural situation of the Ministry of Agriculture, as of February 12 17, the drought-affected areas in six provinces of Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shaanxi and Gansu increased by 86 1 10,000 mu compared with February 7, mainly in Shandong, Hebei and central and northern Henan. In turn, it will promote the sharp rise of wheat and its related grain varieties such as corn. The picture shows the drought distribution map of winter wheat in the north. Recently, there have been two snowfalls in the northern region, and the drought in the wheat producing area has eased (as shown above), which will further suppress the disk. However, with the end of the snowfall in the wheat producing areas, if the wheat irrigation is not effective in the later period, it is expected that the drought will continue or will be re-hyped. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the weather and irrigation in wheat producing areas. After the snowfall on 10, on 13, there was rain and snow in the northern winter wheat areas such as southeastern North China and eastern Huanghuai, and there was heavy snow in some areas. According to the latest meteorological data, from 5: 00 on 13 to 5: 00 on 14, it snowed 1.5-2.5 mm in western Shanxi, parts of northern and southeastern Hebei, south-central Tianjin and central and western Shandong. Among them, the snowfall in Shandong, which has been suffering from drought for a long time, has increased, and the biggest precipitation process has occurred this year. Recently, two consecutive rains and snows of winter wheat in northern China have increased soil moisture in drought-stricken areas, which has a favorable impact on alleviating meteorological drought in drought-stricken areas. The severe drought areas in southern Hebei, eastern Henan, northern Jiangsu and Anhui have shrunk (as shown above). According to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, with the precipitation range gradually moving eastward from 14 to 15, the precipitation in North China, Huanghuai and other places will tend to end, and the daily average temperature in the northern winter wheat area will be below 3℃, which is not suitable for irrigation for the time being. (3), the national policy regulation still exists, the intensity is less than 1, the national reserve auction. In order to stabilize the corn price, the national corn auction is still going on, but with the continuous improvement of the entry threshold of the government corn auction, the transaction volume is gradually shrinking (as shown in the figure below), which basically loses its guiding significance to the market price. At this time, the impact of national reserve auction on corn prices is getting smaller and smaller. The picture shows the statistics of the auction results of corn storage in recent years. 10 On May 3rd, the detailed rules for the auction sale of temporarily stored grain (Northeast corn) were revised, stipulating that the buyers participating in the auction were only feed processing and breeding enterprises in Northeast China. Before the new grain is listed, the cumulative amount of corn purchased by the same purchaser shall not exceed the enterprise's own demand and shall not be resold. Since then, the qualifications of the participating feeding enterprises have been re-examined, resulting in a continuous decline in the auction rate of corn in the national reserve in Northeast China, which is at a low level. 10110/2. Revise the policy corn trading rules again, and stipulate that the buyers of inter-provincial corn auctions are limited to local feed processing and breeding enterprises, and the buyers must provide the daily processing feed production capacity and daily corn demand issued by the grain administrative department, and the number of corn purchased each time will be reduced to 15 days, which will be accumulated in one month. Affected by this, the transaction volume and average transaction price of inter-provincial corn auctions fell sharply, repeating the mistakes of northeast auctions. At this point, the auction sales of corn in the State Reserve have completely changed into a directional sales model, and the guiding significance for spot prices is declining. The national corn auction has less and less influence on the market. 2. Acquisition of national reserves. The continuous auction of the national reserve makes the national treasury's grain source insufficient and needs to be supplemented. From the middle and late June of 1 year, the central grain storage resumed the corn purchasing and storage work in Northeast China. It is reported that China Grain Reserve plans to purchase about 6.5438+million tons of corn from the northeast producing area, and the purchase price is 654.38+0.800 yuan per ton (the new national standard is third class, and the price difference is 40 yuan/ton). Only from the purchasing and storage price, the purchase price of grain in China is not much different from the dry grain on the market. Before the Northeast processing enterprises stopped harvesting before the holiday, the purchasing price of secondary corn in Jilin was generally 1.86 yuan/ton. However, the rules for buying food in China are strict. If the moisture content of corn purchased by the State Reserve this year exceeds 1 percentage point, the new moisture discount standard of 2% will be implemented, while the moisture content in the past few years has exceeded 1.5%. In the past, Dacheng water conservation standard of Jilin deep processing enterprises was 1 percentage point, and the actual purchase price of tidal grain would be lower than 1.2%. The purchase price of the State Reserve is lower than the market price, and most market participants believe that it is unlikely to complete the task of purchasing and storing as scheduled. If so, the short-term impact of the acquisition of the State Reserve on the market may be limited. It is reported that the total amount of corn purchased in North China and Northeast China before the holiday was only about 3 million tons. However, we know that in order to "make way" for the purchase of China Grain Storage, most corn deep processing enterprises in Northeast China began to stop harvesting in the middle and late days of 65438+ 10. At present, most corn processing enterprises have less than two months of inventory, so they can no longer purchase from farmers. Therefore, at that time, some enterprises may face the doom of reducing production and stopping production. If this is the case, then the passive reduction of demand and the reduction of the national reserve price will form a certain policy suppression on the corn disk. (4) The data reported by the US market gives strength to the continuous upward trend of corn in the outer market, which makes the increase limited. On February 9th, USDA released the monthly supply and demand report. The USDA report continues to lower the global and US corn ending inventory data, and the tight supply is expected to continue to form a bullish boost to the market. The decrease of corn production is mainly due to the decrease of corn production in Argentina, the main producing country, and the decrease of corn production in Argentina is mainly due to the previous drought. Demand data, such as feed consumption and total consumption, have increased slightly, indicating that the current market demand is slightly better, but in the end we found that the increase in global corn consumption is mainly caused by the increase in ethanol consumption in the United States; Output has been lowered, consumption has been raised, and the global ending inventory data in this report continues to be lowered. Since June 65438+ 10 last year, the global corn ending inventory has been continuously lowered, which is at a historical low. The American corn ending inventory has reached a new low of 15 years, which has formed a good fundamental support for the domestic and foreign futures markets. However, after the recent continuous rise, corn tends to take profits or limit the short-term continuous rise of corn. The picture shows the global and American corn supply and demand balance. The picture shows the trend chart of corn index. 3. Conclusion: Technically, corn recently broke through the upper pressure level of 2370, and then continued to rise to a new high of 2423. After that, due to technical resistance from above, it showed a consolidation pattern. At present, it seems that there is pressure on the form and support below, and corn will continue to consolidate at a high level in the short term. But technically, corn is still in the rising channel, and the medium and long-term upward trend has not changed. Worried about the drought in the wheat producing areas, farmers in the producing areas are reluctant to sell, and the demand exceeds supply. The spot price of corn has risen, which has boosted the road after the corn festival. However, the recent two snowfalls in the producing areas have slightly eased the speculation of wheat drought. The purchase price of corn in the State Reserve is slightly lower than the market price, or it has been suppressed by the policy. Domestic corn has technical adjustment demand after continuous rise. Even after the corn rose sharply, the adjustment is reasonable now, and short rallies are also considered to reduce their holdings. However, tight supply and demand, rising planting costs and labor costs year by year, and inflation will still dominate the pattern that corn is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the medium and long term, and the trend of multiple orders can continue to be held. Original address; /show.php？ contentid=65478